ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Ok where is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

[AutoPenalti]

Well that Euro run almost made me pee.

[SFLcane]

Well that Euro run almost made me pee.

Time to prep!

[Tireman4]

Ok were is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

I know he said he was really busy today. I have seen him pop in twice.

[SFLcane]

Texted with @AndyHazelton and asked him his current thoughts after the most recent model runs including the Euro and this is what he had to say. This is begining to get real.

"Probably not a bad idea to start prepping"

[wxman57]

Ok where is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday. I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely). Looks like TVCN was delayed.

[SFLcane]

Ok where is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday. I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely).

You heard it here first guys!!!

South Florida time to get ready!

[psyclone]

You can easily see evidence of the deep autumnal trough that's going to pluck whatever is down there up and out on the NWS forecasts in the eastern US with their temp forecasts mid next week. There's a serious shot of chilly weather on the way. This why i have not been buying the western solutions. Even from my perch in tampa bay i suspect if anything i end up west of the eventual track..

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Up in latitud and pressure down to 1006 mbs.

AL, 98, 2022092218, , BEST, 0, 123N, 663W, 30, 1006, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

[toad strangler]

Ok where is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday. I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely). Looks like TVCN was delayed.

[caneseddy]

Ok where is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday. I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely). Looks like TVCN was delayed.

Been a while since I heard you say that for us in South Florida. Was going to do last minute preps Saturday morning. May move that up to tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[SouthernBreeze]

I just looked at my daily forecast & it's showing 62 mph winds for next Wed night

** But thats Accuweather

[InfernoFlameCat]

When Wxman57 says hurricane strike, you best be prepared. Most experienced poster here is him Imo.

[boca]

The storm isn’t even a depression yet but I’ll follow the early warming signs

[wxman57]

I just looked at my daily forecast & it's showing 62 mph winds for next Wed night

** But thats Accuweather

They're clearly using the operational ECMWF model for your forecasts.

[Teban54]

LLC is now clear as day, with some scattered convection firing from it. Just need shear to drop and it should be ready to go.

[Comradez]

I checked this invest this morning as the sun was rising on the visible satellite, and it looked like a complete mess of an open wave. Now I check back, and somehow despite there having been nearly no central convection, it seems like the low-level center has tightened up considerably. I swear, I'll never understand how some storms can tighten up in such conditions while other storms will have vigorous convection for days and days and still not consolidate a center. Truly mysterious. But the models were definitely onto something....

[Weatherboy1]

18z Best Track:

Up in latitud and pressure down to 1006 mbs.

AL, 98, 2022092218, , BEST, 0, 123N, 663W, 30, 1006, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

https://i.imgur.com/VtVebdI.png

Getting further away from the SA coast is the first step to this thing coming together. Sheer dropping tomorrow is the next.

[shah83]

Hmm, the eastern part of the 12z EPS are all composed of very weak storms. It looks like the stronger the storm, the further west it will go, with this particular setup.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ok where is wxman57??

I know you saw the Euro with a Cat 3 over South Florida and what has me concerned is all this is within 5 days yes 5 not 7-10. We have been overdue surely.

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday. I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely).

You heard it here first guys!!!

South Florida time to get ready!

I've got several friends who live in South Florida and I've warned them about this...I guess the good news is that if it hits the very southern part of Florida, it's going to be over fairly quick, then it's out to sea after that as opposed to if it hits a nothern gulf state, then it could cause lots of havoc in multiple states inland and be a multi-day event..........