ATL: IAN - Models
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
I'm so very happy that the EURO is coming in weaker!... Maybe it will really struggle out there and only get up to a Cat 1 before hitting Cuba........... Euro is obviously seeing something it doesn't like.......
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Wasn’t sure exactly where to post this but I guess this is more for the models thread.
Discussion from the weather prediction center today
Discussion from the weather prediction center today
Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The latest run of the GFS continues to favor a more western,
slower track of Tropical Depression Nine that would result in
double digit rainfall that's roughly 10+ inches heaver than the
rest of the guidance with more impacts to the western part of the
Florida Peninsula. The UKMET and CMC are more of a middle ground
approach but lean closer to the ECWMF solution that is faster,
clips Florida and then races out over the Atlantic quickly near
the advancing front. It also suggests that the northern
stream/trough over the East will help move the tropical feature
along instead of cutting off/spinning to its death. The NHC's
track is favoring an evolution closer to that of the ECWMF.
Therefore the WPC's blend initially was a multi-model blend with
lesser weighting of the GFS and then transitioned toward an
ECWMF/GFS/GEFS and EC ensemble means compromise.
There is still moderate spread with the details of the eastern
trough beyond those noted from the 12Z ECMWF. Run-to-run
variability persists with the timing of the trough pushing inland
the Pacific Northwest, but is fairly common for that time frame
but diverge in the later periods where troughing remains or if
ridging tries to rebuild.
The latest run of the GFS continues to favor a more western,
slower track of Tropical Depression Nine that would result in
double digit rainfall that's roughly 10+ inches heaver than the
rest of the guidance with more impacts to the western part of the
Florida Peninsula. The UKMET and CMC are more of a middle ground
approach but lean closer to the ECWMF solution that is faster,
clips Florida and then races out over the Atlantic quickly near
the advancing front. It also suggests that the northern
stream/trough over the East will help move the tropical feature
along instead of cutting off/spinning to its death. The NHC's
track is favoring an evolution closer to that of the ECWMF.
Therefore the WPC's blend initially was a multi-model blend with
lesser weighting of the GFS and then transitioned toward an
ECWMF/GFS/GEFS and EC ensemble means compromise.
There is still moderate spread with the details of the eastern
trough beyond those noted from the 12Z ECMWF. Run-to-run
variability persists with the timing of the trough pushing inland
the Pacific Northwest, but is fairly common for that time frame
but diverge in the later periods where troughing remains or if
ridging tries to rebuild.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm so very happy that the EURO is coming in weaker!... Maybe it will really struggle out there and only get up to a Cat 1 before hitting Cuba........... Euro is obviously seeing something it doesn't like.......
Maybe a little premature? Euro last run had 949mb at landfall, which is dramatically low for a global model
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Full 18Z run
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DESTRUCTION5
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
sma10 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm so very happy that the EURO is coming in weaker!... Maybe it will really struggle out there and only get up to a Cat 1 before hitting Cuba........... Euro is obviously seeing something it doesn't like.......
Maybe a little premature? Euro last run had 949mb at landfall, which is dramatically low for a global model
I think that last run with it at 949mb was a bit of a fluke, especially at how it went right back to a weaker cane on this run....
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
The GFS shifts left and the Euro shifts right. Battle of the titans is on.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm so very happy that the EURO is coming in weaker!... Maybe it will really struggle out there and only get up to a Cat 1 before hitting Cuba........... Euro is obviously seeing something it doesn't like.......
That's quite literally the NHC forecast. Cat 1 before Cuba.
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm so very happy that the EURO is coming in weaker!... Maybe it will really struggle out there and only get up to a Cat 1 before hitting Cuba........... Euro is obviously seeing something it doesn't like.......
You're just assuming something is guaranteed going to happen from just one model run, when it constantly shifts in track and intensity. Wait until an actual trend emerges from this. A bit optimistic right now considering Ian is still developing.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Plenty of time for intensification on the euro if it were to affect Florida.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
0z Earlies, TVCN shifted right again from Bradenton at 18z to landfall Englewood now and then goes right over Orlando.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
skyline385 wrote:18Z EPS, seems like a decent shift west towards the GFS
https://i.imgur.com/otBED5N.png
https://i.imgur.com/yBzB6yg.png
That ain’t a shift. It’s a consolidation.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
toad strangler wrote:skyline385 wrote:18Z EPS, seems like a decent shift west towards the GFS
https://i.imgur.com/otBED5N.png
https://i.imgur.com/yBzB6yg.png
That ain’t a shift. It’s a consolidation.
The mean track shifted west
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
BobHarlem wrote:0z Earlies, TVCN shifted right again landfall Englewood and goes right over Orlando.
https://i.imgur.com/BsvW8aF.png
Can someone explain why the TVCN takes a slight turn NW after it exits the east coast of Florida? Seems like an odd turn for such a short distance.
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
galaxy401 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm so very happy that the EURO is coming in weaker!... Maybe it will really struggle out there and only get up to a Cat 1 before hitting Cuba........... Euro is obviously seeing something it doesn't like.......
You're just assuming something is guaranteed going to happen from just one model run, when it constantly shifts in track and intensity. Wait until an actual trend emerges from this. A bit optimistic right now considering Ian is still developing.
Hey, I'm an optimist, what can I say?
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