ATL: IAN - Models

[Javlin]

12Z UKMET a big shift back to the SW with it stalling at the 85W longitude 200 miles west of Naples:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2022 0 14.4N 69.4W 1009 24
0000UTC 24.09.2022 12 15.1N 71.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 24.09.2022 24 15.0N 74.1W 1007 29
0000UTC 25.09.2022 36 15.0N 76.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 25.09.2022 48 15.8N 78.5W 1004 31
0000UTC 26.09.2022 60 17.3N 80.4W 1002 33
1200UTC 26.09.2022 72 19.1N 82.1W 1000 34
0000UTC 27.09.2022 84 21.2N 82.8W 998 40
1200UTC 27.09.2022 96 23.4N 84.1W 997 38
0000UTC 28.09.2022 108 24.5N 85.0W 995 42
1200UTC 28.09.2022 120 25.2N 85.1W 996 44
0000UTC 29.09.2022 132 25.9N 84.9W 996 48
1200UTC 29.09.2022 144 26.1N 84.8W 996 50

HMON,HWRF and now UKMET all in the same area @126hrs in a degree.

[cheezyWXguy]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

Way too early to be making decisive statements about landfall location, and I think these recent runs have the storm fighting the upper flow too much. My personal takeaway from this is that the central and northern portions of the peninsula are at least as much in play as the southern portion. As others have noted, small deviations east or west, dependent on the strength of that ridge to the east, storm intensity, and trough characteristics, are introducing high uncertainty in ultimate landfall location.

[Andrewcane86]

@wxman57 thoughts on the recent runs?


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[toad strangler]

Now watch the euro come west. NHC track is too far East. This is a Big Bend system.

Way too early to be making decisive statements about landfall location, and I think these recent runs have the storm fighting the upper flow too much. My personal takeaway from this is that the central and northern portions of the peninsula are at least as much in play as the southern portion. As others have noted, small deviations east or west, dependent on the strength of that ridge to the east, storm intensity, and trough characteristics, are introducing high uncertainty in ultimate landfall location.

It's amazing how quick the vibe goes from west to east back to west again. Many of us, although we won't admit it, react to rashly to individual model runs. I'm guilty at times.

[Michele B]

The GFS is real stubborn... still insisting on that stall and well west of the other models.

I've been saying for days that this stall just isn't on the table. I don't buy it for a second. FUBAR

I agree. The cold front that is sweeping down from the arctic is just too strong. It'll sweep it up toward the NE, NOT cause it to stall.

[Nimbus]

Euro is very fast, it races the storm north over Cuba and makes landfall in southeast Florida.
Hurry, hurry or you will miss the trough!

[N2FSU]

6z vs 12z GFS. Trend or a one-off? It's why I said I don't trust strong progged troughs in North Florida this time of year. I hope I'm wrong.


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[RevanTheJedi96]

The GFS is real stubborn... still insisting on that stall and well west of the other models.

I've been saying for days that this stall just isn't on the table. I don't buy it for a second. FUBAR

I agree. The cold front that is sweeping down from the arctic is just too strong. It'll sweep it up toward the NE, NOT cause it to stall.

Unless the models see the front reacting differently than anticipated?

[gatorcane]

Looking at the GFS ans CMC runs, it is like Tampa has a shield or something. Watch this CMC run closely, goes right around Tampa

[ncapps]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/b796ed382800c4ad0628fd95b37255f5.jpg
6z vs 12z Euro. Trend or a one-off? It's why I said I don't trust strong progged troughs in North Florida this time of year. I hope I'm wrong.


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This is the 12z Euro or GFS?

[Michele B]

That 12z GFS run was a shocker, regardless if it hits the Big Ben area it’s going to create a significant surge no doubt. Then you have to worry if you’re on the west coast does it pull a Charlie scenario, perhaps going into Tampa? Tough days ahead for all you west coasters!

The reason Charley pulled that sharp right turn was the warm water of the Peace River enticing it in.

Wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. It's more incentive than floating past it on the way to Tampa. Personally, I'm hoping it heads for points south rather than go through a "charley" again! Wilma run is ok with me.

[AutoPenalti]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/b796ed382800c4ad0628fd95b37255f5.jpg
6z vs 12z Euro. Trend or a one-off? It's why I said I don't trust strong progged troughs in North Florida this time of year. I hope I'm wrong.


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That’s not the Euro

[Nimbus]

Is the 12Z Euro out?
00Z was still east coast Florida track.

[N2FSU]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/b796ed382800c4ad0628fd95b37255f5.jpg
6z vs 12z Euro. Trend or a one-off? It's why I said I don't trust strong progged troughs in North Florida this time of year. I hope I'm wrong.


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That’s not the Euro

Sorry, meant to say GFS.


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[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573350971174191104

[p1nheadlarry]

Is the 12Z Euro out?
00Z was still east coast Florida track.

12z Euro comes in at roughly 1 CDT

[Beef Stew]

While there are instances (Laura comes to mind) where the NHC nails the 5-day landfall location forecast, more often than not the worst of the storm ends up elsewhere. We still have the better part of 5 days for this to change, and while the changes might be gradual, I believe there will ultimately be adjustments one way or the other. I know it’s east to fall into the mindset that a storm is coming to you, especially when you see that big “M” parked over your house on the official forecast- I’ve done the same multiple times. We just have to finalize our plans now, watch, and wait.

[boca]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS is significantly west of the last GEFS run and has the largest number of members well to the west in the central GOM since yesterday's 12Z run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking at the GFS ans CMC runs, it is like Tampa has a shield or something. Watch this CMC run closely, goes right around Tampa

https://i.postimg.cc/tJ5CzjXp/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh84-168.gif

Considering the GFS literally changes every run and the Canadian is as good as the NAM. Maybe go with the wait and see approach.