ATL: IAN - Models

[Keldeo1997]

NHC might up their intensity forecast at 5:00. Most model's at Cat 4

[cycloneye]

TCVN shifts bigtime west.

[Ivanhater]

TCVN shifts bigtime west.

https://i.imgur.com/WUvyFY6.png

Wow. Major shift West. TVCN near Apalachicola now

[pgoss11]

What are the COTI and CTCI models?

[sweetpea]

TCVN shifts bigtime west.

https://i.imgur.com/WUvyFY6.png

Wow. Major shift West. TVCN near Apalachicola now

Geez! Right over my head. Don't like that at all!

[jlauderdal]

This will be good news for the model huggers as the gulfstream jet gonzo is flying now. The data from it will be incorporated to the models at 00z.

Helpful but until we get a proper center, modeling will be suspect.

That is correct.

Good to see you back so soon after Fiona passed.

[StPeteMike]

Meh, I’ll expect a little back east once more information is in.

[SoupBone]

TCVN shifts bigtime west.

https://i.imgur.com/WUvyFY6.png

Crazy, they don't usually move it that far, that fast.

[PTrackerLA]

Did the NHC leak their 5pm track early? That is NOT the 11am track on the 18z plots...

[AtlanticWind]

Dorian is a perfect example of a storm that the models failed in the relatively short term.
It was forecast to head toward the Dominican Republic as it was forming and moved much
further east at that point.

[ConvergenceZone]

That’s a significant shift west by the 12z Euro but most especially after it makes landfall. A slower moving system would allow that shift to occur over the GOM and make the landfall more near the eastern Panhandle. Additionally it spares S FL from the brunt of the system. Quite a change IMO. Foreword motions of the system will play an important part in the ultimate landfall. Faster system more towards the west coast, shower system the Panhandle. Just yesterday it was hitting the up the Atlantic east coast after a FL landfall… that scenario is now gone it appears att

Yes and the East Coast threat has now diminished quite a bit compared to earlier when it was looking like 2 landfalls....So there is that bit of good news........

[ConvergenceZone]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1023308776712962108/unknown.png

NHC might up their intensity forecast at 5:00. Most model's at Cat 4

Shorter-Term Yes, but keep in mind that would be in the Carib/Southern Gulf......Basically if the EURO wins at it's current landfall prediction, we will probably have a strong hurricane to contend with. IF GFS and some of the other models win out, then we will more than likely just have a strong tropical storm, or perhaps very weak hurricane to contend with, due to insane amounts of shear...


***None of my posts should be considered factual, just my own educated guess based on what I've learned from everyone else who's studied the tropics......

[utweather]

Are the models that are showing a more northern gulf coast landfall showing a weaker storm and stall after that? Just wondering about flooding concerns.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[tolakram]

trend

[tolakram]

Euro 0Z, 12Z trend over 2 days.

[skyline385]

Dorian is a perfect example of a storm that the models failed in the relatively short term.
It was forecast to head toward the Dominican Republic as it was forming and moved much
further east at that point.

Dorian had a center relocation, very hard to predict those when the MLC isn't heavily tilted. Models work on formulas, can't predict statistically random events. Once we had a new center, all models went up in intensity including the infamous 920mb HWRF run.

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[tolakram]

So when both models are moving west, what is the trend?

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles are out and are clustered around the eastern Gulf scraping the coast of West-Central Florida