ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

Manually made a comparison loop

[aspen]

Looking at the 06z HWRF-P, it seems that the best UL conditions will be from around 6z Sunday through 15z Monday. By Monday afternoon, the UL anticyclone becomes a little displaced, and outflow in the southern side of the storm might be restricted.

[skyline385]

With the Euro moving slightly west and the HWRF latching onto a vortex downshear, we might see shifts west in the official track guidance i am guessing.


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[SFLcane]

With the Euro moving slightly west and the HWRF latching onto a vortex downshear, we might see shifts west in the official track guidance i am guessing.


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 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/1573298833295032321

[SFLcane]

The center is just moving west northwest.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At this point, what's the most interesting to me is how considerably different the 06z GFS and ECMWF are in terms of intensity through 96 hours. 06z GFS has a major hurricane hitting Cuba; the 06z ECMWF has a tropical storm. Both of which are known to have a strong and weak bias, respectfully. NHC forecast looks dead on so far, as usual.

[SFLcane]

With the Euro moving slightly west and the HWRF latching onto a vortex downshear, we might see shifts west in the official track guidance i am guessing.


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https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/1573298833295032321?s=20&t=NXaK5mFSz-g3VqVc2YjQBA

I mean the HWRF clearly shows it happening and that dude claiming that nothing is going to change regarding the Florida landfall location is just wrong and ignorant. Nothing is set in stone until it makes a landfall.


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[SFLcane]

6z eps still clustered around South Florida. Not much change as 57 mentioned.

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[SFLcane]

Another vantage point of the 06z euro ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573303806573809664

[tolakram]

Trend with previous run

[gatorcane]

12Z has shifted west closer to Tampa area:

[SFLcane]

12Z has shifted west closer to Tampa area:

https://i.postimg.cc/441wZHLy/09-L-tracks-12z.png

Not much has changed.

[sma10]

12Z has shifted west closer to Tampa area:

https://i.postimg.cc/441wZHLy/09-L-tracks-12z.png

Only 24 hours ago the GEFS mean was in the Central Gulf. Its lacked any form of consistency, to say the least

[SFLcane]

I have my money on the most consistent ECMWF and its mean which are still across South Florida. GFS is likely as stated many times to far west still and its been all over the place.

[tolakram]

The far west GFS is wrong IMO, but I think the Euro will continue to adjust west as the GFS moves east. I think the GFS has the short term figured out better, but then is useless after that.

[caneman]

I have my money on the most consistent ECMWF and its mean which are still across South Florida. GFS is likely as stated many times to far west still and its been all over the place.

https://i.postimg.cc/bNLPgTHY/tcvn.jpg

Tampa or Ft. Myers coming from South to North is only a 30-50 mile adjustment east or west. I'm not putting my money on either wIth such a small margin of error. Both need to be prepared. CHARLEY proved a small jog can be massive on impacts.

[skyline385]

06Z EPS zoomed in, there seems to be a group which goes through SFL and a group (from center relocation maybe) which is westwards.




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[cheezyWXguy]

06Z EPS zoomed in, there seems to be a group which goes through SFL and a group (from center relocation maybe) which is westwards.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/91f69f92d33818a0a1458b665c8e8b66.jpg

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Note that the stronger members are on the west side, and the euro is underdoing intensity. Current gfs depiction is not exactly unreasonable in either track or strength given the environment

[Blown Away]

12Z has shifted west closer to Tampa area:

https://i.postimg.cc/441wZHLy/09-L-tracks-12z.png

12z guidance going over the skinny part of Cuba, like Charley, which can allow for higher intensity before Florida landfall.