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CrazyC83 wrote:That's less than 5 days away too. That's going to have to show up on the first forecast if they call this PTC 9 or TD 9 tomorrow morning (say, at the 5 am advisory).
skyline385 wrote:sponger wrote:GFS running showing a 957 system moving N through Western Cuba. Florida may be in big big trouble!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022092300&fh=96
Just completed the turn, headed towards Ft. Meyers probably this run
https://i.imgur.com/T0CfGdq.png
HurricaneBelle wrote:Landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area. This would spare the nightmare Tampa Bay surge scenario but still bring a significant wind event to the area.
https://i.imgur.com/hXAXgvd.png
CrazyC83 wrote:I believe that extra balloon launches to determine the strength of the trough, as well as Gonzo going into the Gulf and western Caribbean, are key now. If that's 5 days away, we need to get a better idea.
PandaCitrus wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I believe that extra balloon launches to determine the strength of the trough, as well as Gonzo going into the Gulf and western Caribbean, are key now. If that's 5 days away, we need to get a better idea.
Do you think Tampa is still under a threat or it won't get that far north?
HurricaneBelle wrote:Landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area. This would spare the nightmare Tampa Bay surge scenario but still bring a significant wind event to the area.
https://i.imgur.com/hXAXgvd.png
Teban54 wrote:As if that wasn't bad enough, GFS stalls it for 18 hours...
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:GFS is considerably quicker at deepening 98L vs the Euro as well.
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