ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[al78]

Is there a danger this could take the optimal track for funneling a storm surge up Tampa Bay as a major hurricane?

[Bocadude85]

Is there a danger this could take the optimal track for funneling a storm surge up Tampa Bay as a major hurricane?

Certainly a possibility, anywhere from the Keys to the big bend region need to be prepared for a possibly significant surge.

[chaser1]

I'm getting the sense that first light will begin to bear witness that Ian's core is finally becoming better verticly aligned.

[Keldeo1997]

Shear is gone. Upper level High right on top of Ian now.

[chaser1]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1022688973581201488/1023125769087619102/wg8shr.gif

Shear is gone. Upper level High right on top of Ian now.

Yep, with that vastly improved upper level shear and what may soon be a more menacing satellite appearance.....there's gonna be a whole lot more folks here in Florida begin to raid their local stores for supplies

[Hurricane2022]

Shear is gone. Upper level High right on top of Ian now.

I'm expecting 98L (soon Hermine\Ian) to be the strongest storm of the season. It will have winds of 155 kt and pressure sub-915 mbar. it will also hit a region close to where Michael '18 made landfall.

The show will start soon.

[Jr0d]

NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.

30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood

Which will likely flip back to 30 miles west come the next advisory or one after that.

Anyone from Big Bend to Naples should be at least be preparing.

Don't forget about Key West.

Many forget Key West was mostly spared from Irma, with the island seeing cat 1 conditions and relatively low surge(not so much 30 miles east in Big Pine Key)

Ian will likely bring worse conditions to Key West in my amateur opinion.

The way the NHC mentioned the RI possibly is particularly concerning

[DestinHurricane]

Appears to be going sicko mode or about to.....

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/brandenterd/status/1573575882907721729

[caneman]

In watching the last 5 hour loop, the system seems to have already doubled in size. Think we are in ramp up phase. Here we go......

[SouthernBreeze]

In watching the last 5 hour loop, the system seems to have already doubled in size. Think we are in ramp up phase. Here we go......

Last Disco Mentioned this

"....In fact, the NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and
3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from
SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds
during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast....."

[caneman]

In watching the last 5 hour loop, the system seems to have already doubled in size. Think we are in ramp up phase. Here we go......

Last Disco Mentioned this

"....In fact, the NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and
3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from
SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds
during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast....."

You should go watch the loop. It's pretty fascinating the size it's grown in just 5 hours.

[chaser1]

Am beginning to see evidence of banding starting to develop

[Chemmers]

Unfortunately I think this will be another I storm that get it name retired

Stay safe everyone

[kevin]

Shear is gone and so it begins:

[cycloneye]

The 5 AM track is almost the same as the 11 PM one.

[jlauderdal]

The 5 AM track is almost the same as the 11 PM one.

https://i.imgur.com/BlrPDeX.png

The entire peninsula gets to experience Ian, this is a very rare track. We can see who is getting the wind but who will get the bulk of the precip?

[N2FSU]

Last two forecast coordinates from 5am advisory. I know storms don't travel in a straight line, just trying to show a general idea of landfall. This is about a 20 mile shift north, previous landfall was Englewood.



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[Iceresistance]

Recon is showing no sign of a wind shift outside the convection, it's likely inside and it's also likely ready to start RI'ing.

[St0rmTh0r]

Shear is gone and so it begins:

https://imgur.com/U7DYod3

yea its exploding fast wow! not good.