ATL: IAN - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1641 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:22 pm

I don't believe that slowdown and weakening. The 500mb already corrected big time since last run but still moves trough out much faster than the euro. If it continues to correct then Ian should move east sooner and faster similar to the Euro. This assumes, of course, that the Euro has a better handle on the 500mb, which it usually does. Usually.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1642 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:24 pm

tolakram wrote:0z run

https://i.imgur.com/GAIV3vv.gif


Did the initialized position look good?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1643 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:28 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573525430149255175



"If the GFS somehow does verify, I wouldn't be surprised if Ian only hits Florida as a tropical storm. It would be sheared apart completely before landfallThat said, I don't see much chance for the GFS to verify
-- Derek Ortt (@DerekOrtt) September 24, 2022"




That's why I'm rooting for the GFS, as Derek mentioned above it would more than likely be sheared apart to just tropical storm status by landfall if the GFS verifies... Of course I'd want it to move fast so that nobody gets flooded........... Lots of respect for Derek. He was great with the tropics when he use to visit this board, prior to him becoming a meteorologist. Unfortunately like he said, the GFS doesn't have much of a chance to verify and wxman is on board with this as well..........
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1644 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:41 pm

Canadian leftmost outlier..landfalls in Panama City Beach
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1645 Postby MrJames » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:55 pm

UKMET 0z has landfall around Tampa but at no more than TS.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573527027101143053


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1646 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:24 am

MrJames wrote:UKMET 0z has landfall around Tampa but at no more than TS.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573527027101143053

From what I’ve seen, the ukmet is…problematic. It will very occasionally get the track right but I can’t recall the last time it was even in the ballpark on intensity
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1647 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:25 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
MrJames wrote:UKMET 0z has landfall around Tampa but at no more than TS.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573527027101143053

From what I’ve seen, the ukmet is…problematic. It will very occasionally get the track right but I can’t recall the last time it was even in the ballpark on intensity

I last remember it making good calls in 2017, hard to believe how good the UK was compared to now.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1648 Postby chargurl » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:52 am

I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1649 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:59 am

chargurl wrote:I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?


should just start running right now...someone will post it as it loads
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1650 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:15 am

CronkPSU wrote:
chargurl wrote:I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?


should just start running right now...someone will post it as it loads

Too tired to post but EC-fast is out through hour 72 on tropical tidbits. Notable SW shift through that timeframe, though still unrealistically weak
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1651 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:22 am

chargurl wrote:I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?


The 0z Euro-fast is into Charlotte Harbor/Sarasota in 120 hours
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1652 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:29 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1653 Postby djones65 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:34 am

Does anyone remember Elena `85?
Very similar situation. Just couple weeks later!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1654 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:35 am

It is clear that we are far from agreement but the risk of a stall near or on Florida seems to be increasing.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1655 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:37 am

0Z EURO doesnt appear quite as deep compared to the 12Z run.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1656 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:38 am

Image
00z ECMWF
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1657 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:41 am

Well that's the ugliest run yet! Euro not buying the stall at all!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1658 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:42 am

No suggestion of any stall with that run
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1659 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:20 am

I never bought into the GFS stall, all the way back to when it was floating around the western GOM. Doesn’t make sense in this setup.

Progressive, progressive, progressive.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1660 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:11 am

Image

Can someone just toss the GEFS into the trash? :spam:
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