ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

ADT Raw T is at 3.8 with a .7T constraint.

I think that Ian might be starting to RI or something, but we can only be sure when recon gets there!

Recon is already there, it hasn't aligned yet with the potent MLC, when it does that's when we are going to start seeing it intensify.

[Category5Kaiju]

I definitely feel that at some point this will become a "Sail Drone-worthy" storm. Deploying a Sail Drone into Ian would actually make it the first time that one was deployed successfully into a hurricane not in the open Atlantic.

[aspen]

ADT Raw T is at 3.8 with a .7T constraint.

I think that Ian might be starting to RI or something, but we can only be sure when recon gets there!

Recon is already there, it hasn't aligned yet with the potent MLC, when it does that's when we are going to start seeing it intensify.

https://i.imgur.com/7HttWFu.jpg

We actually don’t know for certain whether or not Ian’s circulation is in the process of stacking, because recon hasn’t checked out the MLC yet. Hopefully they’ll go through it on their SE-NW pass.

[NDG]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

I get what he's trying to say but there was a completely different set up, Ivan was kept steered to the west by a stronger Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic Basin into the eastern US, there was no strong trough coming down the eastern US like currently being forecasted.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ian's still a mess based on recon data, but you can tell from that sat pic above that Ian is busy getting organized. The potential in the NW Caribbean is explosive. I live in Sarasota and have family in Tampa and Safety Harbor, so I'm happy to see the westward trends today. I would prefer to study Ian from the fringes.

[Evenstar]

I definitely feel that at some point this will become a "Sail Drone-worthy" storm. Deploying a Sail Drone into Ian would actually make it the first time that one was deployed successfully into a hurricane not in the open Atlantic.

Hello! What’s a sail drone?

[Iceresistance]

To make matters worse, ASCAT has missed this system, twice!

[Iceresistance]

I definitely feel that at some point this will become a "Sail Drone-worthy" storm. Deploying a Sail Drone into Ian would actually make it the first time that one was deployed successfully into a hurricane not in the open Atlantic.

Hello! What’s a sail drone?

A remotely controlled boat.

[SouthernBreeze]

I definitely feel that at some point this will become a "Sail Drone-worthy" storm. Deploying a Sail Drone into Ian would actually make it the first time that one was deployed successfully into a hurricane not in the open Atlantic.

Hello! What’s a sail drone?

Unmanned sailing vessel with camera

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've yet to see any purely west winds thus far from the recon data. Almost like they are missing it to the left

[skyline385]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

I get what he's trying to say but there was a completely different set up, Ivan was kept steered to the west by a stronger Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic Basin into the eastern US, there was no strong trough coming down the eastern US like currently being forecasted.

https://i.imgur.com/H0viQx8.gif

I agree that the setup is slightly different but we do have a strong ridge steering it west

[eastcoastFL]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

I get what he's trying to say but there was a completely different set up, Ivan was kept steered to the west by a stronger Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic Basin into the eastern US, there was no strong trough coming down the eastern US like currently being forecasted.

https://i.imgur.com/H0viQx8.gif

Thanks for posting that. I was curious how the set ups compared. Completely different scenarios at the moment.

[Kludge]

I've yet to see any purely west winds thus far from the recon data. Almost like they are missing it to the left

Yeah that seems strange to me as well. Diminishing shear and very symmetric satellite presentation, but no west wind.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've yet to see any purely west winds thus far from the recon data. Almost like they are missing it to the left

Yeah that seems strange to me as well. Diminishing shear and very symmetric satellite presentation, but no west wind.

The last ob just came out and there is a wind shift and there was a west wind (2kts) followed by a wsw wind at 3kts...but that is down at a latitude near 12n (and a pressure 1008.8)

[aspen]

They hit another mesovort or something down at 12.9N/75.7W. I think they’re looking too far SE of the actual LLC, which could be closer to the MLC by now, especially with that growing hot tower around 14.5N-15.5N

[toad strangler]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

I get what he's trying to say but there was a completely different set up, Ivan was kept steered to the west by a stronger Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic Basin into the eastern US, there was no strong trough coming down the eastern US like currently being forecasted.

https://i.imgur.com/H0viQx8.gif

I agree that the setup is slightly different but we do have a strong ridge steering it west

https://i.imgur.com/tAS1x37.png

That ain’t the orientation of the ridge on the Euro.

[ScottNAtlanta]

They hit another mesovort or something down at 12.9N/75.7W. I think they’re looking too far SE of the actual LLC, which could be closer to the MLC by now, especially with that growing hot tower around 14.5N-15.5N

Possibly, but it is the only distinct wind shift I have seen thus far.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am thinking that they missed the center to the SW some at 15 north. I am not a MET though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I am thinking that they missed the center to the SW some at 15 north. I am not a MET though.

Yeah, that seems to be the one NHC is currently tracking

[Sanibel]

Hazy-look...Fist...


Oh boy...