ATL: IAN - Models

[Weatherboy1]

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1572988203883167744?s=20&t=l4XYLa344cm773QK23K-tQ

This is the important thing to take away from the midday model cycle. Everything pretty much shifting more toward Euro idea rather than the other way around. GFS something like 100 miles further East in the Gulf now vs the last cycle

[chris_fit]

12Z GEFS @ 6 days

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Total cave towards Euro

[chris_fit]

12z GEFS @ 180 hours

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 12z GEFS is split between faster with NE turn towards big bend or slower/meandering into central GOM/central gulf coast through 240 hrs. Very few members strike Florida south of Sarasota area.

[Iceresistance]

Also on the discussion post, but the Recon that is primed for 98L may help with the models significantly.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573000974872055808

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like 12z GEFS is split between faster with NE turn towards big bend or slower/meandering into central GOM/central gulf coast through 240 hrs. Very few members strike Florida south of Sarasota area.

Yeah I’m not particularly happy that the fast camp pushes this storm in between Sarasota and big bend, but I’m thinking that’s plausible, assuming the setup doesn’t change in some way. A few members in the 950’s in that group

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF coming in weaker through 60 hours. Position relatively the same. Maybe a little south of the 06z.

[Stormcenter]

Not sure I would call it that especially when
this is still over a week out. None of models are right
so far because nothing has happened yet.
Heck we don’t even have a PTC yet.

https://i.imgur.com/EHQyyo7.gif
12z GFS... Total cave towards Euro

[Iceresistance]

Euro stronger and further north again up to +72 hours.

[Blown Away]

Euro stronger and further north again up to +72 hours.

12z ECMWF... Little stronger and N through 72 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

This run of the Euro looks like it may actually curve out east of the Peninsula and through the Bahamas. Either that or right up through the spine of the state.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 96 Hours, close call for Jamaica... Little R of the previous tracks and getting stronger...

[ncapps]

Euros gonna have a fish storm before we know it.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 120 Hours strong hurricane moving NNW over Cuba towards SFL

[shah83]

Euro is almost exactly the CMC run. This is about that super-deep trough...

[wx98]

Euros gonna have a fish storm before we know it.

Technically it won't be a fish. Kinda impossible once something is in the Caribbean. However, yes it could be an OTS storm relative to CONUS.

[ncapps]

Euros gonna have a fish storm before we know it.

Technically it won't be a fish. Kinda impossible once something is in the Caribbean. However, yes it could be an OTS storm relative to CONUS.

After I posted that I thought I should of clarified that exact point. Thank you.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 120 Hours NNW towards Keys/SW Florida

[hurricaneCW]

Euros gonna have a fish storm before we know it.

Technically it won't be a fish. Kinda impossible once something is in the Caribbean. However, yes it could be an OTS storm relative to CONUS.

Hard to believe it would miss Florida completely given its starting position.

Also strong high building over it so I don't see it hitting Florida and getting swept OTS either.