ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

The pressure of the exposed LLC has been going up each pass. Perhaps a new LLC is trying to form downshear, and this one is dying off.

[Teban54]

With TD9 forming at 13.9N 68.6W, it becomes the first TC on record to form during Sep 21-30 in the Caribbean between 65W and 70W, aka the Eastern Caribbean graveyard:

[TallyTracker]

With TD9 forming at 13.9N 68.6W, it becomes the first TC on record to form during Sep 21-30 in the Caribbean between 65W and 70W, aka the Eastern Caribbean graveyard:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/sep_21_30.png

Another thing to note on that map is the lack of storms recurving over eastern Cuba. That requires a very strong front and is rare this time of year. Most storms move further west and have a more gradual arc.

[Iceresistance]

There is going to be more after this?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573300307496509444




Also agree on being stronger than forecast, the NHC is usually very conservative.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573268809905221638

[Teban54]

There is going to be more after this?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573300307496509444?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Also agree on being stronger than forecast, the NHC is usually very conservative.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573268809905221638?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

0z Euro does suggest riding up the East Coast like Donna, but the rest of the 0z global models all show a stall somewhere in Florida, which brings torrential rainfall to the state but otherwise has low impact further north.

[tolakram]

This was August but don't forget Charlie.



Source (with all tracks): https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=3.8/12.73/-69.47&search=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

The later it is in the season the more likely a recurve.

[toad strangler]

This was August but don't forget Charlie.

https://i.imgur.com/M8Md2J6.png

Source (with all tracks): https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=3.8/12.73/-69.47&search=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

The later it is in the season the more likely a recurve.

And the FIRST HALF of August it was! Major anomaly. Pun intended.

[cane5]

There is going to be more after this?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573300307496509444?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Also agree on being stronger than forecast, the NHC is usually very conservative.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573268809905221638?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

0z Euro does suggest riding up the East Coast like Donna, but the rest of the 0z global models all show a stall somewhere in Florida, which brings torrential rainfall to the state but otherwise has low impact further north.

You say a stall pretty rare but I remember Francis stalled off the bahamas and then came in but I would hate for it to stall inland that would be catastrophic !!

[eastcoastFL]

Local forecast from NOAA here in Martin county says potential tropical storm conditions for Tuesday. The hourly graph forecasts wind 37mph gusting to 55

TuesdayTropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[eastcoastFL]

:(

There is going to be more after this?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573300307496509444?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Also agree on being stronger than forecast, the NHC is usually very conservative.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573268809905221638?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

0z Euro does suggest riding up the East Coast like Donna, but the rest of the 0z global models all show a stall somewhere in Florida, which brings torrential rainfall to the state but otherwise has low impact further north.

You say a stall pretty rare but I remember Francis stalled off the bahamas and then came in but I would hate for it to stall inland that would be catastrophic !!

I think that’s more common when storms come in from the east. Storms coming from the west usually pass fairly quickly. Like Wilma was awful but it was gone pretty quick.

[cjrciadt]

:(

There is going to be more after this?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573300307496509444?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Also agree on being stronger than forecast, the NHC is usually very conservative.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573268809905221638?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

0z Euro does suggest riding up the East Coast like Donna, but the rest of the 0z global models all show a stall somewhere in Florida, which brings torrential rainfall to the state but otherwise has low impact further north.

You say a stall pretty rare but I remember Francis stalled off the bahamas and then came in but I would hate for it to stall inland that would be catastrophic !!

I joined this site after dealing with both Charley and Frances!

[Dean4Storms]

I like the NHC track but with a caveat of the increase in average errors out that far and of course the cone covers that. Everyone in Florida still at play IMO.

[Blown Away]

Looks like little more latitude and COC seems to take that W turn past few frames.

[Poonwalker]

Charley was an outlier in terms of track for August.



Charley was more in line with a late September or month of October track. We absolutely could see this exact track which is forecast, the question will be where exactly will it launch from near Jamaica.

[beachnut]

And the FIRST HALF of August it was! Major anomaly. Pun intended.

"Friday the 13th, 2004" .. to be exact! I don't recall if it was a trough or an anomaly that pushed it. Back then for us it was watching local mets on TV and the "Tropical Update" on TWC, but I had a bad feeling about it. My co-workers all thought I was silly when I left early the day before to put the shutters up. Since then I take things even more seriously, and happy this forum exists. Thanks to all who contribute their knowledge here

[ElectricStorm]

Now forecast to be a major at landfall

[kevin]

[pgoss11]

Now forecast to be a major at landfall

I hope my family in Fort Myers are getting their preps done. I guess condition will be more favorable with the change to a Cat 3 at landfall.

[Poonwalker]

https://i.imgur.com/gAqApeh.png

ok this is real ..

[beachnut]

Oh here we go, the 11am has an "M" on top of us I know there's always changes this far out but really keeping my eye on this one for sure!