ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Good grief. Now TD9 will become an I storm and wreck Florida.

It seems like that TD 9 was intentionally waiting until TD 10 became Hermine so it can unleash the I curse.

[TallyTracker]

Maybe Ten can just be called TS Ten until Nine finally becomes Hermine, then give Ten the name of Ian.

I’d vote this comment of the day!

[Blown Away]

18z Best Track at 14.6N.

AL, 09, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 707W, 30, 1006, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

[AutoPenalti]

DMIN should help fire this thing up.

[Jr0d]

Well at least I called it a few days ago becoming Ian.

Nothing like waking up to a major storm knocking at your door even though it was expected in Key West.

Was hoping to do some shopping early this morning(3am) at our 24 hour Winn-Dixie after work expecting this forecast and trying to beat the panicked crowd....and they were closed. New policy that they are closed Thursday nights. Got to work all tonight.

Looks like a sleepless weekend...and now that it will be an "I" storm, the outlook is bleak.

[Category5Kaiju]

It would probably have to take maybe several consecutive years to consider the I curse broken. I'll wait for the advisory just to be sure though.

I actually don't think the "I" curse is real... generally speaking, it seems most season land on the 9th named storm of the year in mid-September, which is right around peak. Not surprising many become notable. 2020 being an exception, with its monster "I" storm being in the Greek alphabet.

But why is it always I in particular? Shouldn't there be more H or J storms that are like that then, considering those letters typically correspond to names during peak season?

[Aric Dunn]

Tops of the new towers are starting to fan out to the east and north some., shear is decreasing.

Also 12z EPS comes in with the strongest members ( except a few) turning north and not SW florida.

[jlauderdal]

DMIN should help fire this thing up.

Tomorrow the setup starts to get much better, these slow systems that develop west of 60 are dangerous, nhc might be a little light on intensity

[MGC]

Some vigorous convection on the west quad of the naked swirl. Might help tighten that CC up a bit. Was earlier thinking the center would reform closer to the convection this morning but maybe not. I expect this TD to really pop once the shear relaxes......MGC

[wxman57]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

probably a 3. 943 is typically high pt. of cat 4

Uh, it's only about 1004 mb now. Definitely not a Cat 3 or 4 at present. Don't believe everything you read in the models.

[Weatherboy1]

Some vigorous convection on the west quad of the naked swirl. Might help tighten that CC up a bit. Was earlier thinking the center would reform closer to the convection this morning but maybe not. I expect this TD to really pop once the shear relaxes......MGC

To my eye, it looks like the “old”/long-tracked center has maintained its dominant position … and now it’s almost under the new convection you referenced. IF this trend persists and the center doesn’t relocate to the SW the way some models have been hinting at, I suspect that will have implications down the road (a further East track like the euro is showing vs further west like GFS)

[AutoPenalti]

My eyes are strained but is that another vort inside that convection?

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1573391566223409160





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[skyline385]

My eyes are strained but is that another vort inside that convection?

You got good eyes

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1573408054158458881





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Recurve]

I'm watching from St. Petersburg. Definitely a concern for Tampa Bay region. Glad that things were normal at Lowe's and grocery stores today. People in the lowest zones have to think about running from a Cat 3, even though we're well north of the NHC track center. I can't personally rule out anywhere from Crystal River to Everglades City right now. If there's three or four NHC forecasts shifting it away, then I start to relax.

Really interested in the trough position, development, timing. Wondering how similar this is to Charley 2004 setup.

With a northwest-ish approach, whatever part of Florida ends up right of the center will get slammed with surge and onshore wind. I worry for the Lower Keys and everybody at sea level up to the Panhandle. Being on the right side is the nightmare scenario for downtown Tampa and communities all around Tampa Bay.

[eastcoastFL]

Doesn’t look like it’s going to be exposed much longer. Convection is starting to pop

[sweetpea]

I'm watching from St. Petersburg. Definitely a concern for Tampa Bay region. Glad that things were normal at Lowe's and grocery stores today. People in the lowest zones have to think about running from a Cat 3, even though we're well north of the NHC track center. I can't personally rule out anywhere from Crystal River to Everglades City right now. If there's three or four NHC forecasts shifting it away, then I start to relax.

Really interested in the trough position, development, timing. Wondering how similar this is to Charley 2004 setup.

With a northwest-ish approach, whatever part of Florida ends up right of the center will get slammed with surge and onshore wind. I worry for the Lower Keys and everybody at sea level up to the Panhandle. Being on the right side is the nightmare scenario for downtown Tampa and communities all around Tampa Bay.

I know someone that lives on a sail boat in Tampa Bay, they said they are staying put right now. I told them they need to tighten the boat down and leave. She said they have been through a number of storms and for right now they are staying. Saying prayers for everyone in the path of this storm.

[eastcoastFL]

So it’s official, this won’t be Hermine…

[FireRat]

My eyes are strained but is that another vort inside that convection?

You got good eyes

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1573408054158458881?s=46&t=C8uigb4BbdevymdzFgrW9g

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Pole Flip incoming!

Can't believe this thing is about to become IAN... the I's of September, here we go again!

[skyline385]

My eyes are strained but is that another vort inside that convection?

You got good eyes

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1573408054158458881?s=46&t=C8uigb4BbdevymdzFgrW9g

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pole Flip incoming!

Can't believe this thing is about to become IAN... the I's of September, here we go again!

It’s the cursed “I” name again.


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