ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The final Recon mission is en route and should be there this evening (they canceled one for tomorrow since it will likely have made landfall).

The waters are warm enough all the way up to about 42°N latitude to support a solid hurricane, and there is incredible baroclinic forcing. If this can stay tropical to Nova Scotia, I could see this remaining a category 3 right up to landfall - which would be unprecedented.

[PavelGaborik10]

The final Recon mission is en route and should be there this evening (they canceled one for tomorrow since it will likely have made landfall).

The waters are warm enough all the way up to about 42°N latitude to support a solid hurricane, and there is incredible baroclinic forcing. If this can stay tropical to Nova Scotia, I could see this remaining a category 3 right up to landfall - which would be unprecedented.

What are your thoughts on the Hurricane Models shifting all the way from Canso last night to completely off shore of even the eastern tip of Cape Breton Island this afternoon?

Are they even worth looking at right now, with the hurricane clearly transitioning? That would be quite a last second shift of the center.

[tolakram]

[sikkar]

Jeez look at the size and outflow, such a frightening sight. Surge will be nasty.

[aspen]

Fiona is gigantic. Its oblate TS-force wild field has a maximum diameter of 500 nautical miles (~580 regular miles), with a hurricane wind field up to 180 nm (~210 mi) across. This could reach 600-700 nm before turning fully extratropical in the next 12 or so hours.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fitting that it turns into this beast as it’s final night as a tropical system.

[CrazyC83]

The final Recon mission is en route and should be there this evening (they canceled one for tomorrow since it will likely have made landfall).

The waters are warm enough all the way up to about 42°N latitude to support a solid hurricane, and there is incredible baroclinic forcing. If this can stay tropical to Nova Scotia, I could see this remaining a category 3 right up to landfall - which would be unprecedented.

What are your thoughts on the Hurricane Models shifting all the way from Canso last night to completely off shore of even the eastern tip of Cape Breton Island this afternoon?

Are they even worth looking at right now, with the hurricane clearly transitioning? That would be quite a last second shift of the center.

That wouldn't be a very significant shift, but it's possible.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/LSAnUH3ZKUw[/youtube]

[cainjamin]

It's been raining steadily for a few hours here in the Annapolis Valley NS, but just starting to get gusty now. This is Nova Scotia's agricultural area, so all the orchards and vineyards were rushing to harvest as much as they could. Hopefully it won't be a complete wash like it was after Dorian and Arthur.

[PavelGaborik10]

The final Recon mission is en route and should be there this evening (they canceled one for tomorrow since it will likely have made landfall).

The waters are warm enough all the way up to about 42°N latitude to support a solid hurricane, and there is incredible baroclinic forcing. If this can stay tropical to Nova Scotia, I could see this remaining a category 3 right up to landfall - which would be unprecedented.

What are your thoughts on the Hurricane Models shifting all the way from Canso last night to completely off shore of even the eastern tip of Cape Breton Island this afternoon?

Are they even worth looking at right now, with the hurricane clearly transitioning? That would be quite a last second shift of the center.

That wouldn't be a very significant shift, but it's possible.

Would be a roughly 350 KM shift from last nights runs, which I would consider significant this late in the game.

It turns out it was a glitch though.

[brad512]

In Sackville NB, winds have just began to pick up as of around 2 hrs ago. Not too bad so far but it's still early. A few infrequent gusts every few mins that I'd estimate to be around 50-60kmh.

[cainjamin]

Wow, pressure is down to about 928 from recon I know the models had been predicting it for days but I didn't really expect it to actually get that low. Atlantic Canada is in for a mess.

[Sciencerocks]

[cainjamin]

Center temp is still 20°C as well. I'm not knowledgeable enough to say if that means it's still totally warm core but definitely still has some characteristics at least. It might even make landfall as a tropical system on Sable Island as well.

[CrazyC83]

It's been raining steadily for a few hours here in the Annapolis Valley NS, but just starting to get gusty now. This is Nova Scotia's agricultural area, so all the orchards and vineyards were rushing to harvest as much as they could. Hopefully it won't be a complete wash like it was after Dorian and Arthur.

Fortunately, the worst will be to your east but tropical storm conditions are still likely there.

[CrazyC83]

Center temp is still 20°C as well. I'm not knowledgeable enough to say if that means it's still totally warm core but definitely still has some characteristics at least. It might even make landfall as a tropical system on Sable Island as well.

That would be the first landfall of a major hurricane ever in Canada.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1573464796795633686

[NotoSans]

Center temp is still 20°C as well. I'm not knowledgeable enough to say if that means it's still totally warm core but definitely still has some characteristics at least. It might even make landfall as a tropical system on Sable Island as well.

Models have been predicting a warm-seclusion type cyclone and this is materialising. Wind shift from recon suggests the frontal boundary is near the centre so Fiona is about to become extratropical.

[NotoSans]

Dropsonde suggests 932mb.

[sbcc]

Lots of Nova Scotia webcams on this site I just found, some are live including this one at Peggy's Cove: https://www.novascotiawebcams.com/en/webcams/peggys-cove-lighthouse/