ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

06Z EPS zoomed in, there seems to be a group which goes through SFL and a group (from center relocation maybe) which is westwards.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/91f69f92d33818a0a1458b665c8e8b66.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There is has not been any center relocation that i am aware off its some eddys rotating around the broader llc. But either way the mean in black is still across South Florida. We wait and watch

[skyline385]

06Z EPS zoomed in, there seems to be a group which goes through SFL and a group (from center relocation maybe) which is westwards.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/91f69f92d33818a0a1458b665c8e8b66.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Note that the stronger members are on the west side, and the euro is underdoing intensity. Current gfs depiction is not exactly unreasonable in either track or strength given the environment

Yea, the GFS has also been pretty good this year for track guidance. HWRF also shows a center relocation downshear soon and it has been very accurate in the short term range.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cjrciadt]

12Z has shifted west closer to Tampa area:

https://i.postimg.cc/441wZHLy/09-L-tracks-12z.png

12z guidance going over the skinny part of Cuba, like Charley, which can allow for higher intensity before Florida landfall.

Correct, similar sized storm perhaps too. Unless it gains time exiting Cuba and stalls of FL

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro has been very consistent with the south of Ft Meyers idea now for many runs. It makes way more sense with the Tampa/ Sarasota strike such a rare climo entry location.

With that said the complete miss of FL peninsula is getting less likely by the minute.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro has been very consistent with the south of Ft Meyers idea now for many runs. It makes way more sense with the Tampa/ Sarasota strike such a rare climo entry location.

With that said the complete miss of FL peninsula is getting less likely by the minute.

It's literally a 50 mile location so any wobble here and there can make differences.

[stpetenailbiter]

06Z EPS zoomed in, there seems to be a group which goes through SFL and a group (from center relocation maybe) which is westwards.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/91f69f92d33818a0a1458b665c8e8b66.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There is has not been any center relocation that i am aware off its some eddys rotating around the broader llc. But either way the mean in black is still across South Florida. We wait and watch

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr6rPPY3/epshh.jpg

I'm curious what effect the trough will have on shearing the system if it does follow some of the westernmost ensemble members. But those westernmost ensemble members are the strongest of any on the run. NHC mentions intensity likely capping as it approaches shore in their latest discussion. Can any mets lurking explain the disparity between the discussion and those Euro members bombing out?

Long time lurker, first time poster.

[caneman]

Euro has been very consistent with the south of Ft Meyers idea now for many runs. It makes way more sense with the Tampa/ Sarasota strike such a rare climo entry location.

With that said the complete miss of FL peninsula is getting less likely by the minute.

The big ones that have hit us in the St. PETE Clearwater area have actually have hit us this time of year

[Blown Away]

Trend with previous run
https://i.imgur.com/Rpc7wRP.gif

00z Euro crossed over wider part of Cuba (00z Euro Image above) and 06z slight W adjustment may go over skinny part and allow for more strength on the other side of Cuba?

[lsuhurricane]

12z ICON coming in a smidge further west compared to 6z. These small changes mean big impacts!

[TheHurricaneGod]

If you look at the past several runs of the GFS and euro at the same timeframe, the EC trough has been trending stronger each run/further south. The ridge in the Atlantic has been trending ever so slightly weaker/eastward with some minor noise in between. I have a hunch this will result in models trending back east again, probably near the last minute, if this trend continues.

[skyline385]

Looks like NHC also sees a lot of strengthening as predicted by some of the westward ensemble members, upgraded to major before landfall now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ConvergenceZone]

EURO must be seeing ton of shear or dry air or shear in the Carib to be forecasting such a WEAK storm.............

[SouthFLTropics]

12z ICON coming in a smidge further west compared to 6z. These small changes mean big impacts!

Where are you seeing the ICON at. Seems tidbits is running behind.

[skyline385]

EURO must be seeing ton of shear or dry air or shear in the Carib to be forecasting such a WEAK storm.............

Euro has had a weak bias for years now, it’s not seeing anything new compared to the other models it’s just slow to develop


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[skyline385]

12z ICON coming in a smidge further west compared to 6z. These small changes mean big impacts!

Where are you seeing the ICON at. Seems tidbits is running behind.

weather.us has it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lsuhurricane]

Where are you seeing the ICON at. Seems tidbits is running behind.

Weathermodels.com

[skyline385]

ICON 12Z




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caneseddy]

ICON 12Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/1622c68e2c34ef1e6cbfd42ad3a76b7b.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks like Naples landfall or just south of it as a major hurricane. SE Florida gets dirty side

[SFLcane]

[IcyTundra]

Euro has been very consistent with the south of Ft Meyers idea now for many runs. It makes way more sense with the Tampa/ Sarasota strike such a rare climo entry location.

With that said the complete miss of FL peninsula is getting less likely by the minute.

It all depends on the timing of the turn. As we saw with Charley small changes in timing can make a big difference in the track.