ATL: IAN - Models

[Ivanhater]

Canadian shifting West as well...

[SunnyThoughts]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

We've come full circle, the last 2 or 3 days. 927mb at one point and weakening as it comes in? I've been on the receiving in of canes that were once very strong and then weakening as they came ashore. It's no picnic.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not surprising on the total collapse of Ian. This is exactly what tropical meteorologists Derek Ortt and Wxman said will happen if Ian landfalls in this territory...So all we need to do is hope that GFS and other models shifting west continue to be right over the EURO, and all should end well............

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS ever being right

Lmao

Lets hope it is but im betting on the cone being all over the place

[Javlin]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

I hate to say this Mike but CMC seems to be moving W also.Now while I do not use the CMC for real tropics I will give my Canadian friends the benefit of doubt they know more about the upper air patterns over N.America than some of the other models.

[toad strangler]

Wow totally collapses in the NGOM

https://i.postimg.cc/zfKGyNmx/gfs-ir-watl-fh79-115.gif

Some pros are saying it’s a possibility if this goes that far west

[Weatherboy1]

The amount of inconsistency from the GFS is astonishing. Shifts of hundreds of miles every two cycles? Yeesh!

[Javlin]

The amount of inconsistency from the GFS is astonishing. Shifts of hundreds of miles every two cycles? Yeesh!

That could be turned around the lack of others to..............?

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: strongest run yet and SW of prior run with LF near Tampa area:

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 74.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2022 0 14.7N 74.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.2N 77.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.09.2022 24 14.9N 79.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 26.09.2022 36 15.4N 81.4W 1003 25
1200UTC 26.09.2022 48 17.0N 82.8W 1002 30
0000UTC 27.09.2022 60 18.9N 84.2W 1001 30
1200UTC 27.09.2022 72 20.9N 85.1W 998 34
0000UTC 28.09.2022 84 23.0N 85.6W 996 42
1200UTC 28.09.2022 96 24.5N 85.8W 994 42
0000UTC 29.09.2022 108 25.6N 85.1W 993 51
1200UTC 29.09.2022 120 26.6N 84.1W 991 55
0000UTC 30.09.2022 132 27.0N 83.2W 986 54
1200UTC 30.09.2022 144 28.3N 82.5W 987 47

[pgoss11]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

I hate to say this Mike but CMC seems to be moving W also.Now while I do not use the CMC for real tropics I will give my Canadian friends the benefit of doubt they know more about the upper air patterns over N.America than some of the other models.

Thinking NHC will be moving the cone again for the 18z runs. This storm has been a head scratcher from day 1. I thought there was suppose to be strong westerly flow across the gulf that was suppose to direct this toward the peninsula? I wonder what changed that dynamic?

[Poonwalker]

They are doing dropsonds to sample the trough dynamics later today. That data should be fed into the 0000z run. Should get a better idea on this just after midnight.

[MississippiWx]

Very large west shifts from both the CMC and GFS this afternoon. This is nuts. This goes back to the initial formation and consolidation of the center in the Caribbean. The trend has been a farther southwest development of the center thanks to the northeasterly shear. This is what the GFS was showing for so long before abandoning it for a day or so. Have we come back to that again? Not convinced until the Euro caves to it.

[toad strangler]

Wow totally collapses in the NGOM

https://i.postimg.cc/zfKGyNmx/gfs-ir-watl-fh79-115.gif

Some pros are saying it’s a possibility if this goes that far west

Yeah, in this set up I’m riding the Euro like Secretariat. Which has also trended west but keeps it’s pants on lol.

[Ivanhater]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

I hate to say this Mike but CMC seems to be moving W also.Now while I do not use the CMC for real tropics I will give my Canadian friends the benefit of doubt they know more about the upper air patterns over N.America than some of the other models.

Thinking NHC will be moving the cone again for the 18z runs. This storm has been a head scratcher from day 1. I thought there was suppose to be strong westerly flow across the gulf that was suppose to direct this toward the peninsula? I wonder what changed that dynamic?

Yeah. Cmc is right on top of Gfs. Last few cycles have been showing a stronger ridge over Florida pushing it further West. We shall see




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[Javlin]

They are doing dropsonds to sample the trough dynamics later today. That data should be fed into the 0000z run. Should get a better idea on this just after midnight.

I would hope that some have been setting up some weather balloons already over the Canada and northern regions of the US?Old school maybe but seemed to work in the old days of forcasting.

[jfk08c]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

I hate to say this Mike but CMC seems to be moving W also.Now while I do not use the CMC for real tropics I will give my Canadian friends the benefit of doubt they know more about the upper air patterns over N.America than some of the other models.

Thinking NHC will be moving the cone again for the 18z runs. This storm has been a head scratcher from day 1. I thought there was suppose to be strong westerly flow across the gulf that was suppose to direct this toward the peninsula? I wonder what changed that dynamic?

If you look at the GFS runs, two high pressure systems pinch off that doorway for Ian as it approaches. Looking at the Euro, it uses the low pressure as an escape hatch still which brings it over Florida. Will all depend on if that area of low pressure is still accessible to Ian when it gets closer to the eastern GOM or if the high pressure systems build in and block it

[Blown Away]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

I hate to say this Mike but CMC seems to be moving W also.Now while I do not use the CMC for real tropics I will give my Canadian friends the benefit of doubt they know more about the upper air patterns over N.America than some of the other models.

Well, if Ian moves to Panhandle the CMC sniffed out first. Imagine that!

Can’t remember when 2 global models moved wildly outside the NHC cone. Those NHC folks earning their $$$ with this one!

[ncapps]

At this point it would not shock me for the GFS to plow Ian into Yuc at 0z.

[Javlin]

Another huge shift West. Looks like Pensacola/Navarre

I hate to say this Mike but CMC seems to be moving W also.Now while I do not use the CMC for real tropics I will give my Canadian friends the benefit of doubt they know more about the upper air patterns over N.America than some of the other models.

Well, if Ian moves to Panhandle the CMC sniffed out first. Imagine that!

Can’t remember when 2 global models moved wildly outside the NHC cone. Those NHC folks earning their $$$ with this one!

Katrina....remember Dereck Ortt sniffed out landfall 72hrs before the NHC.

[NDG]

There's a reason when the cone of uncertainty is so wide between day 4 & 5.