ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

My eyes are strained but is that another vort inside that convection?

You got good eyes

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1573408054158458881?s=46&t=C8uigb4BbdevymdzFgrW9g


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah it looks anti-cyclonic...

[Sanibel]

People in SFL dont even know what is heading this way and most to even prepare anymore.

My nephew who works at Walmart on Bird Road in Miami says the water is starting to fly out the door. Just wait until the 5pm SFL News cycle to start. Get your gas tonight

Costco in North Palm Beach was a madhouse at lunch; both inside the store and the lines for gas.

The gas station on Sanibel was like a normal day and I filled-up no problem...

[MJGarrison]

My eyes are strained but is that another vort inside that convection?

You got good eyes

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1573408054158458881?s=46&t=C8uigb4BbdevymdzFgrW9g


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah it looks anti-cyclonic...

I’m no expert, but if you look at the meso sector, 1 minute images, it just looks like the shear has lessened and the cloud tops are expanding in all directions. I admit the normal 15 minute images do appear anti-cyclonic.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[arlwx]

Still Nine for now.

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...

[aspen]

Tomorrow will be a key day for Ian. How much it organizes and intensifies by the end of the day tomorrow will determine how strong it could be when it threatens Cuba and Florida. If it still remains disorganized, then its ceiling could be a Cat 3 at Cuba and a Cat 1-2 at Florida. If it’s already developing an inner core in 24-30 hours…might as well retire the name before landfall. I hope the predicted Gulf shear kicks in enough before Ian’s Florida landfall, assuming it sticks to this track (Cuba landfall between Havana and the western tip) and doesn’t shift east to the point where there will be less time for it to weaken.

[gatorcane]

Track shifts a bit west:

[Fancy1001]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

probably a 3. 943 is typically high pt. of cat 4

Uh, it's only about 1004 mb now. Definitely not a Cat 3 or 4 at present. Don't believe everything you read in the models.

They are obviously talking about at the end of the model, not what the storm is right now.

[sweetpea]

State of emergency for quite a few Florida counties. Stay safe!

https://www.wtxl.com/news/florida-news/ ... rkrGZ8chOA

[dpep4]

It's not a shoe-in, but they might shift the forecast for Nine west?

[NDG]

Track shifts a bit west:

https://i.postimg.cc/3xdwtfJg/205548-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

Big time slow down between day 4 & 5.

Anything beyond day 3 the track still subject change.

[NDG]

TD 9 is already starting to find better UL winds, I really do think that tonight we will see it become Ian.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC cone shifts west, likely sliding with the GFS for now.

Once again, the global models have shifted westward this
cycle during this period, and there remains increased track
uncertainty late in the forecast period once the cyclone emerges
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast
has been adjusted westward from 48-120 h, and it lies near or
slightly east of the latest track consensus aids.

[Hurrilurker]

Wow, that spin looks great at the lower levels, just need to stack it up.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd bet that the recon finds it as a minimum tropical storm when all is said and done. 1004mb pressure.

[eastcoastFL]

Track shifts a bit west:

https://i.postimg.cc/3xdwtfJg/205548-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

I’m interested to see how the future track looks as it crosses the state.

[skyline385]

Can’t remember the last time a NHC discussion was so bullish on a NATL system

Recent satellite trends suggest the cyclone may already be nearing a lower shear environment, and once that occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear very conducive for strengthening through early next week. As the cyclone moves within a moist and unstable environment over sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, it is forecast to rapidly intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue strengthening while it approaches western Cuba on Monday night. The very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should allow for more strengthening once it crosses Cuba, and the NHC forecast once again shows the system approaching the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by the middle of next week.

[eastcoastFL]

Covering up nicely

[eastcoastFL]

Can’t remember the last time a NHC discussion was so bullish on a NATL system

“Recent satellite trends suggest the cyclone may already be nearing a lower shear environment, and once that occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear very conducive for strengthening through early next week. As the cyclone moves within a moist and unstable environment over sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, it is forecast to rapidly intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue strengthening while it approaches western Cuba on Monday night. The very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should allow for more strengthening once it crosses Cuba, and the NHC forecast once again shows the
system approaching the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by the middle of next week.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s one of those rare-ish set ups with a developing storm entering an area of low shear and following a path through some of the warmest waters at the time when those waters are warmer than they’ll be all year.

[stormhunter7]

Increadible imagery coming in on the Floater off GOES-16. Clearly still has shear coming in from the NE, as expected. But look at those tops and ripples coming out. Venting is underway, but it will likley be some time before that surface low tucks up and under the deep convection. When it gets going, I still see this exploding over near the Cayman Islands.

[Iceresistance]

Still Nine for now.

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...

Now we have intermediate advisories for Nine (9).