ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2141 Postby caneseddy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2022 0 14.7N 76.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.3N 79.4W 1004 25
0000UTC 26.09.2022 24 15.7N 80.6W 1001 31
1200UTC 26.09.2022 36 17.5N 82.2W 1000 33
0000UTC 27.09.2022 48 19.6N 83.0W 998 37
1200UTC 27.09.2022 60 21.8N 83.7W 995 36
0000UTC 28.09.2022 72 23.9N 83.9W 994 41
1200UTC 28.09.2022 84 25.4N 83.5W 992 49
0000UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.1N 83.2W 991 54
1200UTC 29.09.2022 108 26.6N 82.7W 991 49
0000UTC 30.09.2022 120 27.4N 82.0W 990 49
1200UTC 30.09.2022 132 28.6N 81.6W 990 43
0000UTC 01.10.2022 144 30.2N 81.0W 989 44



How far south is that if I may ask?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2142 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2022 0 14.7N 76.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.3N 79.4W 1004 25
0000UTC 26.09.2022 24 15.7N 80.6W 1001 31
1200UTC 26.09.2022 36 17.5N 82.2W 1000 33
0000UTC 27.09.2022 48 19.6N 83.0W 998 37
1200UTC 27.09.2022 60 21.8N 83.7W 995 36
0000UTC 28.09.2022 72 23.9N 83.9W 994 41
1200UTC 28.09.2022 84 25.4N 83.5W 992 49
0000UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.1N 83.2W 991 54
1200UTC 29.09.2022 108 26.6N 82.7W 991 49
0000UTC 30.09.2022 120 27.4N 82.0W 990 49
1200UTC 30.09.2022 132 28.6N 81.6W 990 43
0000UTC 01.10.2022 144 30.2N 81.0W 989 44



This one doesn’t seem to believe Ian ever strengthens let alone RI as forecasted
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2143 Postby caneseddy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:24 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Lol, what are you even supposed to do with this?


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_geps_00z.png


That’s from yesterday…
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2144 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:25 pm

SFLcane wrote:
chaser1 wrote:That sound you just heard was a collective sigh of relief from the good folks down in far S. Florida (for the moment anyway)


That sound was heard since yesterday lol.


I can just hear the news headlines now - ".... millions of South Floridians jamming up Walmart, Winn Dixie, and Publix Return Isles seeking refunds for bottled water..." :roflmao:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2145 Postby shah83 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:25 pm

UKMET isn't at Venice in the same distance sense one might think. It does the crawl north, with a bit more NE bend as ICON and CMC does, so timing can easily have this land further north depending on speed through the track.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2146 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:26 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
blp wrote:GFS on its own now. Major outlier.


This track is going to be a major headache for the NHC over the coming days and the models are not being friendly to them. I bet you they still nail it within 50 miles by sundays forecast.


I think they're pretty close now. But what do I know. 8-)
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2147 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:26 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2022 0 14.7N 76.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.3N 79.4W 1004 25
0000UTC 26.09.2022 24 15.7N 80.6W 1001 31
1200UTC 26.09.2022 36 17.5N 82.2W 1000 33
0000UTC 27.09.2022 48 19.6N 83.0W 998 37
1200UTC 27.09.2022 60 21.8N 83.7W 995 36
0000UTC 28.09.2022 72 23.9N 83.9W 994 41
1200UTC 28.09.2022 84 25.4N 83.5W 992 49
0000UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.1N 83.2W 991 54
1200UTC 29.09.2022 108 26.6N 82.7W 991 49
0000UTC 30.09.2022 120 27.4N 82.0W 990 49
1200UTC 30.09.2022 132 28.6N 81.6W 990 43
0000UTC 01.10.2022 144 30.2N 81.0W 989 44



This one doesn’t seem to believe Ian ever strengthens let alone RI as forecasted


I'd ignore strength on the UKMET as it has been keeping strength pretty low. I mainly look at it for track and maybe changes in strength if dramatic.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2148 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:28 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Lol, what are you even supposed to do with this?

That's legendary, unreal! I was waiting for an ens like this, saved.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2149 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:28 pm

chaser1 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
chaser1 wrote:That sound you just heard was a collective sigh of relief from the good folks down in far S. Florida (for the moment anyway)


That sound was heard since yesterday lol.


I can just hear the news headlines now - ".... millions of South Floridians jamming up Walmart, Winn Dixie, and Publix Return Isles seeking refunds for bottled water..." :roflmao:


These people that buy enough water, toilet paper and oreos for a family of 30 for two weeks oughta be locked up. It was one thing back in the old days before 3/4's the planet moved to Florida in the last few years but now ..? :roll:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2150 Postby blp » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:29 pm

Ukmet blue line. Port Charlotte.

Image
Last edited by blp on Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2151 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:29 pm

NFLnut wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
blp wrote:GFS on its own now. Major outlier.


This track is going to be a major headache for the NHC over the coming days and the models are not being friendly to them. I bet you they still nail it within 50 miles by sundays forecast.


I think they're pretty close now. But what do I know. 8-)


I hope so. Personally I have very little confidence in the track at the moment. I don’t feel like the models have enough data right now. Hoping they will by tomorrow. They’re doing 6 hour weather balloon releases in the PNW starting tonight to try and get a grip on that trough coming out of Canada. I feel like that data will be important for future runs.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2152 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:31 pm



That’s a pretty significant shift surely.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2153 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:32 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2022 0 14.7N 76.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.3N 79.4W 1004 25
0000UTC 26.09.2022 24 15.7N 80.6W 1001 31
1200UTC 26.09.2022 36 17.5N 82.2W 1000 33
0000UTC 27.09.2022 48 19.6N 83.0W 998 37
1200UTC 27.09.2022 60 21.8N 83.7W 995 36
0000UTC 28.09.2022 72 23.9N 83.9W 994 41
1200UTC 28.09.2022 84 25.4N 83.5W 992 49
0000UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.1N 83.2W 991 54
1200UTC 29.09.2022 108 26.6N 82.7W 991 49
0000UTC 30.09.2022 120 27.4N 82.0W 990 49
1200UTC 30.09.2022 132 28.6N 81.6W 990 43
0000UTC 01.10.2022 144 30.2N 81.0W 989 44

This can also go in the trash, for intensity reasons… smh
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2154 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:32 pm

Hate to be that guy that asks tonight but .. last night the 00Z Euro seemed extra late (>3:30am). I forgot what is the USUAL time.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2155 Postby skillz305 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:36 pm

HWRF 00Z incoming any minute now :larrow:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2156 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:39 pm

NFLnut wrote:Hate to be that guy that asks tonight but .. last night the 00Z Euro seemed extra late (>3:30am). I forgot what is the USUAL time.


1:30am EST
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2157 Postby skillz305 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:43 pm

Looking better organized at 5:00AM

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2158 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:44 pm

I'm anticipating a EURO run shifting a bit west of its prior runs. CMC & ICON adjusting eastward while GFS goes Panhandling? I won't take the Canadian Bacon - bait
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2159 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:45 pm

SFLcane wrote:


That’s a pretty significant shift surely.


Landfalls ~75 miles south of the prior two full UKMET runs.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2160 Postby skillz305 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:48 pm

Image
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