ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/KyleTWN/status/1573555103600349185

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the landfall pressure, based on wind data at that location at the time, was 934 mb.

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

There is very severe damage in Prince Edward Island, eastern Nova Scotia and southwestern Newfoundland. More than 600,000 are without power right now in the region.

[CrazyC83]

This is completely unofficial: As far as how I would assess the best track of Fiona, here is my thinking:

AL072022, FIONA, 53,
20220914, 0000, , LO, 15.5N, 46.6W, 25, 1012,
20220914, 0600, , LO, 15.9N, 47.8W, 25, 1011,
20220914, 1200, , TS, 16.4N, 49.1W, 35, 1009,
20220914, 1800, , TS, 16.7N, 50.2W, 40, 1006,
20220915, 0000, , TS, 16.6N, 51.3W, 45, 1004,
20220915, 0600, , TS, 16.5N, 52.4W, 50, 1002,
20220915, 1200, , TS, 16.4N, 53.6W, 55, 1000,
20220915, 1800, , TS, 16.3N, 54.9W, 50, 1003,
20220916, 0000, , TS, 16.0N, 56.2W, 50, 1004,
20220916, 0600, , TS, 15.8N, 57.5W, 45, 1005,
20220916, 1200, , TS, 15.9N, 58.8W, 45, 1004,
20220916, 1800, , TS, 16.2N, 60.3W, 45, 1003,
20220916, 2315, L, TS, 16.4N, 61.4W, 50, 1002,
20220917, 0000, , TS, 16.4N, 61.6W, 50, 1002,
20220917, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 62.5W, 50, 1000,
20220917, 1200, , TS, 16.2N, 63.2W, 50, 1001,
20220917, 1800, , TS, 16.6N, 64.0W, 50, 1001,
20220918, 0000, , TS, 16.6N, 64.7W, 55, 996,
20220918, 0600, , TS, 16.8N, 65.5W, 60, 993,
20220918, 1200, , HU, 17.3N, 66.2W, 65, 990,
20220918, 1800, , HU, 17.8N, 66.9W, 70, 987,
20220918, 1930, L, HU, 18.0N, 67.2W, 75, 986,
20220919, 0000, , HU, 18.1N, 67.8W, 75, 983,
20220919, 0600, , HU, 18.2N, 68.4W, 80, 977,
20220918, 0730, L, HU, 18.4N, 68.6W, 85, 975,
20220919, 1200, , HU, 18.7N, 68.9W, 80, 979,
20220919, 1800, , HU, 19.6N, 69.5W, 85, 976,
20220920, 0000, , HU, 20.2N, 70.1W, 90, 972,
20220920, 0600, , HU, 20.8N, 70.7W, 95, 965,
20220920, 1200, , HU, 21.6N, 71.2W, 100, 961,
20220920, 1800, , HU, 22.3N, 71.7W, 105, 956,
20220921, 0000, , HU, 22.9N, 71.8W, 110, 949,
20220921, 0600, , HU, 23.5N, 71.8W, 115, 940,
20220921, 1200, , HU, 24.4N, 71.7W, 115, 936,
20220921, 1800, , HU, 25.1N, 71.6W, 120, 930,
20220922, 0000, , HU, 26.0N, 71.4W, 115, 933,
20220922, 0600, , HU, 26.8N, 71.0W, 115, 935,
20220922, 1200, , HU, 28.0N, 70.6W, 110, 936,
20220922, 1800, , HU, 29.6N, 69.9W, 110, 933,
20220923, 0000, , HU, 30.9N, 69.0W, 110, 932,
20220923, 0600, , HU, 32.5N, 67.8W, 110, 934,
20220923, 1200, , HU, 34.3N, 65.0W, 115, 934,
20220923, 1800, , HU, 37.5N, 61.6W, 110, 938,
20220924, 0000, , HU, 42.3N, 60.7W, 105, 932,
20220924, 0200, S, EX, 43.4N, 60.9W, 100, 930,
20220924, 0600, , EX, 45.1N, 61.0W, 95, 929,
20220924, 0640, L, EX, 45.2N, 61.1W, 90, 929,
20220924, 1200, , EX, 47.2N, 61.6W, 75, 941,
20220924, 1800, , EX, 48.2N, 61.0W, 60, 950,
20220925, 0000, , EX, 49.1N, 60.2W, 55, 962,
20220925, 0600, , EX, 50.6N, 59.6W, 50, 970,
20220925, 1200, , EX, 52.8N, 59.2W, 45, 979,
20220925, 1800, , EX, 54.5N, 58.8W, 40, 985,

Some reasoning:

* In the early days of the lifespan, changes are minimal and mainly to smooth things out. The Guadeloupe landfall is explicitly listed.

* No changes are made in Puerto Rico. However, I do think Fiona reached category 2 at landfall in the Dominican Republic, based on Dvorak estimates and Josh Morgerman's pressure readings (977 mb with moderate winds).

* Minor changes are made over the western Atlantic, becoming a major hurricane slightly later. The peak intensity is increased to 120 kt, with a pressure of 930 mb (as a tropical cyclone), which likely occurred between Recon passes when Dvorak ratings were highest. That was northeast of the Turks and Caicos.

* Extratropical transition is pushed back 2 hours. The 00Z flight still suggested some tropical characteristics and the front was not quite in the center. However, the next pass around 02Z clearly had it extratropical. The winds at the time are increased based on the last run with the sting jet feature.

* The landfall intensity in Nova Scotia (as an extratropical cyclone) is increased to 90 kt based on the last Recon data and slight weakening. The pressure of 929 mb is estimated based on the 931 mb reading in Hart Island and the fact that such was not the true landfall point, and there were winds around 20 kt at the time.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The impacts look to be as horrid as feared across Eastern Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and even Western Newfoundland

Port aux Basques, N.L., declares state of emergency after Fiona's devastating impact
Storm destroyed homes, caused floods and road washouts in province's southwest

Military will aid Nova Scotia's storm cleanup after Fiona smashes region, Trudeau says

Nova Scotia Power says Fiona outages could last days

Eastern Quebec, Magdalen Islands remain under state of emergency as Fiona rocks coast

https://www.cbc.ca/news

[johngaltfla]

Thanks Hybrid. I was wondering how bad the impacts would be and its as bad as feared. The provinces are just not prepared for these types of storms which border on Cat 4 hurricanes and/or major Noreasters.

[cycloneye]

The name Fiona has to be retired after what happened in Puerto Rico with the catastrofic flooding that caused 16 deahs and hundreds of families without homes that were swept by the waters and mudslides and lost all their belongings including cars.

[cainjamin]

Hi all, checking in one last time from the Annapolis Valley in NS. We made out fine here - never lost power, a few trees down here and there but overall back to normal today. Unfortunately, eastern Nova Scotia, PEI and western Newfoundland were hit pretty hard. At least 20 homes were swept into the sea in Port aux Basques NL, and one woman who was in one of the home was still missing. Canada is bringing the military into NS and PEI to help with the cleanup.

Fiona will probably be either 1st or 2nd for most damaging hurricane to hit Canada. Hard to say if it will beat Juan because it hit Halifax more directly.

[Teban54]

Between the damage in Canada, Puerto Rico and even Guadeloupe, there's no way we see another Fiona in 2028.

[PavelGaborik10]

Glace Bay was absolutely destroyed. I witnessed a concrete car wash get picked up 20 feet in the air and got tossed into a massive tree, part of it partly crushed my neighbors home.

This town definitely seen some strong cat 2 winds, absolutely destructive.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Glace Bay was absolutely destroyed. I witnessed a concrete car wash get picked up 20 feet in the air and got tossed into a massive tree.

This town definitely seem seen strong cat 2 winds, absolutely destructive.

I'm sorry to hear that.

Here near Saint Stephen, New Brunswick, we lost power for about thirty minutes and our peak wind gusts were around 40 mph/60 kph (43 mph/70 here at my home). I grieve for those further east. This was likely a once-in-a-generation storm.

[galaxy401]

Death toll is up to 20 now with most of the deaths in Puerto Rico. Heard there was 1 in Cananda in addition to another one missing...

I originally thought that Fiona was a borderline case of retirement but that Canada landfall could push it towards guaranteed.