ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#781 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:08 am

LarryWx wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.


I agree with you about late Sept climo not favoring the NE tracks across the S half of FL. But that's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA.


Also, we will be on the Sep/Oct cusp by the time the action takes place next week. There cannot be any real climatological difference between 9/28 and 10/1
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#782 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:11 am

Sorey, been here a long time but don’t post often…I keep seeing posts about how it would take an October like trough to do what the Euro says and how unlikely that would be…I don’t get why people think it would be so unlikely given this turn would happen the last few days of September, what am I missing here?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#783 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:11 am

FWIW, early indicator of the 12z ICON (the GFS ally) is a significant move towards Euro

In fact, Mon/Tue position has it nearing Key West, and a Miami landfall Wed am
Last edited by sma10 on Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#784 Postby Cat5James » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:12 am

There will be a stalled from across C FL the 28th. The trough will be there.. question is how deep it goes.
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#785 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:14 am

In white is the position of 98L from 72-120hrs according to the model consensus. The slight NE shift has put the track consensus over MPIs that get all the way into the 880s. 98L's biggest limiting factor will probably be how quickly it'll develop. If we get a TC between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, a Cat 4+ hurricane is likely. However, if this takes until Sunday or maybe even early Monday to develop, then Cuba could be spared from a MH landfall.
Image

Development within 48 hours is indeed possible. 98L is starting to gain latitude, and several models show the UL flow becoming less hostile tomorrow into Saturday, decreasing to ~20-25 kt (or less) and directed more WSW instead of SW/SSW. The HWRF is the quickest to turn 98L's UL environment favorable, but the Euro isn't far behind.
Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#786 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:19 am

So does the Euro path mean 98L is more of a Cuba/South Florida/East Coast threat?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#787 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:25 am

Image
06z ICON… NE shift
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#788 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 am

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tCr67w1p/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON… NE shift


Lol, yeah wait until you see the 12z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#789 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:30 am

sma10 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tCr67w1p/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON… NE shift


Lol, yeah wait until you see the 12z


Has not run yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#790 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tCr67w1p/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON… NE shift


Lol, yeah wait until you see the 12z


Has not run yet.


I've seen it. It goes over Miami
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#791 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:32 am

sma10 wrote:FWIW, early indicator of the 12z ICON (the GFS ally) is a significant move towards Euro

In fact, Mon/Tue position has it nearing Key West, and a Miami landfall Wed am


Pics? Is this on weathermodels?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#792 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:36 am

sma10 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Lol, yeah wait until you see the 12z


Has not run yet.


I've seen it. It goes over Miami


Not sure were you saw this but it has not even run yet on weathermodels.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#793 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:37 am

sma10 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Lol, yeah wait until you see the 12z


Has not run yet.


I've seen it. It goes over Miami


Please source your information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#794 Postby Gums » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:38 am

Salute!

Looking at the surface forecasts for next 4 or 5 days, seems a cold front and a high behind it is headed for Florida.

From past experience that usually helps steer the storms to the northeast or even east once they enter the Gulf. Only one I was in that didn't turn eastward until landfall was Opal back in 95. The front came thru and also dimished the storm's intensity from healthy 4 to minimal 3. Next day was super fall and cooler, making no electricity/HVAC tolerable. Even Michael 3 years ago this time of year turned during the last few hours as we were about to head northwest to escape.

from the Panhandle, Gums opines....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#795 Postby Chemmers » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:39 am

think it is just about to run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#796 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:42 am

tolakram wrote:
sma10 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Has not run yet.


I've seen it. It goes over Miami


Please source your information.


Well, unfortunately I'm not currently in a position to attach any images. But the run is complete and easily accessible at weather.us
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#797 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:43 am

I know everyone wants to know where 98L
is going (assuming it develops) but to keep
on jumping on every model run and say it’s
going there is ridiculous at this still early stage.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#798 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:43 am

ICON 9/22 12Z is blank at weather.us Their interface is a bit obtuse.

12Z GFS is running
Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#799 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:44 am

Stormcenter wrote:I know everyone wants to know where 98L
is going (assuming it develops) but to keep
on jumping on every model run and say it’s
going there is ridiculous at this still early stage.


This is the models thread, this is where we jump on model runs. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#800 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:45 am

sma10 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
sma10 wrote:
I've seen it. It goes over Miami


Please source your information.


Well, unfortunately I'm not currently in a position to attach any images. But the run is complete and easily accessible at weather.us


Gotcha, if so this is pretty huge. I used to have this subscribtion.
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