ATL: IAN - Models

[NDG]

18z Euro if anything is 10 miles east of its previous 12z run at 63 hrs, slightly stronger as well.

[gatorcane]

Comparing the 12Z ECMWF (bottom image) and the 18Z EC-FAST (to image) at 72 hours, the trough looks slightly deeper and ridge slightly weaker on the 18Z. Once we see the 90 hour output we might see it closer to the SW coast of Florida than the 12Z.

[chris_fit]

[NDG]

Through 81 hrs 18z Euro is faster, a good 50 miles NNE from the position 12z had for the same time.

[chris_fit]

Dont think the euro is budging yet.... At least not 18z

[gatorcane]

Through 81 hrs 18z Euro is faster, a good 50 miles NNE from the position 12z had for the same time.

https://i.imgur.com/0YRWO04.gif

Can you post the full 90 hour run once available?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think it's noteworthy that the Euro has only budged 50 miles at most over the past 24 hours for its landfall point... whereas the GFS has gone from Tampa to nearly into Mobile.

[cycloneye]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

[skyline385]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

[Abdullah]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

ICON, CMC, UKMET, European, and GFS (even though it had a false initialization) all shifted east by varying amounts, while HWRF was stable

[BobHarlem]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

The Icon maybe? That's the only significant one. The others shifted east, but not much. I'd expect *some* east adjustment, you add on the new north center fix (Which may not be in 0z runs) it may add to it, but I don't think it'll be too far east.

[Bocadude85]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

The ICON and CMC shifted significantly to the east on the 18z runs and to a lesser extent GFS and EURO also shifted to the east

[hohnywx]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

The Icon maybe? That's the only significant one. The others shifted east, but not much. I'd expect *some* east adjustment, you add on the new north center fix (Which may not be in 0z runs) it may add to it, but I don't think it'll be too far east.

HMON shifted from Panama City to Big Bend

[skyline385]

00z suite will be very important with the data from the gulfstream jet.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573829484435984384

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

ICON, CMC, UKMET, European, and GFS (even though it had a false initialization) all shifted east by varying amounts, while HWRF was stable

Well GFS and Euro shifted very slightly which is almost within the realm of a normal run (Euro actually just seems faster thats it). ICON and CMC are prone to random shifts all the time, so I think his tweet is misleading saying all major models shifted significantly...

[ConvergenceZone]

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

ICON, CMC, UKMET, European, and GFS (even though it had a false initialization) all shifted east by varying amounts, while HWRF was stable

Well GFS and Euro shifted very slightly which is almost within the realm of a normal run. ICON and CMC are prone to random shifts all the time, so I think his tweet is misleading saying all major models shifted significantly...

Regardless, the west trend appears to have stopped for now and a east trend seems like it might take over from here.......I think the next GFS run will be key

[Bocadude85]

0z TVCN early track guidance has shifted back to the east, not a huge shift but to the east nonetheless.

[caneman]

Why is he saying 18Z models shifted significantly eastward? They haven't shifted much if at all...

ICON, CMC, UKMET, European, and GFS (even though it had a false initialization) all shifted east by varying amounts, while HWRF was stable

Well GFS and Euro shifted very slightly which is almost within the realm of a normal run (Euro actually just seems faster thats it). ICON and CMC are prone to random shifts all the time, so I think his tweet is misleading saying all major models shifted significantly...

Huh? There clearly has.been an eastward shift.lt looks more and more like Cedar Key to Sarasota to me.

[skyline385]

0Z Early guidance

[skyline385]

ICON, CMC, UKMET, European, and GFS (even though it had a false initialization) all shifted east by varying amounts, while HWRF was stable

Well GFS and Euro shifted very slightly which is almost within the realm of a normal run (Euro actually just seems faster thats it). ICON and CMC are prone to random shifts all the time, so I think his tweet is misleading saying all major models shifted significantly...

Huh? There clearly has.been an eastward shift.lt looks more and more like Cedar Key to Sarasota to me.

I am guessing you were talking about the Euro, here's the two runs side by side. 18Z run was just faster thats it.

[LarryWx]

0Z Early guidance

https://i.imgur.com/DZN7BKM.png
https://i.imgur.com/JZdeSmt.png

For those who don't realize it, the UK2 on here is the 12Z UKMET (18Z goes out only about 60 hours I think). But I think that the "AVNI" is the 18Z GFS.