ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1961 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:49 pm

Think the GFS may end up being too far south by 6z tomorrow, it has the coordinates at 13.6 N/78.5 W at 6z, would need to take a significant south wobble for that to happen, consolidation appears to be taking place nearly a degree latitude north of there.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1962 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:50 pm

Looking at the GFS it seems to consolidate around the southern eddy they found earlier but when looking at current satellite and recon that’s not the case as in its consolidated further north around 14.5 to 15n so IMO you can throw out this run of the GFS
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1963 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:52 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1964 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:52 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Think the GFS may end up being too far south by 6z tomorrow, it has the coordinates at 13.6 N/78.5 W at 6z, would need to take a significant south wobble for that to happen, consolidation appears to be taking place nearly a degree latitude north of there.


First thing I oticed as well. We're still in "take the model output with a grain of salt" mode, given the structural consolidation that's still ongoing...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1965 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:56 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1966 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:57 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1967 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:58 pm




looks more or less the same as 12z so far
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1968 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:58 pm

So far slightly slower, slightly right of 12z at 78 hours but still in cat 3/4 range.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1969 Postby chris_fit » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:59 pm

West shifts on the gfs have appeared to stop so far...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1970 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:59 pm

500mb trend
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1971 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:59 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1972 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:03 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1973 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:03 pm

GFS Trend for 9 runs

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1974 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:04 pm

I feel like the further west location creates mixed signals. It puts it in a position where the trough can catch it in time, but also a position which is further away from the main axis.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1975 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:06 pm

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1976 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:06 pm

AJC3 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Think the GFS may end up being too far south by 6z tomorrow, it has the coordinates at 13.6 N/78.5 W at 6z, would need to take a significant south wobble for that to happen, consolidation appears to be taking place nearly a degree latitude north of there.


First thing I oticed as well. We're still in "take the model output with a grain of salt" mode, given the structural consolidation that's still ongoing...
Especially the GFS model output, its very inconsistent. IF we get landfall in the panhandle or points west, that wont be a win for the gfs.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1977 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:07 pm

18z GFS is even slower. Ian doesn’t pass Cuba’s latitude and enter the Gulf until 18z Tuesday afternoon. The longer it’s in the WCar, the stronger it could get.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1978 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:09 pm

That is a very strange model run, it just slows down completely. The longer it takes in the GOM, the stronger it gets.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1979 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:10 pm

The problem is the 18z model suite is initializing at 13N when the center is at 15n which may make the 18z suite erroneous
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1980 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:11 pm

looks like a hit on pensacola...dang near October
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