ATL: IAN - Models

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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#901 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:47 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS did not shift east very much if at all.


OP looks to be essentially down the middle of this group as well unlike yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#902 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:50 pm

psyclone wrote:The EURO is one or 2 runs from missing all of FL to the east!. Still time for that solution to evolve. or for that to evolve and then flip back! Clarity from club NHC will be most helpful.


Yep, that's exactly what I thought we would start to see with the Euro and looks like it's happening. We'll see if the eastward shifts continue. May end up being just a carib storm and then out to sea..........Let's hope the trend continues anyway.... Crossing our fingers!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#903 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:56 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:120 to 144 Hours Euro... Putting all of South Florida from Jupiter to the Keys on the dirty side of the storm.


Almost an identical track to Wilma.

Euro has been very consistent in the past several runs with Hermine/Ian hooking into the peninsula from Tampa Bay south unlike the GFS which has gone from Panama City Beach to Lake Charles and back to Pensacola.

And the Euro landfall is inside of 5 days which takes confidence up a notch. But like everyone has said lets wait till the storm actually forms.

Good thing I have a Publix next door to my building so I can just walk there instead of driving lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#904 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:59 pm

If anyone has the 168 hour 12Z UKMET map and is able to post it, please do so. Thanks in advance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#905 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:00 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#906 Postby Lightning48 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:00 pm

Again one run doesn't change anything except that models change is some interpretation compared to its last run. The Euro for some reason and possibly correctly is expecting quite a deeper trough. If that trough is over estimated that can change the track sometimes 2-300 miles . My point as many of our astute posters have mentioned until it forms and we have a COC to work with, these models may be exciting but not actual. As they say trend is your friend. The Euro just switched so why should we believe that any more than the GFS which caved earlier- Just my thoughts-
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#907 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:00 pm

ECMWF avoids NC to the east. Whew what a trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#908 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:If anyone has the 168 hour 12Z UKMET map and is able to post it, please do so. Thanks in advance.

Not seeing it yet on weathermodels, just 0Z


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#909 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:04 pm

NAVGEM just east of Florida:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#910 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:06 pm

gatorcane wrote:NAVGEM just east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/vZhj7JFP/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh84-138.gif


THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#911 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:07 pm

Pretty big early season trough. I'm guessing that the recurving typhoons in the WPAC have had a hand in amplifying the trough more than it normally would be.

Just took a look at the forecasted temps in other areas for next week. Western North Carolina has a low of 41 next Wednesday night. That's a bit nippy for late September, even in the WNC mountains.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#912 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:11 pm

toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:NAVGEM just east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/vZhj7JFP/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh84-138.gif


THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"


One can not invision the madness across South Florida if this comes to pass. We are talking 5 days away. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#913 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:11 pm

The 12Z EPS 156 mean is quite a bit east of the 0Z EPS 168 mean. There are many tracks that go over far SE FL (mode and mean of the members) and even a decent number east of S FL/over NW Bahamas.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#914 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:NAVGEM just east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/vZhj7JFP/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh84-138.gif


THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"


One can not invision the madness across South Florida if this comes to pass. We are talking 5 days away. :double:
Irma wasnt long ago, full preps in sofla for that one
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#915 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:14 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z EPS 156 mean is quite a bit east of the 0Z EPS 168 mean. There are many tracks that go over far SE FL and even a decent number east of S FL/over NW Bahamas.



What site you using? Mine is only out to 84hrs

Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#916 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:15 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"


One can not invision the madness across South Florida if this comes to pass. We are talking 5 days away. :double:
Irma wasnt long ago, full preps in sofla for that one


Most have no idea what its like going through a major hurricane. South Florida metro dade, broward, west palm got lucky other then some gusts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#917 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:20 pm

chris_fit wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z EPS 156 mean is quite a bit east of the 0Z EPS 168 mean. There are many tracks that go over far SE FL and even a decent number east of S FL/over NW Bahamas.



What site you using? Mine is only out to 84hrs

https://i.imgur.com/lslB4EM.png


Stormvista from a poster at another BB. More on the 156: There is quite an E shift of the mean to far SE FL, where the mode also now is. The mean member speed is quicker thus allowing for more members to be taken NE early with the trough. The mode on the 0Z was further NW near a Ft. Myers to Melbourne track.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#918 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:22 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#919 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:24 pm

Breaking news. TVCN now crosses Florida Penninsula.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#920 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm

12Z EPS - Florida Florida Florida

Image
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