ATL: IAN - Models

[Poonwalker]

Huge discrepancy with how the models are handling the trough. NHC has their work cut out on this one for the longer term forecast.

[weeniepatrol]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1022688973581201488/1023144229670768640/unknown.png

Can someone just toss the GEFS into the trash?

That is GEPS; the Canadian ensemble. Here is GEFS

[kevin]

06z ICON with a very large SW shift before Cuba:

[karenfromheaven]

[skyline385]

EPS 0Z shifted west again





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jelmergraaff]

GFS (00z) has it almost west of Cuba, maybe not even a landfall at all.

+78h:

[Ivanhater]

EPS 0Z shifted west again

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/5fb251914815760e3dcdb5eab8da0fea.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/a14058735f9c3e1b34314fe9663cfb84.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Almost all the stronger members hook west into the panhandle

06Z Gfs coming in further West and trough lifting out faster

[Jelmergraaff]

GFS (00z) has it almost west of Cuba, maybe not even a landfall at all.

+78h:
https://weatherconsult.nl/afbeeldingen/weerkaarten/NAmerika/Grootschalig/T+78.png
https://weatherconsult.nl/afbeeldingen/weerkaarten/NAmerika/Wind/T+78.png

Still travelling NNW at +96h, it's probably going to hit the Panhandle if this continues.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian, Icon, Gfs and Euro ensembles have all shifted west

[N2FSU]

6z GFS west shift after east shift at 0z


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[N2FSU]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[N2FSU]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[N2FSU]

Canadian, Icon, Gfs and Euro ensembles have all shifted west

Not what I wanted to see here in Tallahassee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bocadude85]

The west shifts in the models are interesting, the models that try and take Ian towards the panhandle shear the storm apart before reaching the coast, so that would be good news for Florida if in fact that does happen.

[Seen-Enough]

06Z GFS appears to have dropped the previously forecasted stall in the NE Gulf. Landfall similar to 00z.

Also of note, and yes it's 2 weeks out, but watching the 00Z run, GFS shows a very interesting system coming into Miami at the 300 hour mark and riding up the east coast of FL. Curious if the 06Z will show the same.

[pgoss11]

Looks like maybe a tropical storm on landfall. Wow! That fell apart fast as it approaches the coast. What exactly is causing the weakening so quickly?

[robbielyn]

Looks like maybe a tropical storm on landfall. Wow! That fell apart fast as it approaches the coast. What exactly is causing the weakening so quickly?

Our friend Mr. Sheer to the rescue. Also dry air from the front.

[MetsIslesNoles]

Canadian, Icon, Gfs and Euro ensembles have all shifted west

Not what I wanted to see here in Tallahassee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cross our fingers the intensity forecast is correct if that path verifies. Even with that, a strong TS will screw up Tally for a week.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to get the Hurricane Ivan vibes, suppose to get turned by the trough toward the Peninsula, misses the connection and rides northward into P’Cola.

[robbielyn]

Canadian, Icon, Gfs and Euro ensembles have all shifted west

Not what I wanted to see here in Tallahassee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cross our fingers the intensity forecast is correct if that path verifies. Even with that, a strong TS will screw up Tally for a week.

More windshield swiping. We will know more definitely tomorrow. certainly would welcome the western scenario. better for the peninsula especially the weakening part.