ATL: IAN - Models

[Fancy1001]

12z HWRF has been a little stronger and a little north of 06z, I wonder how this will affect the track.

[BobHarlem]

GEFS a bit more spread, some, west, majority still into Florida.

[psyclone]

The models may be lurching but the i bet the NHC won't. Thank goodness we now have their expertise. Nevertheless, as i mentioned in the other thread there's only 1 degree of longitude between Lee and Levy county...so a slight westward adjustment could yield a drastically different landfall point

[caneseddy]

Looking better because of one gfs run, the same gfs that hasnt shown any consiatency?

The GFS and CMC trended west let’s see what the Euro does but I’m betting it will have the storm in the E Gom as well. Trough obviously isn’t as deep.

So… yesterday we were all thinking that this was going miss SFL to the EAST, and after 1 west shift 4-5 days out, we’re suddenly in the clear? Too early to assume these things. If anything, this just shows that the entire state is still in play.

To add to that, the Euro and ICON, unlike the GFS have been very consistent in their projected landfall area, which has been the southern peninsula and they have rarely deviated from that, maybe tiny shifts

The GFS meanwhile has swung from north of Tampa to Lake Charles. As was stated before, if you are looking for a trend with the GFS you are not getting it at the moment. Also the UKMET has usually tended to be more of a left biased model so not weird to see it shift west as well.

[p1nheadlarry]

If the trend is your friend, then the GFS is not making any friends

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1022693903268323408/1022917991458934864/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh138_trend.gif

That’s a windshield wiper if I’ve ever seen one! It feels like the GFS is trying all the solutions out so that at least one run turns out right! lol

"I'm playing both sides so I always come out on top" - Mac from IASIP

[tolakram]

NE of last run

[tolakram]

[kevin]

Just to make this model cycle even more confusing, both HWRF and HMON shifted slightly to the east for the first 90 hrs. That being said they were two of the most westernmost outliers so even with the east shift they're still pretty far west.

[jlauderdal]

Just to make this model cycle even more confusing, both HWRF and HMON shifted slightly to the east for the first 90 hrs. That being said they were two of the most westernmost outliers so even with the east shift they're still pretty far west.

Lets be careful with the HWRF, not so good on track and likes to over-intensify systems. However, the HWRF does a decent job of sniffing out really intense systems so if it goes nuts we can't completely discount it in this setup over the next few days.

[chris_fit]

12z EURO Running - let's see how this turns out...

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

ECMF coming in decent ways S and W vs 00z Run @ 54 hours

[AutoPenalti]

Will see if this caves to the GFS.

[Iceresistance]

Euro is further west compared to 6z at +72 hours.

[skyline385]

Latest Euro is trending west towards the GFS


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[TheHurricaneGod]

Well...

[Kat5]

Looks further west on the 12z euro so far.

[AutoPenalti]

Hour 96 at Cuba Landfall.

[chris_fit]

Hour 96 at Cuba Landfall.

Looks like E side of Isle of Youth - and stronger than 00z run