ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1361 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:17 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Hour 96 at Cuba Landfall.


Little W of 00z, but now goes over skinny part of Cuba and we will see if it's stronger on the other side??
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1362 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:17 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1363 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:17 pm

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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1364 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:18 pm

Due N starting at 90 hours, so likely @Naples landfall.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1365 Postby Kat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:18 pm




That’s one heck of a trough.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1366 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:19 pm

Next frame should be telling.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1367 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:21 pm

trend
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1368 Postby skyline385 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:21 pm

That’s a strong ridge to the east

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1369 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:21 pm

West.

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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1370 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:21 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1371 Postby lsuhurricane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:23 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1372 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:24 pm

So the upper air data sampling in CONUS is gonna be critical to the evolution of speed and direction of the final landfall. Once there is a named system, and the models can ingest that data to determine the developing front strength and alignment, we'll know which model will win.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1373 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:24 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:West.

https://i.imgur.com/BUQQ1zT.gif


Looks like Naples landfall or just north. Almost identical to ICON and also much stronger than the 6z
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1374 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:24 pm

Euro adjusting to NHC track. Per usual. :)

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1375 Postby skyline385 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:24 pm

This would probably cause a decent surge in the Ft Meyers area

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1376 Postby Poonwalker » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm

That's looking like a bad run for Tampa bay. Not liking the overall size of the storm either.
Last edited by Poonwalker on Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1377 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1378 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:27 pm

Waoh! Turns NE over the lake this would be crazy
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1379 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:27 pm




Pretty much identical to NHC Track
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1380 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:28 pm

Literally a 60 mile difference.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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