WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

T2216(Noru)
Issued at 2022/09/23 07:15 UTC
Analysis at 09/23 06 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°40′ (17.7°)
E131°20′ (131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 165 km (90 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Southward shift from Euro and GFS on latest run

[Hayabusa]

06Z

[doomhaMwx]

Noru certainly needs to be closely watched this Saturday. Models (GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF) show that it will try to undergo RI starting by 06Z until its landfall over Luzon on Sunday, and the only thing that would possibly stop it from getting really strong is limited time over water.

[Hayabusa]

Latest warning 70 knots before landfall and adjusted south again

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1573357223212118016



Tropical Storm Hunga-Tonga

[mrbagyo]

Still sheared from the north but that Cloud mass has started to get that curved look.
If that shear relaxes even more, Noru could easily explode to major typhoon status.

[doomhaMwx]

^Look at that vigorous MLC on microwave. Once the LLC gets vertically aligned with it, this thing will easily skyrocket to typhoon status.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like the previously partially-exposed LLCC has quickly nestled in underneath the deep convection.

[cycloneye]

Structure improving.

[somethingfunny]

Tracking south of west and expected to intensify all the way until landfall in the Philippines in 36 hours... I could almost certainly guess this will be a significant impact for the Philippines much stronger than JTWC's expected 70kt

[Hurricane2022]

If this trend of intensification continues, i'll expect a Cat 3/4 landfall in PH

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

18Z

96 knots before landfall, still expect a south shift from HWRF

[mrbagyo]

Himawari-8 mesoscale sector now focused on Noru

[mrbagyo]

JMA is now expecting a typhoon before Luzon landfall


T2216(Noru)
Issued at 2022/09/24 03:45 UTC
Analysis at 09/24 03 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°05′ (16.1°)
E127°30′ (127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 35 km (20 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SW280 km (150 NM)
NE220 km (120 NM)
Forecast for 09/24 15 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50′ (15.8°)
E125°00′ (125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 100 km (55 NM)
Forecast for 09/25 03 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°40′ (15.7°)
E123°00′ (123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 80 km (42 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 135 km (72 NM)
Forecast for 09/26 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°35′ (16.6°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 175 km (95 NM)
Forecast for 09/27 00 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05′ (16.1°)
E111°55′ (111.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 280 km (150 NM)
Forecast for 09/28 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55′ (15.9°)
E107°25′ (107.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 350 km (190 NM)
Forecast for 09/29 00 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30′ (15.5°)
E103°50′ (103.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

[dexterlabio]

https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1573357223212118016
Tropical Storm Hunga-Tonga

right after this gravity wave-inducing convection burst, Noru’s structure significantly improved.

[mrbagyo]

00z GFS puts Noru's landfall further south, now even Quezon povince- Aurora province border is in play

[mrbagyo]

Latest microwave pass shows a tiny eye but it doesn't look perfectly aligned with the LLC (at least not yet).