ATL: IAN - Models

[jlauderdal]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

[Ivanhater]

TVCN will most definitely swing west in a couple of hours

[Iceresistance]

Even Big Joe B has a hard time believing the 12z GFS.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573349527859470337

[N2FSU]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/b796ed382800c4ad0628fd95b37255f5.jpg
6z vs 12z Euro. Trend or a one-off? It's why I said I don't trust strong progged troughs in North Florida this time of year. I hope I'm wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is the 12z Euro or GFS?

My apologies, I corrected it. I have no idea why I typed Euro. It's the GFS.

[HurricaneBelle]

Even Big Joe B has a hard time believing the 12z GFS.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1573349527859470337?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The GFS does weaken it from a major to a cat 1 as it stalls and crawls off the west coast of FL. Short of a direct hit by a major just north of the Tampa Bay area, this run is a near-worst-case scenario as it would be days of surge, winds and rain for the area.

[jfk08c]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

To be fair, the CMC run showed something similar. But I think there will need to be a trend with the next few runs for the NHC to consider shifting the official track forecast. One set of runs isn't enough data to warrant it

[boca]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

The GFS and CMC trended west let’s see what the Euro does but I’m betting it will have the storm in the E Gom as well. Trough obviously isn’t as deep.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Ukmet with a big shift West toward Cmc and Gfs


Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS Ensembles basically put the entire northern Gulf coast and Florida back in play. Unreal.

[Stormi]

Not going to lie, as someone who lives just literally steps from the St. John's River, I don't like these runs. Irma was bad enough - bad flooding & no power for 2 weeks...this could be much worse. Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition.

[pgoss11]

There are so many factors to be considered before NHC changes it’s track. There is still the issue of center reformations too. We just have to wait it out until the system is more organized so nothing is written in stone yet.

[AdamFirst]

If the trend is your friend, then the GFS is not making any friends

[sma10]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

GFS was looking even better yesterday when it was going into Louisiana. Until of course it swung all the way to the FL peninsula. But now it's swinging back, so all is good lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

The GFS and CMC trended west let’s see what the Euro does but I’m betting it will have the storm in the E Gom as well. Trough obviously isn’t as deep.

So… yesterday we were all thinking that this was going miss SFL to the EAST, and after 1 west shift 4-5 days out, we’re suddenly in the clear? Too early to assume these things. If anything, this just shows that the entire state is still in play.

[cycloneye]

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

The GFS and CMC trended west let’s see what the Euro does but I’m betting it will have the storm in the E Gom as well. Trough obviously isn’t as deep.

So… yesterday we were all thinking that this was going miss SFL to the EAST, and after 1 west shift 4-5 days out, we’re suddenly in the clear? Too early to assume these things. If anything, this just shows that the entire state is still in play.

Key message for Floridians, begin preparations and if nothing occurs in your area, then celebrate. I am talking all the Penninsula and Big Bend.

[jlauderdal]

It’s looking better for SE Florida I’m with gatorcane a panhandle hit a feel will happen and the NHC will probably adjust the cone northward

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

To be fair, the CMC run showed something similar. But I think there will need to be a trend with the next few runs for the NHC to consider shifting the official track forecast. One set of runs isn't enough data to warrant it

Fair enough if the CMC had shown consistency, its been less consistent than the gfs. The Canadian for hurricane forecasting is to be used for entertainment purposes only, we have far more reliable modeling to consume than the CMC. Let's see what the euro does with it and then NHC at 5. How much intensification in the NW Caribbean is going to be a key for track and ultimate landfall intensity, western Cuba if its in play won't knock it down much, if at all.

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF so far

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensembles with a HUGE shift west:

[blp]

I think it all depends what happens with center in next few hours. The GFS is banking on a center reformation which has yet to materialize. We really won't know for sure until the dominant center is established with convection. I suspect the Euro will stick with the previous center and not shift too much.

[TallyTracker]

If the trend is your friend, then the GFS is not making any friends

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1022693903268323408/1022917991458934864/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh138_trend.gif

That’s a windshield wiper if I’ve ever seen one! It feels like the GFS is trying all the solutions out so that at least one run turns out right! lol