ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

My money on the Euro and it’s Ensembles as 57 has said many times gfs is to far west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.postimg.cc/L8SpLZQF/D131-B8-F2-5590-4440-AF8-B-8-C4-D3-F055-C56.png

https://i.postimg.cc/VkFcRL2r/435-F50-B6-92-CB-45-AD-A765-D93610-C9-BE26.png

For sure a slight west shift, but was it that drastic?

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/L8SpLZQF/D131-B8-F2-5590-4440-AF8-B-8-C4-D3-F055-C56.png

https://i.postimg.cc/VkFcRL2r/435-F50-B6-92-CB-45-AD-A765-D93610-C9-BE26.png

The strongest members are the western ones though over the Gulf

As if global models know anything about intensity lol.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18Z EPS, seems like a decent shift west towards the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/otBED5N.png
https://i.imgur.com/yBzB6yg.png

That ain’t a shift. It’s a consolidation.

Yeah, exactly. People need to start looking at solutions like "the Euro needs to cave to the GFS" or the "GFS will cave to the Euro". In reality, neither will happen and the final solution will likely be in the middle.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/L8SpLZQF/D131-B8-F2-5590-4440-AF8-B-8-C4-D3-F055-C56.png

https://i.postimg.cc/VkFcRL2r/435-F50-B6-92-CB-45-AD-A765-D93610-C9-BE26.png

For sure a slight west shift, but was it that drastic?

West shift? I don’t see it lol. Infact the 18z ecm op was very far east. South Florida gets the dirty side there

[Blown Away]

My money on the Euro and it’s Ensembles as 57 has said many times gfs is to far west.

18z ECMWF is slightly east at 90 hours.

[skyline385]

https://i.postimg.cc/L8SpLZQF/D131-B8-F2-5590-4440-AF8-B-8-C4-D3-F055-C56.png

https://i.postimg.cc/VkFcRL2r/435-F50-B6-92-CB-45-AD-A765-D93610-C9-BE26.png

For sure a slight west shift, but was it that drastic?

West shift? I don’t see it lol. Infact the 18z ecm op was very far east. South Florida gets the dirty side there

You can see it on the control member

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM has shifted west and MUCH stronger since the 18Z run yesterday. Noticed the last NAVGEM run on TT is 06Z. Guessing Levi disabled it to increase bandwidth for the good models:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1573467064794218517

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://i.postimg.cc/L8SpLZQF/D131-B8-F2-5590-4440-AF8-B-8-C4-D3-F055-C56.png

https://i.postimg.cc/VkFcRL2r/435-F50-B6-92-CB-45-AD-A765-D93610-C9-BE26.png

For sure a slight west shift, but was it that drastic?

West shift? I don’t see it lol. Infact the 18z ecm op was very far east. South Florida gets the dirty side there

Yea they just tightened up . Now much less miss to the south and are over Sfl. Have a feeling if the 00z follows the 18z trend the operational will be in Sfl.

[SFLcane]

18Z NAVGEM has shifted west and MUCH stronger since the 18Z run yesterday. Noticed the last NAVGEM run on TT is 06Z. Guessing Levi disabled it to increase bandwidth for the good models:

https://i.postimg.cc/k5GG1xWt/nvg10-sfc10m-114-go-mex.gif

What is the Nogaps? Might as well use the Nam.

[ronjon]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

[caneman]

My money on the Euro and it’s Ensembles as 57 has said many times gfs is to far west.

He also said he expected landfall between Tampa and Cape Coral

[gatorcane]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

[CronkPSU]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

the NHC definitely doesn't think the Euro is an outlier....

[RevanTheJedi96]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

Maybe but we'll have to wait a few days to see

[Bocadude85]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

My money is on the further south solutions, how often have we seen systems that are moving NE hook even more to the right then forecast? The westerlies that are forecast across the northern gulf are going to push this to the right. I’m going to say landfall between Everglades City and Ft. Myers as a mid range Cat 3, of course this is just my amateur opinion.

[caneman]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

the NHC definitely doesn't think the Euro is an outlier....

It certainly must. It's given equal weight to the other models.

[SapphireSea]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

My money is on the further south solutions, how often have we seen systems that are moving NE hook even more to the right then forecast? The westerlies that are forecast across the northern gulf are going to push this to the right. I’m going to say landfall between Everglades City and Ft. Myers as a mid range Cat 3, of course this is just my amateur opinion.

Would probably agree. Seems like there is less differences between GFS and EC that is let on. Big difference from what I can glean is that GFS is weighing heavier on upper layers for steering like a much stronger storm (700-250mb) and it predicts an upper high closer to Florida. The EC is weighing the bit weaker (850mb-500mb) more and has upper ridge a bit further away from Florida.

I think W57 and anyone else that GFS is too left is probably right too. Can see low-level vorticity showing where the trof influence / front is going to be present, and the GFS unrealistically goes through it with minimal shear and no adjustment to the right as would be expected; And doesn't weaken Ian until Big Bend. EC is handling this better and you can see the influence of this zone behave more realistically.

[cheezyWXguy]

My money on the Euro and it’s Ensembles as 57 has said many times gfs is to far west.

This isn’t a binary. These two ops are just 2 scenarios of a range. Between the euro underdoing intensity and the gfs overdoing it’s northward push in spite of the upper west-east flow, it’s increasingly likely that the ultimate track will lie somewhere between them