ATL: IAN - Models

[pgoss11]

Looks like a Cat 2-3 landfall around Sarasota?

Huge eastern shift on the 18z ICON. And so it begins..

[NDG]

Big shift to east by the ICON.

[NDG]

Looks like a Cat 2-3 landfall around Sarasota?

Actually south of Venice, and over N Port Charlotte as a MH.

[Camerooski]

What is the cause for the shift? A more northerly LLC that recon found or was there new data ingested for the 18z suite? That was a major shift, no?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like a Cat 2-3 landfall around Sarasota?

Actually south of Venice, and over N Port Charlotte as a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/xZA0DZz.gif

What is going on what would cause this shift so far east

[pgoss11]

Looks like a Cat 2-3 landfall around Sarasota?

Actually south of Venice, and over N Port Charlotte as a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/xZA0DZz.gif

What is going on what would cause this shift so Far East

Not sure if new data was introduced into this model run but the shift east is massive. Either a rogue run or the beginning of east shifts

[MJGarrison]

Is there any new data in the 18Z besides the recon data? Maybe the new weather balloons?


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[NDG]

Looks like a Cat 2-3 landfall around Sarasota?

Actually south of Venice, and over N Port Charlotte as a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/xZA0DZz.gif

What is going on what would cause this shift so far east

Back to a faster track getting pulled north by the east coast trough before it begins to lift up.
I

[Jr0d]

"Shift west" and NO "sharp right turn" across the state.

What happened? Does Ian miss the front? Is the front not strong enough to pick it up? I mean, I'm happy and hope it maintains at this model, but just trying to understand what caused such a radical shift in the cone.

Just my amateur opinion/observation.

The front that is supposed to turn Ian north is fairly weak so it seems unlikely now it will pull the storm to the NE. It will push the ridge of high pressure over the Carolinas away giving Ian a window to pull north in the next 36 to 48 hours.

After the front passes, high pressure builds in again and this is why some models show Ian going a slightly west of due north at 100+ hrs out.

Obviously when/where Ian turns north is crucial, as is the strength and deepness of the front. If the front pushes a little further south, we will see the storm go further east. If its weaker and/or stays more north we will see the track go even further west.

[NDG]

Is there any new data in the 18Z besides the recon data? Maybe the new weather balloons?


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Yes, there were special 18z soundings being launched across the US to enter into the 18z model runs.

[NDG]

18z GFS is going to be interesting, I wouldn't doubt that it also shifts to the right, by how much that is the question.

[StPeteMike]

18z GFS is going to be interesting, I wouldn't doubt that it also shifts to the right, by how much that is the question.

GFS will do GFS things, I say back to the Big Bend or even Hernando County area.

[SunnyThoughts]

Getting whiplash from all the shifts west, then east...rinse and repeat. Sure will be nice when models agree and we get a better idea of landfall.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is going to be interesting, I wouldn't doubt that it also shifts to the right, by how much that is the question.

If recon & upper air data support the trough that track will start shifting S along SWFL and things will ramp up real quick. JMHO

[pgoss11]

Getting whiplash from all the shifts west, then east...rinse and repeat. Sure will be nice when models agree and we get a better idea of landfall.

Seriously! What a nightmare for the Pro Mets having to put out forecasts.

[tolakram]

18Z init

[tolakram]

Latest NHC forecast for reference

[skyline385]

18Z GFS has it struggling to find a center for 6 more hours which I am not sure of, starts intensifying after it though.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]