ATL: IAN - Models

[eastcoastFL]

My money on the Euro and it’s Ensembles as 57 has said many times gfs is to far west.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/B6dj1XLP/ecmwf-uv10-watl-trend.gif [/url]

18z ECMWF is slightly east at 90 hours.

Is the trough still really deep in this run?

[eastcoastFL]

For sure a slight west shift, but was it that drastic?

West shift? I don’t see it lol. Infact the 18z ecm op was very far east. South Florida gets the dirty side there

You can see it on the control member

https://i.imgur.com/C6gaVt2.png
https://i.imgur.com/2epjoBK.png

They look almost the same to me. Maybe a few miles west?

[eastcoastFL]

18Z NAVGEM has shifted west and MUCH stronger since the 18Z run yesterday. Noticed the last NAVGEM run on TT is 06Z. Guessing Levi disabled it to increase bandwidth for the good models:

https://i.postimg.cc/k5GG1xWt/nvg10-sfc10m-114-go-mex.gif

Is that the same one you showed me last night that was the model still missing us to the east?

[caneman]

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

My money is on the further south solutions, how often have we seen systems that are moving NE hook even more to the right then forecast? The westerlies that are forecast across the northern gulf are going to push this to the right. I’m going to say landfall between Everglades City and Ft. Myers as a mid range Cat 3, of course this is just my amateur opinion.

Would probably agree. Seems like there is less differences between GFS and EC that is let on. Big difference from what I can glean is that GFS is weighing heavier on upper layers for steering like a much stronger storm (700-250mb) and it predicts an upper high closer to Florida. The EC is weighing the bit weaker (850mb-500mb) more and has upper ridge a bit further away from Florida.

I think W57 and anyone else that GFS is too left is probably right too. Can see low-level vorticity showing where the trof influence / front is going to be present, and the GFS unrealistically goes through it with minimal shear and no adjustment to the right as would be expected; And doesn't weaken Ian until Big Bend. EC is handling this better and you can see the influence of this zone behave more realistically.

I highly doubt Euro is handling anything better. Its also showing a weaker system. That won't be determined until post cyclone. If anything, NHC has been shifting more to the western solution and I think we'll get another west shift at 11

[AxaltaRacing24]

My money is on the further south solutions, how often have we seen systems that are moving NE hook even more to the right then forecast? The westerlies that are forecast across the northern gulf are going to push this to the right. I’m going to say landfall between Everglades City and Ft. Myers as a mid range Cat 3, of course this is just my amateur opinion.

Would probably agree. Seems like there is less differences between GFS and EC that is let on. Big difference from what I can glean is that GFS is weighing heavier on upper layers for steering like a much stronger storm (700-250mb) and it predicts an upper high closer to Florida. The EC is weighing the bit weaker (850mb-500mb) more and has upper ridge a bit further away from Florida.

I think W57 and anyone else that GFS is too left is probably right too. Can see low-level vorticity showing where the trof influence / front is going to be present, and the GFS unrealistically goes through it with minimal shear and no adjustment to the right as would be expected; And doesn't weaken Ian until Big Bend. EC is handling this better and you can see the influence of this zone behave more realistically.

I highly doubt Euro is handling anything better. Its also showing a weaker system. That won't be determined until post cyclone. If anything, NHC has been shifting more to the western solution and I think we'll get another west shift at 11

Why would we? the TVCN just shifted east and models like the Euro are holding serve right now. Along with more GEFS ensembles entertaining the Euro's solution.

[eastcoastFL]

My money is on the further south solutions, how often have we seen systems that are moving NE hook even more to the right then forecast? The westerlies that are forecast across the northern gulf are going to push this to the right. I’m going to say landfall between Everglades City and Ft. Myers as a mid range Cat 3, of course this is just my amateur opinion.

Would probably agree. Seems like there is less differences between GFS and EC that is let on. Big difference from what I can glean is that GFS is weighing heavier on upper layers for steering like a much stronger storm (700-250mb) and it predicts an upper high closer to Florida. The EC is weighing the bit weaker (850mb-500mb) more and has upper ridge a bit further away from Florida.

I think W57 and anyone else that GFS is too left is probably right too. Can see low-level vorticity showing where the trof influence / front is going to be present, and the GFS unrealistically goes through it with minimal shear and no adjustment to the right as would be expected; And doesn't weaken Ian until Big Bend. EC is handling this better and you can see the influence of this zone behave more realistically.

I highly doubt Euro is handling anything better. Its also showing a weaker system. That won't be determined until post cyclone. If anything, NHC has been shifting more to the western solution and I think we'll get another west shift at 11

I don’t know, the GFS has been all over the map so it’s kind of hard to lend too much credence towards it. The NHC seems to be leaning more towards the euro solution for a reason since they began advisories. The trough is obviously going to be a player in the track and the euro depicts it much stronger and keeps it around longer than the GFS does. GFS shows it getting kicked out to sea fairly quickly and then the ridge over Texas starts influencing the system as well making it sorts drift more north for a short period. So it’s anyones guess for now.

I imagine timing will be key for those set ups as well so we have to wait and see how fast it moves across the Caribbean. Then land interaction with Cuba could through a wrench into the final track and timing as well.

[caneman]

Would probably agree. Seems like there is less differences between GFS and EC that is let on. Big difference from what I can glean is that GFS is weighing heavier on upper layers for steering like a much stronger storm (700-250mb) and it predicts an upper high closer to Florida. The EC is weighing the bit weaker (850mb-500mb) more and has upper ridge a bit further away from Florida.

I think W57 and anyone else that GFS is too left is probably right too. Can see low-level vorticity showing where the trof influence / front is going to be present, and the GFS unrealistically goes through it with minimal shear and no adjustment to the right as would be expected; And doesn't weaken Ian until Big Bend. EC is handling this better and you can see the influence of this zone behave more realistically.

I highly doubt Euro is handling anything better. Its also showing a weaker system. That won't be determined until post cyclone. If anything, NHC has been shifting more to the western solution and I think we'll get another west shift at 11

Why would we? the TVCN just shifted east and models like the Euro are holding serve right now. Along with more GEFS ensembles entertaining the Euro's solution.

The 8:00 update indicates roughly Sarasota. And that in no way indicates they are putting more faith in the Euro as the other poster indicated. The Euro is now all the way down at the tip of the peninsula and weak.

[Poonwalker]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

I think this is purely a difference in depth and persistence of the trough between the two big models. A weaker storm will be less influenced and would actually favor a more west track. Euro is insisting on a more robust trough through day 5 and 6 and even has a weaker storm being picked up by it. GFS is having trouble predicting the trough each run. Euro has been more consistent in that aspect but doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more “right”.

[caneman]

Would probably agree. Seems like there is less differences between GFS and EC that is let on. Big difference from what I can glean is that GFS is weighing heavier on upper layers for steering like a much stronger storm (700-250mb) and it predicts an upper high closer to Florida. The EC is weighing the bit weaker (850mb-500mb) more and has upper ridge a bit further away from Florida.

I think W57 and anyone else that GFS is too left is probably right too. Can see low-level vorticity showing where the trof influence / front is going to be present, and the GFS unrealistically goes through it with minimal shear and no adjustment to the right as would be expected; And doesn't weaken Ian until Big Bend. EC is handling this better and you can see the influence of this zone behave more realistically.

I highly doubt Euro is handling anything better. Its also showing a weaker system. That won't be determined until post cyclone. If anything, NHC has been shifting more to the western solution and I think we'll get another west shift at 11

I don’t know, the GFS has been all over the map so it’s kind of hard to lend too much credence towards it. The NHC seems to be leaning more towards the euro solution for a reason since they began advisories. The trough is obviously going to be a player in the track and the euro depicts it much stronger and keeps it around longer than the GFS does. GFS shows it getting kicked out to sea fairly quickly and then the ridge over Texas starts influencing the system as well making it sorts drift more north for a short period. So it’s anyones guess for now.

I imagine timing will be key for those set ups as well so we have to wait and see how fast it moves across the Caribbean. Then land interaction with Cuba could through a wrench into the final track and timing as well.

The GFS has been pretty consistent now for the last couple of days. Most other models have landfall roughly the same area. The Euro is now on the Southern tip of Florida and weak. The NHC isn't giving them more credance than others. It looks like they are giving equal weighting to the models. Edit: looks like Euro is now up in Tampa which is where GFS and others have spent the last 2 days so it too has had wild swings

[CronkPSU]

I highly doubt Euro is handling anything better. Its also showing a weaker system. That won't be determined until post cyclone. If anything, NHC has been shifting more to the western solution and I think we'll get another west shift at 11

I don’t know, the GFS has been all over the map so it’s kind of hard to lend too much credence towards it. The NHC seems to be leaning more towards the euro solution for a reason since they began advisories. The trough is obviously going to be a player in the track and the euro depicts it much stronger and keeps it around longer than the GFS does. GFS shows it getting kicked out to sea fairly quickly and then the ridge over Texas starts influencing the system as well making it sorts drift more north for a short period. So it’s anyones guess for now.

I imagine timing will be key for those set ups as well so we have to wait and see how fast it moves across the Caribbean. Then land interaction with Cuba could through a wrench into the final track and timing as well.

The GFS has been pretty consistent now for the last couple of days. Most other models have landfall roughly the same area. The Euro is now on the Southern tip of Florida and weak. The NHC isn't giving them more credance than others. It looks like they are giving equal weighting to the models

I am not sure what you are talking about...the Euro and the NHC paths are nearly identical...the GFS is way up near the panhandle

 https://twitter.com/TMainolfiWESH/status/1573503758163656706



 https://twitter.com/JaredWAFB/status/1573481187363921928

[caneman]

People need to stop with the modeling wars. As I mentioned above. There isn't more weighting put on the Euro From the NHC.
The new NHC forecast lies between
Several modeling scenarios and is not much different from the previous
forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give
more credence to the position of the official forecast.

[caneman]

I don’t know, the GFS has been all over the map so it’s kind of hard to lend too much credence towards it. The NHC seems to be leaning more towards the euro solution for a reason since they began advisories. The trough is obviously going to be a player in the track and the euro depicts it much stronger and keeps it around longer than the GFS does. GFS shows it getting kicked out to sea fairly quickly and then the ridge over Texas starts influencing the system as well making it sorts drift more north for a short period. So it’s anyones guess for now.

I imagine timing will be key for those set ups as well so we have to wait and see how fast it moves across the Caribbean. Then land interaction with Cuba could through a wrench into the final track and timing as well.

The GFS has been pretty consistent now for the last couple of days. Most other models have landfall roughly the same area. The Euro is now on the Southern tip of Florida and weak. The NHC isn't giving them more credance than others. It looks like they are giving equal weighting to the models

I am not sure what you are talking about...the Euro and the NHC paths are nearly identical...the GFS is way up near the panhandle

https://twitter.com/TMainolfiWESH/status/1573503758163656706/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JaredWAFB/status/1573481187363921928?s=20&t=yPAvE1wF0rl_V7l2qQhDNA

And the Euro was basically out to sea yesterday. They've also had wild swings and even wilder swings in strength so for me I'll stick with the blend OF ALL MODELS which ironically is exactly what the NHC does.

[caneman]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

I think this is purely a difference in depth and persistence of the trough between the two big models. A weaker storm will be less influenced and would actually favor a more west track. Euro is insisting on a more robust trough through day 5 and 6 and even has a weaker storm being picked up by it. GFS is having trouble predicting the trough each run. Euro has been more consistent in that aspect.

Euro yesterday was basically out to sea with a variety of different strengths So, I'll choose to trust the blend of all models like what the NHC is doing.

[psyclone]

The 11 pm ticks right at the latitude of tampa bay. Offshore wind for them were that to verify. Ft Myers and charlotte harbor would get hosed with big surge & onshore flow. That turn is going to be key. Right side vs left side. crikey

[tolakram]

Very little if any change in track.

[caneseddy]

Very little if any change in track.

https://i.imgur.com/v3jSUMk.gif

Around a 30 mile difference at landfall. 5:00 pm was Sarasota; 11:00 pm is Englewood

[caneman]

The 11 pm ticks right at the latitude of tampa bay. Offshore wind for them were that to verify. Ft Myers and charlotte harbor would get hosed with big surge & onshore flow. That turn is going to be key. Right side vs left side. crikey

Darn near right up the bay. 25 mile swing North and it's massive surge up Tampa bay. When is NOAA flying? Anyone know?

[N2FSU]

Last two forecast coordinates plotted on Foreflight from the 11:00pm advisory:


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[tolakram]

The storm will not track in a straight line between points. I think you're seeing computer artifacts rather than a real change in track, but I could be wrong.

[NDG]

The reason why SHIPS gives it a high chance for Rapid Intensification while in the NW Caribbean: well below 10 knots of shear, SSTs 30-31C, and moist environment.
I would be surprised if it becomes a Cat 3 before crossing Cuba.