ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Yes we have an I curse. But not all I storms are created equal. Judging by some of the models, I'm afraid to say that future Ian has the potential to become one of the most infamous members of the I group. Like along the levels of Irma or Ike, rather than Ingrid or Igor.

You forgot Isabel!

[Weatherboy1]

Not for nothing, but it seems like 9 is continuing to consolidate around the original center vs. something more SW like a few models were hinting at. Overall satellite presentation also continues to improve IMO.

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1573364109072015361

Want to point this out because I'm already seeing people ignoring this storm.

WOW!!!!

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1573361006042120194

Yes, Whitmeyer, ALL OF US can tell. It's very obvious that you are a yank and not from ANYWHERE NEAR florida...

If you're living in Florida and not watching S2K from June to November, you might deserve to lose the roof to your home.

On a more serious note, we've all seen the craziness in our weather. From beach snow to fish falling from the sky (waterspout making landfall), we have it all.

And yes, nasty thunderstorms and tropical systems.

But we do not own ice scrapers south of I-4.

[CronkPSU]

any news from recon? i know they were having issues earlier

[Iceresistance]

any news from recon? i know they were having issues earlier

Still nothing

[Michele B]

The gas station on Sanibel was like a normal day and I filled-up no problem...

Good for you. At least this is the slowest month of the year on the island as far as tourists goes, usually.

Our Wal-Mart is already out of gas AND water!

Gonna be a crazy week-end! Glad I'm not going anywhere....

[eastcoastFL]

https://youtu.be/LSAnUH3ZKUw

That was a really good Video. Gave a lot of clarity on the role the trough coming down from Canada might play in steering towards FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

[eastcoastFL]

The gas station on Sanibel was like a normal day and I filled-up no problem...

Good for you. At least this is the slowest month of the year on the island as far as tourists goes, usually.

Our Wal-Mart is already out of gas AND water!

Gonna be a crazy week-end! Glad I'm not going anywhere....

I went to Publix in palm city an hour ago. I got the last 6 jugs of water, everything else was gone. But water has been in limited supply here for a while for some reason.

[eastcoastFL]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

https://i.ibb.co/0Qf77sx/hwrf-z850-vort-09-L-fh0-12.gif

How might that effect the track? If it moves WSW does that slow down the track making it so the storm could miss the trough and sit over the gulf for a bit before tracking north?

[Aric Dunn]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

https://i.ibb.co/0Qf77sx/hwrf-z850-vort-09-L-fh0-12.gif

How might that effect the track? If it moves WSW does that slow down the track making it so the storm could miss the trough and sit over the gulf for a bit before tracking north?

it is possible.. hard to say as there are a lot of things that can change.

[aspen]

2 hours without any update on the recon plane is…not great. Hopefully this WCar system isn’t plagued with AF recon plane malfunctions like a certain other WCar major.

[Vdogg]

Yes we have an I curse. But not all I storms are created equal. Judging by some of the models, I'm afraid to say that future Ian has the potential to become one of the most infamous members of the I group. Like along the levels of Irma or Ike, rather than Ingrid or Igor.

You forgot Isabel!

No one forgets Isabel. That was the worst storm we had in 80 years. Hampton Roads never fails well with "I" storms.

[Javlin]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

Aric I had a thought but is it possible the vort to the SW drags the other main vort to the W? Or we get a stack later?The SW vort looks more like one of those eddies one fines in a developing system although quite the vigorous one in this case.You are not kidding been at work all day but the main vort is stationary for a few hours if that drags out becomes part of the equation down the road.....miss.

[St0rmTh0r]

Increadible imagery coming in on the Floater off GOES-16. Clearly still has shear coming in from the NE, as expected. But look at those tops and ripples coming out. Venting is underway, but it will likley be some time before that surface low tucks up and under the deep convection. When it gets going, I still see this exploding over near the Cayman Islands.
https://imgur.com/w4XqThr

thats some volcanic hot water its crossing looking at an historic storm in the making

[SapphireSea]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

Seems to already be happening. Last few images there is definately some notable circulation fairly SW.

[Aric Dunn]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

Aric I had a thought but is it possible the vort to the SW drags the other main vort to the W? Or we get a stack later?The SW vort looks more like one of those eddies one fines in a developing system although quite the vigorous one in this case.

if it works to the surface and has convection then the original one would move west but then die. several possible scenarios are possible. right now until we get recon data to see if there is anything around 850 mb layer in that convection we are in the dar.

[skyline385]

Looks like it’s almost ready to go

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1573467078794760192





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[Nimbus]

Most of the lightning appears near 15.3N but there is some further southwest near 14.9N.
Recon probably won't find a secondary circulation though.
18z HWRF track passes over the tip of Cuba and then north up into the ridge stays off west coast of Florida same as HMON CMC GFS.

[BobHarlem]

Looks like it’s almost ready to go

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1573467078794760192?s=46&t=iJeg6tRQ0PtyS_aybRW1Tw


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Hoping this clears up the shorter term model divergence driving the differences between Euro and Gfs right now. I think the SW lobe is confusing the GFS.