ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1461 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:14 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS further west from florida peninsula

Almost looks like it could miss the Peninsula
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1462 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:16 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:GFS further west from florida peninsula

Almost looks like it could miss the Peninsula


It does this run with another west shift:

Image
4 likes   

shah83
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:55 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1463 Postby shah83 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:16 pm

I'm ignoring the GFS propensity for panhandle landfalls or Cyclone Nilofar style stall/spin-downs. I'm reasonably sure that the same trough that pulls the Euro model will be found by the GFS model Ian. Obviously the danger is going to be surge and rain across the midsection of the peninsula.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1464 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:16 pm

kevin wrote:This is the strongest GFS run since it started showing a track over Cuba. Here's the last 4 runs.

00z = 949 mb (954 mb pre-Cuba)
06z = 940 mb (947 mb pre-Cuba)
12z = 943 mb (952 mb pre-Cuba)
18z = 935 mb (944 mb pre-Cuba)

I’m not sure what I think about the chances of Fiona peaking in the Gulf. Wxman keeps talking about hostile shear and dry air after this passes Cuba, and it would be great for Florida if this weakens, but the modeled UL environment on the GFS is relatively similar to Fiona during its RI and Cat 4 peak. I kinda feel like it could go either way at this point, but I’m leaning towards Ian peaking in the WCar.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1465 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:17 pm

Way way west now. Miami in the clear on the GFS for now, obviously will change. Tallahassee and Destin not so much, yikes. Surge will be a huge issue as well.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1466 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:17 pm

What is the major difference between the ECMWF and the GFS that has the Atlantic vs Panhandle scenarios?
3 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1467 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:18 pm

Looks close to where Michael hit, maybe a hair east? That right quad Gonna big a big storm surge for sure
1 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1468 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:18 pm

Another west shift on Gfs..

Comes into mid Florida panhandle around Apalachicola
4 likes   
Michael

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1889
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1469 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:19 pm

Gfs may be right, but hard to trust with the big swings it has had with storm for example the sept 22 ooz
Had this in the middle of gulf
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1470 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:21 pm

aspen wrote:
kevin wrote:This is the strongest GFS run since it started showing a track over Cuba. Here's the last 4 runs.

00z = 949 mb (954 mb pre-Cuba)
06z = 940 mb (947 mb pre-Cuba)
12z = 943 mb (952 mb pre-Cuba)
18z = 935 mb (944 mb pre-Cuba)

I’m not sure what I think about the chances of Fiona peaking in the Gulf. Wxman keeps talking about hostile shear and dry air after this passes Cuba, and it would be great for Florida if this weakens, but the modeled UL environment on the GFS is relatively similar to Fiona during its RI and Cat 4 peak. I kinda feel like it could go either way at this point, but I’m leaning towards Ian peaking in the WCar.

Probably not likely, since Fiona is approaching Canada :lol:
4 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1471 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:22 pm

We definitely have 2 planets here with GFS and EURO. Something has got to give soon. One will fail miserably here.
2 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1472 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:22 pm

Notice how the 1016 line migrates further south through Georgia each of the last 3 GFS runs.
Coincides with a stronger system and higher pressure gradient.
See when that trend stops, 935 mb in the gulf seems kind of crazy but if its running up into the ridge?
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1473 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:22 pm

18z GFS... Takes 2 days from Ft. Myers latitude to Apalachicola?? Guess it's possible and may set GOM surge records. Let's hope that doesn't happen...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1474 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:23 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Gfs may be right, but hard to trust with the big swings it has had with storm for example the sept 22 ooz
Had this in the middle of gulf


I'm going to have to go with WXMAN on this one who says the GFS is on crack thinking that it could get this far west/north
2 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1475 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:23 pm

Going to be interesting to see who wins the GFS vs Euro battle. My money is on the Euro. It’s been the most consistent so far.
4 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1476 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:25 pm

About a 65 mile west shift on the GFS for the 18z landfall. GFS and Euro continue to dig in, this will be interesting.
0 likes   

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1477 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:25 pm

Do you remember that even if the models do get all the atmospheric ingredients correct on future Ian, any interaction with Cuba could have some major implications on future impact on Florida.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1478 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:26 pm

GFS won't correct until it figures out the 500mb pattern. Right now it sees 9 left behind and crawling north. Pretty much same as last run, a tad left, but for this far our hardly any significant change from the 12Z in my opinion.
8 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1479 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:26 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:Gfs may be right, but hard to trust with the big swings it has had with storm for example the sept 22 ooz
Had this in the middle of gulf


I'm going to have to go with WXMAN on this one who says the GFS is on crack thinking that it could get this far west/north

It could be onto something, but the wild swings are so suspect. Same model that almost had this hitting Texas just yesterday morning.

Also hard to believe that the GFS is 1 step ahead of the EURO when it has more ensembles on top of the EURO and ICON's tracks every time it runs...
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1480 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:28 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Going to be interesting to see who wins the GFS vs Euro battle. My money is on the Euro. It’s been the most consistent so far.


But with a stronger ridge to the north Euro is going to Annihilate the Tampa bay area in future runs..
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest