ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

The next 24-36 hours will be critical in determining 98L’s future, because this is when the models expect it to start gaining latitude and pulling away from the negative influence of the South American coast. The GFS’s SW solution will either be proven right or wrong by 98L’s position sometime tomorrow, and how fast it tries to develop. A further north and quickly developing system could be headed for a Cuba landfall, something that takes longer to reach 15N could be headed for the Yucatan/Belize, and something in between might have the highest intensity ceiling and could go through the channel.

This. The critical component here is latitude. One thing we can’t predict is where the low level consolidates. It could ,as we have seen in past systems that are close to land and influenced by shear, throw a LLC and reform. In this case it would reform farther north. Something to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

Despite the sheared convection. the circ has continued to improve as expected.

[gatorcane]

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https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572895408443260928?s=20&t=Ec4HLYx3GYFApDgUvBIPlg

Consensus of the GFS and Euro is usually the result and that puts this into the Gulf well west of the FL peninsula and more of a NGOM / FL panhandle issue. Florida Big Bend possible too. By the weekend we should have a better idea. Can’t rule out the FL peninsula yet though.

[wxman57]

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

[Tireman4]

HGX mentions it..


LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Saturday and Sunday are still looking to be quite warm with near
record breaking high temperatures possible (see the Climate section
below for the Today through Sunday records). A drier and slightly
cooler airmass will begin to arrive to the area on Monday as our
recent heat ridge gets replaced with a building ridge out west and a
digging trough out east and helps to bring a cold front across
Southeast Texas. Significantly lowering dew points behind the front
will support cooler and more Fall-like overnight low temperatures
(50/60s inland and 60s coast) heading into the midweek period. For
those hoping for some rain, a majority of the area will likely stay
dry. Eyes might eventually need to turn toward the tropics (around
the middle to end of next week) for a potential cyclone moving out
of the western Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

initial curved bands starting to show up despite the relative shear. Easy to see this is well on its way with morning visible. latest microwave also confirming the likely location of the llc.

[AutoPenalti]

initial curved bands starting to show up despite the relative shear. Easy to see this is well on its way with morning visible. latest microwave also confirming the likely location of the llc.

https://i.ibb.co/99Dn6LJ/20220922-1114-f17-91h-98-L-INVEST-30kts-1008mb-11-5-N-65-W-075pc.jpg

Inflow from the Andes mountains should help it organize a bit.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572934865741557763

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2022092212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 650W, 30, 1008, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

[Aric Dunn]

[Poonwalker]

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Ummm.. that's the worst possible trajectory in terms of damage/cost/insurance etc. A ton of people have flocked to the Tampa Bay area from NY and Cali and are sitting on the water with their new toys. Good grief..

[tropicwatch]

Guessing this mornings recon flight was canceled.

[cane5]

Really spread out looks like it’s being sheared pretty strong at this point.

[NAVAIDNICK]

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Ummm.. that's the worst possible trajectory in terms of damage/cost/insurance etc. A ton of people have flocked to the Tampa Bay area from NY and Cali and are sitting on the water with their new toys. Good grief..

This has me very concerned. I'm usually a lurker on here, learning from all you wonderful people. I'm in North Port (Southern Sarasota County) and have been here since 2012. We rode out Irma an were very lucky. I didn't even lose satellite TV during the storm! Anyways, I know how respected Wxman57 is around here so when he speaks, I listen. I know it's early still but this was not the post I wanted to read this morning! I'm going to recheck my supplies today and try to beat the rush just in case. I pray for anyone who ends up in this storm's eventual track. Thank you all for letting us laypeople learn from you.

[Blown Away]

I think this situation will escalate quickly over the next 24 hours. Starting with what appears to be a developing COC well off the SA coast and increasing NHC odds at 2pm and by tomorrow PTC/TD is likely to be declared and Cayman, Jamaica, Cuba, and near SFL/Keys likely in NHC cone for a hurricane... JMHO

[cycloneye]

I think this situation will escalate quickly over the next 24 hours. Starting with what appears to be a developing COC well off the SA coast and increasing NHC odds at 2pm and by tomorrow PTC/TD is likely to be declared and Cayman, Jamaica, Cuba, and near SFL/Keys likely in NHC cone for a hurricane... JMHO

Also, tommorow morning recon will fly.

[PTPatrick]

Obviously waiting til we have a TD or TS and defined low on the map before latching onto any model solutions. But, I am in the FL camp vs central or western gulf. Climatologically long track carribean storms (from eastern carrib as opposed to bay of Campeche or western carrib home grown) have a hard time getting into the north central and western gulf in October. I am hard pressed to think a major with a similar origin/track that didn’t turn before reaching the the northern gulf. I am sure somebody will come up with one. I know we are bordering on this being end of sept/early October so if there IS a window it’s probably now

[Edwards Limestone]

Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.

[cane5]

Interesting dynamic with a strong high Pressure ridge in the Atlantic and strong one in the western gulf and the jet stream strong across the Southern US. Still think the instilled trough we’ve seen in the gulf stream plays a role. Lots of variables going forward.

[p1nheadlarry]

I think this situation will escalate quickly over the next 24 hours. Starting with what appears to be a developing COC well off the SA coast and increasing NHC odds at 2pm and by tomorrow PTC/TD is likely to be declared and Cayman, Jamaica, Cuba, and near SFL/Keys likely in NHC cone for a hurricane... JMHO

Define "well off" the SA coast, the microwave image and last fix puts the COC just west of Isla Margarita