ATL: IAN - Models

[Teban54]

On the 12z Euro operational, it looks like the Cuba landfall has minimal effects on intensity: the pressure only rose from 980 to 982 while crossing Cuba, and begins deepening immediately off the coast (peaking at 967 before Florida landfall).

Also, global models often underestimate intensity due to resolution issues (Euro has Fiona's current pressure as 944 when it's actually 936).

[Weatherboy1]

Breaking news. TVCN now crosses Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/ODuaTMA.png

Thanks for posting. Worth noting that even GFS starting to “bend toward the bend” idea of the Euro, etc. later in its run … though nowhere near as sharply or as far east

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS - Florida Florida Florida

https://i.imgur.com/Brb5GlG.png

More specifically S FL, S FL, S FL. But it is just one run and it is still 5-6+ days out. So, lots can change. Besides, even on this run there are some that miss FL to the SE.

[Stormcenter]

Hey maybe the EURO is on crack? Sorry
I couldn’t resist. Seriously though lots
can still change so I wouldn’t start the
evacuation process just yet in Miami.

[hohnywx]

On the 12z Euro operational, it looks like the Cuba landfall has minimal effects on intensity: the pressure only rose from 980 to 982 while crossing Cuba, and begins deepening immediately off the coast.

Makes sense...Cuba is narrow there and not very mountainous.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1573033069770055685

[skyline385]

12Z EPS - Florida Florida Florida

Yikes need to check up on supplies today, the issue is the short time frame if the Euro verifies. I know we don’t have a center yet but no harm in being prepared.


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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573035545474785287

[LarryWx]

 What a concentration over and just SE of S FL on the 12Z EPS! Note that those that cross S FL pretty much don't get further west than 84W in the NW Caribbean. Those that miss FL to the SE don't get past about 81W in the NW Carib.

[skyline385]

 What a concentration over and just SE of S FL on the 12Z EPS! Note that those that cross S FL pretty much don't get further west than 84W in the NW Caribbean. Those that miss FL to the SE don't get past about 81W in the NW Carib.

Yea the concentration over SFL is concerning





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[Blown Away]

Let's hope the Euro doesn't verify...

[Spacecoast]

Euro ensemble mean, and operational are in alignment...

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/flJoeRB.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Y9ojEWF.jpg

Let's hope the Euro doesn't verify...

Am I reading that right? 140 mph gusts right before landfall???? Wilma didn't get past 90 mph gusts and it did a whole lot of damage in SE Florida....

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/flJoeRB.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Y9ojEWF.jpg

Let's hope the Euro doesn't verify...

Everglades National Park would be about perfect if that verifies, too bad they will be closed.

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/flJoeRB.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Y9ojEWF.jpg

Let's hope the Euro doesn't verify...

Am I reading that right? 140 mph gusts right before landfall???? Wilma didn't get past 90 mph gusts and it did a whole lot of damage in SE Florida....

Most models struggle with winds inland, wouldn’t dig too much into it especially gusts


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[SoupBone]

Happy Hour GFS is going to be interesting. If it caves to the Euro, South Florida to the Peninsula is going to be hopping. It's only a 5-6 day timeline, so not in the fantasyland like we usually have.

[jlauderdal]

 What a concentration over and just SE of S FL on the 12Z EPS! Note that those that cross S FL pretty much don't get further west than 84W in the NW Caribbean. Those that miss FL to the SE don't get past about 81W in the NW Carib.

Yea the concentration over SFL is concerning

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220922/63e9f4a677f4e18a2366a9761f0f0384.jpg
We need the trend to continue, a tick-back west isn't helpful to us, and with the GFS coming east, its euro ensembles/wxman57(he stood firm though all the gfs nonsense) or bust at this point. TVCN will be joining the party soon, not good.

[Jelmergraaff]

This is a pretty rare situation in which the spread of the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) excludes the ECMWF Operational scenario, crossing over SW-Florida. Of course, this is subject to change, but in general it is quite rare to see not even a single GEFS-member going for a solution as far SE as the Euro. Not saying the Euro-scenario is impossible, but in my eyes not too likely regarding the fact that with the GEFSv16 update two years ago the model spread was already increased quite a lot. EPS (Euro Ensemble) spread - and some other models - however do include several members showing a more westerly option.

For now, I would see the Operational ECMWF scenario as one of the SE-most outliers and therefore not too likely. Taking into account all models, you'd probably get somewhere like the TVCN.

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/flJoeRB.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Y9ojEWF.jpg

Let's hope the Euro doesn't verify...

Am I reading that right? 140 mph gusts right before landfall???? Wilma didn't get past 90 mph gusts and it did a whole lot of damage in SE Florida....

Most models struggle with winds inland, wouldn’t dig too much into it especially gusts


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The swamp is plenty warm enough to sustain winds

[Iceresistance]

We need to keep in mind that this setup is 5-6 days out and anything will change as we get closer. With one example being a slower trough, which can allow the storm to really get going in the Western Caribbean and into the Western GoM with weaker wind shear.