ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

So when both models are moving west, what is the trend?

The west trend can not be denied. Makes me wonder if the pendulum has to swing back at some point. I can’t see this going much further west and also I can’t see this being locked in either this far out. Sooo… on to the next suite!

The 00z suite will have the data from the gulfstream jet.

In nearly 20 yrs on Storm2k, I’ve never seen the GFS fight so hard to stay west/left and Euro fight so hard to stay right/east of nearly all the guidance pack. My gut says there will be a big curveball coming very soon, like way W into Central GOM or swing back S along SWFL.

[chris_fit]

12 EPS through 120hrs - Battle is far from over (in regards to 'caving' or whatever to the GFS)

[ronjon]

Are the models that are showing a more northern gulf coast landfall showing a weaker storm and stall after that? Just wondering about flooding concerns.

On the coast people should be worried about a surge concern, even if the system weakens from an upper end Cat 4 to a Cat 1 it’s going to bring a huge surge with it, especially if it moving slow and perpendicular to the coast line.

Good point Frank...was about to post this earlier. All we have to look at was what happened with Katrina. She was a monster over the loop current and then weakened considerably by landfall...yet produced over 20 feet of surge along the Miss coastline.

[DestinHurricane]

12 EPS through 120hrs - Battle is far from over (in regards to 'caving' or whatever to the GFS)

https://i.imgur.com/Nxq7zx3.png

looks like the stronger members tend west. gfs ensemble is same way in that regard

[Hammy]

Euro has barely Cat 2 winds despite the pressure even at 850mb level while the GFS has Cat 4-5 winds--this is the first time I can remember where weaker=more east, stronger=more west.

[ronjon]

12 EPS through 120hrs - Battle is far from over (in regards to 'caving' or whatever to the GFS)

I think what I get from it is what happens to most after 120 hrs...they bend back N-NW along with what others have said the strongest members are western based.

[gatorcane]

The west trend can not be denied. Makes me wonder if the pendulum has to swing back at some point. I can’t see this going much further west and also I can’t see this being locked in either this far out. Sooo… on to the next suite!

The 00z suite will have the data from the gulfstream jet.

In nearly 20 yrs on Storm2k, I’ve never seen the GFS fight so hard to stay west/left and Euro fight so hard to stay right/east of nearly all the guidance pack. My gut says there will be a big curveball coming very soon, like way W into Central GOM or swing back S along SWFL.

Also strange is that the west-biased UKMET is on the eastern boundary of the model guidance envelope which is not what I am used to seeing, Same with CMC which usually west-biased.

[chris_fit]

The 00z suite will have the data from the gulfstream jet.

In nearly 20 yrs on Storm2k, I’ve never seen the GFS fight so hard to stay west/left and Euro fight so hard to stay right/east of nearly all the guidance pack. My gut says there will be a big curveball coming very soon, like way W into Central GOM or swing back S along SWFL.

Also strange is that the west-biased UKMET is on the eastern boundary of the model guidance envelope which is not what I am used to seeing, Same with CMC which usually west-biased.

CMC is west based.... And it is west with the gfs this time around.

[skyline385]

In nearly 20 yrs on Storm2k, I’ve never seen the GFS fight so hard to stay west/left and Euro fight so hard to stay right/east of nearly all the guidance pack. My gut says there will be a big curveball coming very soon, like way W into Central GOM or swing back S along SWFL.

Also strange is that the west-biased UKMET is on the eastern boundary of the model guidance envelope which is not what I am used to seeing, Same with CMC which usually west-biased.

CMC is west based.... And it is west with the gfs this time around.

CMC had several east runs overlapping with ICON and Euro. When the first TD09 come came out, GFS was the only dynamical model west IIRC and hence TVCN and subsequently the cone was over SFL.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[crimi481]

Is that 12z EPS track graphic - showing more S. and E tracks?

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF for that it's worth

[floridasun]

12Z HWRF for that it's worth
https://i.imgur.com/O9qdsJx.gif

not good with new center

[pgoss11]

12Z HWRF for that it's worth
https://i.imgur.com/O9qdsJx.gif

not good with new center

I thought that too. On hour 9 to hour 13 the center actually goes south.

[Michele B]

Euro ensembles.
https://i.imgur.com/HVTQeqb.jpg

Pretty large shift west by the Euro ensembles as well.

"Shift west" and NO "sharp right turn" across the state.

What happened? Does Ian miss the front? Is the front not strong enough to pick it up? I mean, I'm happy and hope it maintains at this model, but just trying to understand what caused such a radical shift in the cone.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Icon has shifted east over western Cuba. Hmmm

[StPeteMike]

Icon has shifted east over western Cuba. Hmmm

And so it begins. Maybe not on the 18z but we will likely see more go closer to the tip of Cuba or just east of it. A rapidly intensifying Ian will lift faster north than expected, just don’t see it missing Cuba. Which will also allow more wobbles to the east or west.

[NDG]

That’s a good 50 mile shift to the NE by the 18z ICON.

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON saved loop through hour 84:

[ncapps]

Looks like a Cat 2-3 landfall around Sarasota?

[BobHarlem]

18z Icon shifts right to cat 3 landfall around/just south of Venice. 12z was Cedar Key almost to the big bend for reference.