ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.

Wow, you are going against low odds of a MH making landfall near Tampa, probably around 1 in a 100 chance of happening every year, but it has been so long that your forecast may indeed be correct. Unfortunately this may be the year.

If it’s comma shaped, i doubt it will be a major or a hurricane. We always get a sheared mess in the gulf and gfs, with ian’s llc forming south of track, says ts at landfall appalach 992 mb. this is sept. i’m sure he will go further north and west with time. this is a very fluid situation. euro was not locked as another met said.

The current location of the LLC further south was picked up nicely by both the GFS and Euro on their runs last night.
The UL trough/jet will be well to the north of Ian, it will not be a heavy sheared system, we are only in late September not late October.

[Iceresistance]

Umm. Are they really getting North winds that far south??

It could be the reason why they turned south, but I'm thinking they haven't found the main LLC yet. Based on the banding shown by the lightning on satellite. I'm estimating the true CoC to be near 15N and 75W.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2022092412, , BEST, 0, 144N, 745W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

[d3v123]

I love tracking storms, but I also get super lost in alllll the various opinions of where storms are going to go this early (I'm located in St. Pete/Bradenton so watching closely, though now many opinions wanna convince me this is going to the panhandle lol)

[Visioen]

Very good waxman thanks for your response.

Prob not on purpose but made me laugh so hard
And i can't stop now

[kevin]

I love tracking storms, but I also get super lost in alllll the various opinions of where storms are going to go this early (I'm located in St. Pete/Bradenton so watching closely, though now many opinions wanna convince me this is going to the panhandle lol)

All we know right know if that we know very little. I know that won't help your decisionmaking, but there's just too much uncertainty at this point. I would prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[skillz305]

I love tracking storms, but I also get super lost in alllll the various opinions of where storms are going to go this early (I'm located in St. Pete/Bradenton so watching closely, though now many opinions wanna convince me this is going to the panhandle lol)

It’s the windshield wiper effect. These models can change at any run. It’s mainly up to a trough up north. Dr. Levi explains it well about how if the trough picks up north, the storm stays out west. If it’s stays strong and in place, the storms gets driven into Florida more eastward. The models (GFS and EURO) are in somewhat of a disagreement on what that trough will do. We’re still far out, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[AutoPenalti]

I just heard from local news that SE Florida may dodge yet another bad storm.


Not sure how much I believe that.

[hcane27]

I believe it.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has unexpectedly found a LLC with an extrapolated pressure down to 1005.5 mb at 13.35°N, 75.07°W

[cycloneye]

Recon has unexpectedly found a LLC with an extrapolated pressure down to 1005.5 mb at 13.35°N, 75.07°W

The mission is over. That has to be an eddy.

[wxman57]

Adjusted my track to about 50 miles north of Tampa around noon Thursday. Cat 1-2. Passes about 50 miles west of Jacksonville Thursday night and steadily weakens in eastern Georgia Fri/Sat. I'm still 20nm or so east of TVCN (consensus). Storms tracking parallel to a coast make it difficult to pinpoint landfall. I predict Disney World will be closed Thursday.

By the way, it may be an open wave now. Never really thought it would encounter a good environment until this afternoon/evening.

[underthwx]

In an effort to keep this thread moving along, I will limit my posting on Ian, so all of you in the potential impact areas, can share with each other vital information.....I want to say to all of my fellow 2K members, to remain aware, and vigilant with Ian, and above all else, do what you gotta do to protect your families, and yourselves, until any potential effects from Ian pass by......be well my friends!

[Weatherboy1]

I was very nervous about Ian and having to shutter up Monday here in South FL. Now the system increasingly looking like a “nothing burger” here, though that won’t be the case further north unfortunately. Can’t say with 100% certainty just yet though, but will be confident if no easterly trend emerges again in the models by tonight

[toad strangler]

Wow, you are going against low odds of a MH making landfall near Tampa, probably around 1 in a 100 chance of happening every year, but it has been so long that your forecast may indeed be correct. Unfortunately this may be the year.

If it’s comma shaped, i doubt it will be a major or a hurricane. We always get a sheared mess in the gulf and gfs, with ian’s llc forming south of track, says ts at landfall appalach 992 mb. this is sept. i’m sure he will go further north and west with time. this is a very fluid situation. euro was not locked as another met said.

The current location of the LLC further south was picked up nicely by both the GFS and Euro on their runs last night.
The UL trough/jet will be well to the north of Ian, it will not be a heavy sheared system, we are only in late September not late October.

https://i.imgur.com/GEAOKf5.png

wxman57 disagrees. Cited the jet stream will likely shear the storm should the more western solutions verify.

[Poonwalker]

Adjusted my track to about 50 miles north of Tampa around noon Thursday. Cat 1-2. Passes about 50 miles west of Jacksonville Thursday night and steadily weakens in eastern Georgia Fri/Sat. I'm still 20nm or so east of TVCN (consensus). Storms tracking parallel to a coast make it difficult to pinpoint landfall. I predict Disney World will be closed Thursday.

Hope your intensity forecast holds. If so that has to be a sheared system displacing s lot of the weather over Florida. Main concern would be low lying flooding and some tornados.

[Weatherboy1]

I will say that Ian’s satellite appearance is improving nicely, with increased banding to the N and NE now showing up. I imagine recon flights later today (vs current/recent one) are going to find an organizing system if this trend continues

[Recurve]

Adjusted my track to about 50 miles north of Tampa around noon Thursday. Cat 1-2. Passes about 50 miles west of Jacksonville Thursday night and steadily weakens in eastern Georgia Fri/Sat. I'm still 20nm or so east of TVCN (consensus). Storms tracking parallel to a coast make it difficult to pinpoint landfall. I predict Disney World will be closed Thursday.

By the way, it may be an open wave now. Never really thought it would encounter a good environment until this afternoon/evening.

I know you're not an expert on hydrodynamic effects but I have to ask because "50 miles north of Tampa" sounds like nearly worst-case for surge flooding in Tampa Bay. Do you have any insight on surge effects from cat 1-2? Downtown Tampa and other areas like northeast St. Pete are very low.

[redingtonbeach]

Adjusted my track to about 50 miles north of Tampa around noon Thursday. Cat 1-2. Passes about 50 miles west of Jacksonville Thursday night and steadily weakens in eastern Georgia Fri/Sat. I'm still 20nm or so east of TVCN (consensus). Storms tracking parallel to a coast make it difficult to pinpoint landfall. I predict Disney World will be closed Thursday.

By the way, it may be an open wave now. Never really thought it would encounter a good environment until this afternoon/evening.

Thank you sir. Educated guesses at this point help us all prepare better. Stay safe all!

[wxman57]

Adjusted my track to about 50 miles north of Tampa around noon Thursday. Cat 1-2. Passes about 50 miles west of Jacksonville Thursday night and steadily weakens in eastern Georgia Fri/Sat. I'm still 20nm or so east of TVCN (consensus). Storms tracking parallel to a coast make it difficult to pinpoint landfall. I predict Disney World will be closed Thursday.

Hope your intensity forecast holds. If so that has to be a sheared system displacing s lot of the weather over Florida. Main concern would be low lying flooding and some tornadoes.

Lots of uncertainties regarding wind shear and dry air in the Gulf. New member of my team this year is from Miami. He wrote his masters thesis on tornadoes in hurricanes.