ATL: IAN - Models

[Bimms]

I'm in Houston (used to live in South Florida) and I keep watching these models and reading your discussion and seeing the west trend, starting to wonder if I need to start prepping.

[Tireman4]

I'm in Houston (used to live in South Florida) and I keep watching these models and reading your discussion and seeing the west trend, starting to wonder if I need to start prepping.

It is always good to have your kits stocked and plans in place, no matter where you live. This is that time of the year.

[3090]

Somebody is out lunch! Surely we find out in a few days.

https://i.postimg.cc/SsnWfT4Y/D89-B81-DE-50-A1-48-C5-98-A3-DEE104-CD8-BC5.jpg

Wow, that's as tight of a cluster as I've seen from the Euro ensembles in a while; pretty much Tampa Bay south...

98L is still too far south for those to pan out, IMO. I believe we will end up with a split down the middle kf the EURO and the GFS, before all is said and done. I think both models are too extreme in forecasting the strength of the trough.

[SFLcane]

Good chunk of EPS is over central and southern florida.

[Blown Away]

06z ECMWF... Finishes at 90 Hours.


06z ECMWF Trend...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm in Houston (used to live in South Florida) and I keep watching these models and reading your discussion and seeing the west trend, starting to wonder if I need to start prepping.

TBH, it's really only the GFS that is shifting westward. Most of the other global models are east. Any could be right.

[Stormcenter]

But the NHC puts a lot of weight on what the GFS
says. Anyway you just can’t discount it like many others
would like to do. It may be seeing something the
other models have yet to pick up on. It will be interesting
to see how it plays out.

I'm in Houston (used to live in South Florida) and I keep watching these models and reading your discussion and seeing the west trend, starting to wonder if I need to start prepping.

TBH, it's really only the GFS that is shifting westward. Most of the other global models are east. Any could be right.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/uto2bMf.gif
06z ECMWF... Finishes at 90 Hours.

https://i.imgur.com/4zRAN5z.gif
06z ECMWF Trend...

Woah! Now that is a northward shift on the euro.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

But the NHC puts a lot of weight on what the GFS
says. Anyway you just can’t discount it like many others
would like to do. It may be seeing something the
other models have yet to pick up on. It will be interesting
to see how it plays out.

I'm in Houston (used to live in South Florida) and I keep watching these models and reading your discussion and seeing the west trend, starting to wonder if I need to start prepping.

TBH, it's really only the GFS that is shifting westward. Most of the other global models are east. Any could be right.

I'm definitely not discounting it (especially because I am also in Houston now), just that any could be right. It's also hard to discount the fact the Euro/CMC/et cetera are all significantly further east. We'll know better when the LLC actually develops.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 5284962307

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

But the NHC puts a lot of weight on what the GFS
says. Anyway you just can’t discount it like many others
would like to do. It may be seeing something the
other models have yet to pick up on. It will be interesting
to see how it plays out.

I'm in Houston (used to live in South Florida) and I keep watching these models and reading your discussion and seeing the west trend, starting to wonder if I need to start prepping.

TBH, it's really only the GFS that is shifting westward. Most of the other global models are east. Any could be right.

The TVCN output generally shows you roughly how the NHC weighs the models. And that just shifted slightly right at the 12z early runs.

[SFLcane]

Wow...

[chris_fit]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

Just crazy that almost all the EPS are further east (well east) than the OP GFS. Like not even close. Who will win?

[SFLcane]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

Just crazy that almost all the EPS are further east (well east) than the OP GFS. Like not even close. Who will win?

My money is on the ecmwf and its ensembles but we will see.

[p1nheadlarry]

Well eventually the models will have to come to some sort of agreement down the road, they usually do and my thoughts now are just keep splitting the difference between the GFS and Euro, then compare that landfall location point to the TVCN track, and you might be able to make a non SWAG using that data. Not sure if one will totally cave into the other, but it has happen frequently in the past history of model tracking. 98L is the quintessential type of storm to track with slow development and so many model uncertainties att. Once the models lock in, and they will, and hopefully sooner rather than later (but with this system no too sure how soon it will occur) the hunt will be over and we go into storm watching mode for those not affected and sadly full hurricane preps for all others in the path. Be great if it didn’t have to make a landfall but that scenario seems unlikely. Would hate to see another major hit any gulf coast region, but especially Louisiana or the Mexico beach areas.

We'll need for 98L to develop into a better defined low or even a TD for when the next batch of initial conditions can be assimilated into the subsequent model runs before we have a good idea. Short term evolution more important where this storm may go than the synoptic wave pattern down the road will be IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

I started the genny today out of respect to the euro and its ensembles.

[Beachside]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

I started the genny today out of respect to the euro and its ensembles.

Same here

[ronjon]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

Just crazy that almost all the EPS are further east (well east) than the OP GFS. Like not even close. Who will win?

My money is on the ecmwf and its ensembles but we will see.

The European ensembles are definitely trending east with what appears to be a sharper, deeper trough. Also the more northward path thru the Caribbean is playing a role on ensemble mean future track through S Florida. Still a week away so we all know how much can change.

[Stellar]

I think a LOT of people are going to be test-firing their generators over the next few days....here we go....

[p1nheadlarry]

I think a LOT of people are going to be test-firing their generators over the next few days....here we go....

I should probably invest in one, but thankfully GFS = bad and Euro = good so we're safe here on the northern gulf /s