ATL: IAN - Models
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Think the GFS may end up being too far south by 6z tomorrow, it has the coordinates at 13.6 N/78.5 W at 6z, would need to take a significant south wobble for that to happen, consolidation appears to be taking place nearly a degree latitude north of there.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Looking at the GFS it seems to consolidate around the southern eddy they found earlier but when looking at current satellite and recon that’s not the case as in its consolidated further north around 14.5 to 15n so IMO you can throw out this run of the GFS
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:Think the GFS may end up being too far south by 6z tomorrow, it has the coordinates at 13.6 N/78.5 W at 6z, would need to take a significant south wobble for that to happen, consolidation appears to be taking place nearly a degree latitude north of there.
First thing I oticed as well. We're still in "take the model output with a grain of salt" mode, given the structural consolidation that's still ongoing...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
So far slightly slower, slightly right of 12z at 78 hours but still in cat 3/4 range.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
500mb trend


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
I feel like the further west location creates mixed signals. It puts it in a position where the trough can catch it in time, but also a position which is further away from the main axis.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Especially the GFS model output, its very inconsistent. IF we get landfall in the panhandle or points west, that wont be a win for the gfs.AJC3 wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:Think the GFS may end up being too far south by 6z tomorrow, it has the coordinates at 13.6 N/78.5 W at 6z, would need to take a significant south wobble for that to happen, consolidation appears to be taking place nearly a degree latitude north of there.
First thing I oticed as well. We're still in "take the model output with a grain of salt" mode, given the structural consolidation that's still ongoing...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
18z GFS is even slower. Ian doesn’t pass Cuba’s latitude and enter the Gulf until 18z Tuesday afternoon. The longer it’s in the WCar, the stronger it could get.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
That is a very strange model run, it just slows down completely. The longer it takes in the GOM, the stronger it gets.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The problem is the 18z model suite is initializing at 13N when the center is at 15n which may make the 18z suite erroneous
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
looks like a hit on pensacola...dang near October
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