ATL: IAN - Models

[Fancy1001]

The 12z icon Has the storm parked right after it gets through Florida until the end of its runs. GFS did something similar where it took the remnants of the storm and brought it back into Florida and then into the gulf. What are these models catching on to.

[caneseddy]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vs4CJ4Y9/icon.png

Right over my neighborhood (Plantation)

[skyline385]

ICON 12Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/1622c68e2c34ef1e6cbfd42ad3a76b7b.jpg


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Looks like Naples landfall or just south of it as a major hurricane. SE Florida gets dirty side

Here’s zoomed in view





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[caneseddy]

ICON 12Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/1622c68e2c34ef1e6cbfd42ad3a76b7b.jpg


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Looks like Naples landfall or just south of it as a major hurricane. SE Florida gets dirty side

Here’s zoomed in view

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/bc46c29e6918b1f41c2d5f0cc31f7ec4.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/3f18a84301f44342c50b183d281d6750.jpg


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Wilma Part 2. ICON and Euro very consistent with a landfall further south than all other models.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS running

[kevin]

The 12z icon Has the storm parked right after it gets through Florida until the end of its runs. GFS did something similar where it took the remnants of the storm and brought it back into Florida and then into the gulf. What are these models catching on to.

Yes, it's really unusual I can't remember seeing such a path before. TD9 stays above/next to Florida for more than 60 hours this run and even strenghtens again back to the low 950s at +165. After 30 hours some parts along the east coast of Florida already show 24+ inches of rain in the ICON run. The amount of rain this would result in... it's almost like it's trying to create a Harvey for Florida. Let's hope the other models don't trend the same way.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z GFS running
https://i.imgur.com/nTjJSdy.gif

Looks a lot less…irregular…in its development this run

[tolakram]

[skyline385]

ICON also stalls it just offshore of WPB similar to last nights runs, i think a stall inland would be pretty devastating


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[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone,
Been busy at work playing catch up here. Not liking the Icon run at all, if this does become the the point of land fall what kind of storm surge are we looking at in the upper keys. I would think a fairly descent amount with the counter clock wise flow, any Pro's care to provide an estimates? Would be much appreciated.

[tolakram]

[p1nheadlarry]

06Z EPS zoomed in, there seems to be a group which goes through SFL and a group (from center relocation maybe) which is westwards.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/91f69f92d33818a0a1458b665c8e8b66.jpg


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There is has not been any center relocation that i am aware off its some eddys rotating around the broader llc. But either way the mean in black is still across South Florida. We wait and watch

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr6rPPY3/epshh.jpg

I'm curious what effect the trough will have on shearing the system if it does follow some of the westernmost ensemble members. But those westernmost ensemble members are the strongest of any on the run. NHC mentions intensity likely capping as it approaches shore in their latest discussion. Can any mets lurking explain the disparity between the discussion and those Euro members bombing out?

Long time lurker, first time poster.

The storm is going to be pulling in some drier air as this cold front moves across the region and also won't be in a configuration where the jet interacts favorably with it (read as: shear). In addition the eastern gulf tends to be cooler off the shelf. Probably your main limiting factors as landfall approaches.

- degreed met but not operational/research (basically just a SW engineer lol)

[gatorcane]

The GFS has the same location on 12Z at 78 hours as 06Z and 4 mb weaker.

[skyline385]

Decently strong westward 12Z GFS




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[tolakram]

I'll be posting the MSLP maps but keep in mind global intensity estimates just aren't that great.

[AutoPenalti]

Probably back to Tallahassee this run?

[tolakram]

5 run GFS trend

[TheHurricaneGod]

Slightly stronger EC trough at hr 84. Storm is a little further south. That's three runs in a row where it shifted south (at that particular time).

[gatorcane]

84 hours heading NNW. Watch out Tampa and west coast of Florida:

[tolakram]