ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

If the center is indeed down around 13.3 N, that is very far south

Would change a lot in the tracks I guess

[kevin]

I think the southern center might mean that the HWRF/GFS tracks with (almost) no Cuba interaction & into the panhandle might have more merit than previously thought.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like the center is consolidating south of its forecast track. I imagine this will effect the future track somewhat.

[Kohlecane]

Wake up and this is Ian... they just had to give it the 'I' name huh!

[hohnywx]

Wake up and this is Ian... they just had to give it the 'I' name huh!

Well, that was the next one on the list...

[REDHurricane]

[cane5]

I think the southern center might mean that the HWRF/GFS tracks with (almost) no Cuba interaction & into the panhandle might have more merit than previously thought.

Just curious why might that not take it more south and east of the cone ? Are we certain that trough does not deepen as well there is strong high pressure ridge blocking a more Western direction ?

[aspen]

Looking like the center is consolidating south of its forecast track. I imagine this will effect the future track somewhat.

A SW shift like this could mean it passes through the Yucatan channel and doesn’t make landfall until it reaches Florida, giving it a little extra time to intensify before shear picks up in the Gulf.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573629245288497154

[wxman57]

One thing we ARE confident in is that the jet stream will be digging south across the Gulf this weekend. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail across the NW and north-central Gulf. This will steer Ian to Florida. Possibly as far west as the northern Peninsula or eastern Panhandle. May not be much of a hurricane in that shear, though.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573624674487083014

[KN2731]

Considering surface winds from the dropsondes:

• No. 4 has 21 kt from SE
• No. 5 has 23 kt from N
• No. 6 has 18 kt from N
• No. 8 has 26 kt from NNE
• No. 9 has 13 kt from WNW

From this I would estimate a rather N-S elongated surface center somewhere around 14.3°N 74.2°W.

The 700-800 mb "center" is somewhere around 13.5°N 74.6°W albeit not very well defined, as seen from the aircraft flight-level data:


None of this indicates a particularly well-organized nor vertically stacked system at the moment. Personally I think this will get going only after it passes 80°W - but we'll wait and see.

[cane5]

One thing we ARE confident in is that the jet stream will be digging south across the Gulf this weekend. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail across the NW and north-central Gulf. This will steer Ian to Florida. Possibly as far west as the northern Peninsula or eastern Panhandle. May not be much of a hurricane in that shear, though.

So if anything if you are including the Panhandle based upon the models that say otherwise they would tend to shift West away from the Peninsula ?

[NDG]

The GFS might be right after all with what it appears reformation further S & W, so a track away from the FL Peninsula. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news: Plane fixes a center more south than the NHC 5 AM position.

URNT12 KWBC 241124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 24/10:42:29Z
B. 13.54 deg N 074.58 deg W
C. 850 MB 1481 m
D. 1006 mb
E. 300 deg 13 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 24 kt
I. 209 deg 1 nm 10:42:14Z
J. 342 deg 9 kt
K. 207 deg 13 nm 10:38:49Z
L. 32 kt
M. 030 deg 134 nm 11:16:28Z
N. 126 deg 31 kt
O. 030 deg 138 nm 11:17:18Z
P. NA
Q. 19 C / 1541 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 13 / 8
T. 0.01 / 8 nm
U. NOAA2 0309A IAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 31 KT 030 / 138 NM 11:17:18Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 030 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Iceresistance]

When NOAA2 first got into Ian, it had a east wind, now when it crossed the path from the first penetration into the convection, the wind is now Southeast. Ian may have either done a new center reformation or it's slowing down the MLC to the LLC to catch up and start to stack.

[wxman57]

One thing we ARE confident in is that the jet stream will be digging south across the Gulf this weekend. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail across the NW and north-central Gulf. This will steer Ian to Florida. Possibly as far west as the northern Peninsula or eastern Panhandle. May not be much of a hurricane in that shear, though.

So if anything if you are including the Panhandle based upon the models that say otherwise they would tend to shift West away from the Peninsula ?

Away from the southern peninsula, anyway. Eastern panhandle/northern peninsula. May not be a hurricane up there. May not exit Florida but dissipate in Georgia.

[gatorcane]

When you see this wording by the NHC expect some changes to the track in subsequent packages. They are thinking it probably needs to be moved westward.

Given the spread in the guidance, and
the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the
track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories.

Finally models except the outlier Euro are coming to grips that it is September and not October. The NE track through the peninsula doesn’t make sense

[Iceresistance]

May have lost the connection to NOAA2.

EDIT: Nevermind, we got a signal now.

[cycloneye]

Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES