Aric Dunn wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.
Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.
https://i.ibb.co/0Qf77sx/hwrf-z850-vort-09-L-fh0-12.gif
How might that effect the track? If it moves WSW does that slow down the track making it so the storm could miss the trough and sit over the gulf for a bit before tracking north?
it is possible.. hard to say as there are a lot of things that can change.
I can’t remember what storm it was but a few years back you noticed some short wave coming all the way down to Alabama that nobody saw and said it would play a role in the trajectory of the track and sure did down the road. Ever since then I’ve been looking for stuff like that and how it can come into play. I guess we’re in wait and see mode with this one.