ATL: IAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?
https://i.imgur.com/dom8FUP.png

Because of the ridge to the east of it (look at the 588 dm height)

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/fd1cff6c9b7094f1c13eadc0147b313e.jpg


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Anyone know when G-IV is suppose to fly?

[tomatkins]

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?
https://i.imgur.com/dom8FUP.png

Its slowly moving through a stalled out front. Its doing what the ICON has forecast, except instead of stalling out off the east coast of Florida is does so off the west coast in the Gulf. Imagine TD9 didnt exist. Would you be surprised if a low formed on the tail end of a front and drifted northward in the gulf?

[SouthFLTropics]

Just when you think things are looking clearer… bam… the 12z runs throw a monkey wrench into everything.

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone else watching the 12z cmc pull a gfs?

[Edwards Limestone]

Massive west shifts on the GFS and CMC...

[Iceresistance]

The GFS still landfalls this system near Tallahassee

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone else watching the 12z cmc pull a gfs?

They’re not alone… sounds like the UKMET is in line with a west stall also.

[p1nheadlarry]

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?
https://i.imgur.com/dom8FUP.png

If you look at the 200 hPa winds, it's southerly flow with an upper level ridge influencing steering. Plus with the jet streak is well to its north; lowered heights are due north (easier to see on 500 hPa heights). Wonder if the timing here with the jet streak plays a role here as well as it's near the right entrance region = divergence = pressure falls

[Frank P]

That 12z GFS run was a shocker, regardless if it hits the Big Ben area it’s going to create a significant surge no doubt. Then you have to worry if you’re on the west coast does it pull a Charlie scenario, perhaps going into Tampa? Tough days ahead for all you west coasters!

[AutoPenalti]

CMC with landfall in Destin

[Kat5]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

[pgoss11]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

I’ve learned to never bet against the NHC

[p1nheadlarry]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

We don't know yet. Really just a matter of the short term progression of TD9 and the timing of the synoptic pieces aiding steering

[Teban54]

It's mind boggling how we're still dealing with these wild shifts less than 5 days out. Why are models so bad this year?

[tomatkins]

Very strange run. The GFS has been so good recently that it makes me believe it's seeing something the other models aren't.

Guessing that TD 09 riding up the East Coast is off the table now?

ICON still has it at the end of the run. But really thats too far out to worry about. What seems clear is that it will form, it will move into the western Caribbean and strengthen, then at some point turn north (somewhere between the Yucatan and Jamaica). After that who knows - several models (ICON, GFS, UKMET) show it stalling, but that stuff is so knife's edge - a little change in the timing and/or strength of the troughs can just end up with the storm being picked up.

[Nimbus]

The west shift of the 12Z models looks statistically meaningful.
Could be they now think it will miss the trough and stall further west in the big bend area rather than off east coast?
If the Euro caves next run they will be adjusting track.

[gatorcane]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

I was thinking Big Bend would be a target from the beginning if it didn’t landfall in the NGOM. This track is more east than I thought. Just not buying NE through the peninsula, at least the Southern peninsula but that is still very much in the table.

[Iceresistance]

I do admit that I did not expect the CMC, UKMET, and the ICON to favor the GFS on the west shift, the east coast rider is now very unlikely.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

Saying this when this isn't even a named system yet is jumping the gun.

[AutoPenalti]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

I was thinking Big Bend would be a target from the beginning if it didn’t landfall in the NGOM. This track is far more east than I thought. Just not buying NE through the peninsula, at least the Southern peninsula but that is still very much in the table,

If the Euro shifts West as well, then we should begin to see NHC move west as well. Possibly less impacts to Metro SFL.