ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Craters]

Long loop. you can see several of the reformations that have occured. This is normal for a sheared TS. expect west shift as many have noted already.

https://i.ibb.co/dMLwZQJ/ezgif-com-gif-maker-52.gif

The exposed LLC is good-sized, particularly compared to the current area of convection. How much of a factor will the exposed LLC be in delaying the formation of a new one? I mean, if a new LLC attempts to develop under the convection, it should feel the northerly (low-level) shear from the exposed one, right? Would that matter much, or would there be other, more potent factors at work?

[Aric Dunn]

Long loop. you can see several of the reformations that have occured. This is normal for a sheared TS. expect west shift as many have noted already.

https://i.ibb.co/dMLwZQJ/ezgif-com-gif-maker-52.gif

The exposed LLC is good-sized, particularly compared to the current area of convection. How much of a factor will the exposed LLC be in delaying the formation of a new one? I mean, if a new LLC attempts to develop under the convection, it should feel the northerly (low-level) shear from the exposed one, right? Would that matter much, or would there be other, more potent factors at work?

They would definitely interact with each other. though the new one were that to happen, would likely win out since it would be under lower shear and convection. So definitely some wobbles. ultimately it just need to be taken into account for track shifts.

[eastcoastFL]

Is it possible that the convection to the SW becomes more dominant ?

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF pointing to a pretty substantial reformation in the convection he SW over the 12 to 24 hours. So far it west and south of the last run.

So definitely need to watch out for that to occur today. what the final result in track such a thing will cause is unknown exactly. but brushing the western tip of cuba vs going over some terrain could be a big difference.

Do you think the center could reform under this convection to the SW?

[StAuggy]

12z HWRF pointing to a pretty substantial reformation in the convection he SW over the 12 to 24 hours. So far it west and south of the last run.

So definitely need to watch out for that to occur today. what the final result in track such a thing will cause is unknown exactly. but brushing the western tip of cuba vs going over some terrain could be a big difference.

Might it be somewhat safe to assume that for every bit W it ends up before having an E component, then that would result in the landfall moving up the FL w coast to an extent?

I can’t see it getting further west and then making up for it with a bigger hook.

[TallyTracker]

Please, those in southcentral Florida, prepare from now, although you had to do so since June 1.

https://i.imgur.com/NNtKm9p.jpg

Panic has begun.

Just made a run for gas....several pumps closed and lines 3 & 4 deep at all the other pumps.

Glad I stay prepped. Just needed to top off my gas tank. Now just watch and wait. We'll have to bug out to somewhere, but at least the grocery store WON'T be one place you'll find me!

Grabbed a some non-perishables to restock so I’m all set if the storm heads this way. No desire to fight the crowds.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF pointing to a pretty substantial reformation in the convection he SW over the 12 to 24 hours. So far it west and south of the last run.

So definitely need to watch out for that to occur today. what the final result in track such a thing will cause is unknown exactly. but brushing the western tip of cuba vs going over some terrain could be a big difference.

Do you think the center could reform under this convection to the SW?

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/23435117.gif?0.4846153414268479

There appears to be a weak MLC on satellite there now. But the convection would really need to be robust. the LLC now has begun to rotate SW back into the convection which has started another burst of convection. just have to watch and see how it plays out and where the bulk of the convection keeps buliding.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's an afternoon video on our system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs4pidQV4WE

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF pointing to a pretty substantial reformation in the convection he SW over the 12 to 24 hours. So far it west and south of the last run.

So definitely need to watch out for that to occur today. what the final result in track such a thing will cause is unknown exactly. but brushing the western tip of cuba vs going over some terrain could be a big difference.

Do you think the center could reform under this convection to the SW?

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/23435117.gif?0.4846153414268479

There appears to be a weak MLC on satellite there now. But the convection would really need to be robust. the LLC now has begun to rotate SW back into the convection which has started another burst of convection. just have to watch and see how it plays out and where the bulk of the convection keeps buliding.

That makes sense, thank you. It’s something to watch as it pulls away from the heavier shear to its east.

[tolakram]

saved loop. You can see the shear axis, NE to SW. Just about out of the shear zone from Fiona in my opinion.

[Stellar]

Given the slowing/stalling/meandering shown by several of the models as the storm approaches the coast, the enemy will not be the core winds, but the relentless tidal surge and fresh water flooding that occurs during a 24-48 hour period. If you're on, or near, the water in any of these communities in Florida, you know what a multi-cycle tidal surge and 12-15" of rainfall will do to your local area.

[Michele B]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

You might want to rethink your plans.

If they order evacuations from the Keys, the first to be asked to leave will be tourists, such as yourself. Usually, the locals give the authorities a "no thanks" nod and continue on, but as a tourist, you will be made to leave. And then where would you go? You could end up in another hotel further up the road somewhere (Miami? Palm Beach?) paying for yet another hotel room and then still locked inside watching big winds blowing all around you.

[Frank P]

12z HWRF pointing to a pretty substantial reformation in the convection he SW over the 12 to 24 hours. So far it west and south of the last run.

So definitely need to watch out for that to occur today. what the final result in track such a thing will cause is unknown exactly. but brushing the western tip of cuba vs going over some terrain could be a big difference.

Do you think the center could reform under this convection to the SW?

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/23435117.gif?0.4846153414268479

There appears to be a weak MLC on satellite there now. But the convection would really need to be robust. the LLC now has begun to rotate SW back into the convection which has started another burst of convection. just have to watch and see how it plays out and where the bulk of the convection keeps buliding.

Yeah I just looked at the latest sat loops and that is exactly what is happening, the exposed LLC is diving back to the SW where there is a blob of strong convection developing. That LLC is quite vigorous and I don’t think the mid level center can over take it.

[tolakram]

200 frame visible. Speed up to get an idea of movement.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[wxman57]

Careful believing HWRF, which uses GFS. GFS is about the worst model with this storm (second to Canadian). Ensembles still say SW FL peninsula.

[Hurricane Mike]

Careful believing HWRF, which uses GFS. GFS is about the worst model with this storm (second to Canadian). Ensembles still say SW FL peninsula.

Yeah I am not convinced to push the track west or slow it just yet.

[zal0phus]

What's the potential ceiling for intensity here? Seems like a lot of unclear or conflicting information

[Iceresistance]

What's the potential ceiling for intensity here? Seems like a lot of unclear or conflicting information

At least Category 4, maybe higher if the conditions become more favorable more quickly

[Craters]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Just my opinion, but somewhere in an NHC cone that has an "H" or an "M" in one of the dots is one of the last places that you'd want to take your family. Unless you're a chaser, a researcher, a reporter, a rescuer, or somebody who just loves misery, it isn't a good idea at all. And don't forget, along with what Michele said, if it turns out to be a serious storm, you could be stuck somewhere* that isn't in the Keys, in in miserable dampness and humidity, until the water recedes, the roads can get cleared, the airports are ramping back up, etc. It would more than likely end up being The Trip of a Lifetime That Your Family Desperately Wants to Forget.

* Very possibly without power, food, or water until the Red Cross can show up with their white tents.

[wxman57]

Center is well north of the NHC forecast, already at 15N. I don't see this as a Cat 4. Maybe low-end 3. We'll see.