AutoPenalti wrote:GFS further west from florida peninsula
Almost looks like it could miss the Peninsula
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AutoPenalti wrote:GFS further west from florida peninsula
pgoss11 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:GFS further west from florida peninsula
Almost looks like it could miss the Peninsula
kevin wrote:This is the strongest GFS run since it started showing a track over Cuba. Here's the last 4 runs.
00z = 949 mb (954 mb pre-Cuba)
06z = 940 mb (947 mb pre-Cuba)
12z = 943 mb (952 mb pre-Cuba)
18z = 935 mb (944 mb pre-Cuba)
aspen wrote:kevin wrote:This is the strongest GFS run since it started showing a track over Cuba. Here's the last 4 runs.
00z = 949 mb (954 mb pre-Cuba)
06z = 940 mb (947 mb pre-Cuba)
12z = 943 mb (952 mb pre-Cuba)
18z = 935 mb (944 mb pre-Cuba)
I’m not sure what I think about the chances of Fiona peaking in the Gulf. Wxman keeps talking about hostile shear and dry air after this passes Cuba, and it would be great for Florida if this weakens, but the modeled UL environment on the GFS is relatively similar to Fiona during its RI and Cat 4 peak. I kinda feel like it could go either way at this point, but I’m leaning towards Ian peaking in the WCar.
AtlanticWind wrote:Gfs may be right, but hard to trust with the big swings it has had with storm for example the sept 22 ooz
Had this in the middle of gulf
ConvergenceZone wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Gfs may be right, but hard to trust with the big swings it has had with storm for example the sept 22 ooz
Had this in the middle of gulf
I'm going to have to go with WXMAN on this one who says the GFS is on crack thinking that it could get this far west/north
pgoss11 wrote:Going to be interesting to see who wins the GFS vs Euro battle. My money is on the Euro. It’s been the most consistent so far.
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