ATL: IAN - Models

[otowntiger]

Just as I suspected no ‘shift’ at all from NHC, except for a slight ‘nudge’ to the west at the end of the run. Becoming reasonably assured we here in Orlando or most of the eastern half of the peninsula for that matter won’t have much significant impact from this thing.

[Stormgodess]

Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.

They are expecting dry air to be pulled into storm.

[Abdullah]

The first weather model of the September 25, 00Z cycle has been published, ICON

* 12Z projected landfall 971 mbar in Levy County Thursday evening (peak in GoM 943 mbar)
* 18Z projected landfall 954 mbar in Englewood, Sarasota County Wednesday morning peak intensity
* 00Z projecting landfall 947 mbar in Venice, Sarasota County Wednesday afternooon peak intensity

Stronger and 10 miles to the north, however still far south of the 12Z model.

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/ ... 2100z.html

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00Z GFS will start to be released at approximately 11:26 PM Eastern Time.

[skyline385]

Another ICON special, landfalls as a major and stalls over Tampa

[Stormcenter]

I don't recall the NHC ever referemcing the ICON on any of their TS discussions.....ever. So how much weight do they actually put on it if any at all?

[tronbunny]

Just as I suspected no ‘shift’ at all from NHC, except for a slight ‘nudge’ to the west at the end of the run. Becoming reasonably assured we here in Orlando or most of the eastern half of the peninsula for that matter won’t have much significant impact from this thing.

I wish I could agree, but it's been said before, the initialization of the 18Z and 00Z models are already behind the LLC location. We will have to wait until more current synopsis data are ingested. I'm not sure until 72hrs pre-landfall

[skyline385]

I don't recall the NHC ever referemcing the ICON on any of their TS discussions.....ever. So how much weight do they actually put on it if any at all?

They dont afaik, I think their models page lists all the ones they use

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[skyline385]

Just as I suspected no ‘shift’ at all from NHC, except for a slight ‘nudge’ to the west at the end of the run. Becoming reasonably assured we here in Orlando or most of the eastern half of the peninsula for that matter won’t have much significant impact from this thing.

I wish I could agree, but it's been said before, the initialization of the 18Z and 00Z models are already behind the LLC location. We will have to wait until more current synopsis data are ingested. I'm not sure until 72hrs pre-landfall

0Z models initialized off the new LLC, can see it in the early guidance.

[Poonwalker]

I don't recall the NHC ever referemcing the ICON on any of their TS discussions.....ever. So how much weight do they actually put on it if any at all?

It’s not a track model. Gives a good scare though

[tolakram]

0Z GFS init

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

A bit NE and stronger

[tronbunny]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wTsGqCbN/0-A6499-DE-FF80-425-C-A55-C-8-BF23-F6-F51-DF.jpg [/url]

18z GFS had Ian moving above 15N in 24 hours. Ian is there now, curious to see if that effects the 00z outcome.

GFS is latching onto the wrong center, resulting in a more southern path IMHO.

Both GFS and Euro were off when initializing but both latch off to the same southern center (12 hours into their runs). However, what's important is that Ian is currently north of all models.

https://i.imgur.com/fX3GEQZ.jpg

Just checking to see if this is true for the 00Z models now.
I'm still going to wait for the 06Z interim and 12Z models before I decide if Central Florida should "worry"

[NFLnut]

Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.

Quite a bit of shear in the northern GOM.

[tolakram]

[skyline385]

0Z GFS slightly NE so far off 18Z, mostly because of the initialization using the new LLC

[NFLnut]

Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.

They are expecting dry air to be pulled into storm.

Thank you .. meant to say "Quite a bit of shear in the northern GOM AND DRY AIR."

[BobHarlem]

Tidbits view of 0z icon at landfall

[tolakram]

trend

[skillz305]

00z GFS showing a definite NE trend as of now.