ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Gaston probably looks its best yet now. I'm a bit surprised they haven't gone a bit higher for intensity. I'm guessing 60 kt might be its final BT peak.

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

The last ASCAT pass still had 55 kt winds despite its decay in the last few hours. Cooler water taking its toll.

Could it have been a hurricane briefly at one point?

[HurricaneBelle]

it's running out of gas...ton

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Is Gaston still trying to form an eye?

[Iceresistance]

Is Gaston still trying to form an eye?
https://i.postimg.cc/g2Jk6RD1/image.png

Goodness! He's refusing to give in until he reaches Hurricane status!

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

936
WTNT43 KNHC 231457
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning.
Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and
western sides of the circulation. A recent scatterometer pass
showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory
and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The
tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the
northwestern quadrant based on these data.

The cyclone has managed to retain its tropical characteristics for
now. Global model guidance suggests moderate to strong vertical
wind shear should gradually strip away convection from the core over
the next day or so. In spite of the relatively hostile conditions,
Gaston has managed to maintain its strength, therefore only gradual
weakening is forecast until the storm merges with a shortwave trough
in about 36 hours and becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The official
intensity forecast has been shifted slightly higher than the
previous advisory due to the initial intensity and is slightly
stronger than the consensus model aids.

The storm is moving east-southeastward at an estimated 120/6 kt. A
sharp turn to the south is expected shortly while Gaston traverses
the periphery of a mid-level ridge building to the north.
Afterward, the cyclone should generally move toward the
west-southwest and west, completing an anticyclone turn, through the
end of the period. The NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
northward once again from the previous forecast and lies between the
HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and are spreading to the central Azores.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday. This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 40.2N 29.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[galaxy401]

Strange, I woke up expecting both Fiona and Gaston to be weaker and they both have strengthened back to their previous intensities. Persistent system.

[Beef Stew]

Not that I think it’ll get classified, and not that I have any evidence to suggest it other than the eye-test… but I personally think Gaston has at least been (briefly) a hurricane at some point over the past few days.

[tolakram]

I'm in the Hurricane Gaston camp.

[LarryWx]

I'm in the Hurricane Gaston camp.
https://i.imgur.com/9yDQiAI.png

If so, we're very likely looking at five hurricanes this month, tied for the most in September during the active era back to 1995!

[Sciencerocks]

I think this is probably a hurricane and looking at the data I also believe that it could be a tropical storm for another 4-5 days.

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Azores might be a caught a little off guard with Gaston considering how persistent he has been maintaining its intensity. Still looks like a compact Tropical cyclone moving over those islands.

[Sciencerocks]

[us89]

Bye bye convection…

[ChrisH-UK]

Bye bye convection…

Don't worry as it swings south east the convection might come back.

[Sciencerocks]