ATL: IAN - Models

[gatorcane]

There is significant disagreement between the Euro and GFS even at 48 hours on the intensity of Ian - 16MB which has implications on where the storm may track into Florida.

[chris_fit]

06Z Euro So Far...

[pgoss11]

model spread graphic from Tomer

https://i.imgur.com/kwwgiZb.png

Still incredible model spread within 5 days of landfall. I hope today is the day the NHC can narrow it down more.

[Hurricaneman]

One thing I can say is up until Cuba the models are in agreement, it’s after that that the models diverge from the GFS which means either the GFS is right on to something or it’s on something

[BobHarlem]

model spread graphic from Tomer

https://i.imgur.com/kwwgiZb.png

Still incredible model spread within 5 days of landfall. I hope today is the day the NHC can narrow it down more.

The shape of the coastline really aggrivates it. although it's getting to the point where landfall won't matter so much if the eastern eyewall rakes Tampa north assuming the consensus settles on Cedar Key. I think the idea that it may get close enough to Tampa to feel it is becoming more likely, even if it doesn't landfall directly in Tampa. (Surge impacts mostly)

[StPeteMike]

One thing I can say is up until Cuba the models are in agreement, it’s after that that the models diverge from the GFS which means either the GFS is right on to something or it’s on something

GFS for a while had this pretty far off the tip of Cuba, I don’t see any way this doesn’t interact with Cuba. If we get to Monday and Ian is going to miss, then I’ll put more shares in the GFS stock. I’m just not buying it right now.

[chris_fit]

06Z Euro Not Budding. Says Sarasota/Bradenton. South of Tampa Bay (Better case scenario RE: Surge)

I don't know how many runs now in the same general area....

[Frank P]

model spread graphic from Tomer

https://i.imgur.com/kwwgiZb.png

Per this chart Ian should have already been turning to the NW, doesn’t look like that has happened just yet on sat images. Guess we need RECON to confirm when we get the NW turn. After further review, The north quad appears to be stretching out towards to north now, perhaps this is the beginning of the NW turn.

[Hurricaneman]

model spread graphic from Tomer

https://i.imgur.com/kwwgiZb.png

Per this chart Ian should have already been turning to the NW, doesn’t look like that has happened just yet on sat images. Guess we need RECON to confirm when we get the NW turn.

Actually looks to have made the turn, look at the last 2 areas where they found the center

[Frank P]

model spread graphic from Tomer

https://i.imgur.com/kwwgiZb.png

Per this chart Ian should have already been turning to the NW, doesn’t look like that has happened just yet on sat images. Guess we need RECON to confirm when we get the NW turn.

Actually looks to have made the turn, look at the last 2 areas where they found the center

I see it at 15.1 per RECON is that correct?

[aspen]

Like with Fiona, it’s weird to see the HWRF being the weakest of the three hurricane models. The HMON has occasionally gotten Ian into the 920s with 130-140 kt winds, and the HAFS has been exceptionally aggressive with both storms. Yesterday’s 18z run had Ian peak as a 150 kt/912 mbar Cat 5 in the Gulf on Wednesday morning, and believe it or not, its intensity forecast for today isn’t that unreasonable.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good morning,

The GFS is pretty much guaranteed to be too far west this morning & too strong in the Caribbean. 00z Euro still is aiming for the Tampa Bay, and the 06z Euro looks to be similar. It's extremely hard to disregard the Euro when it's hardly budged for the past two days, and most of the global models are shifting east (although the UKMET appears way too weak).

[skillz305]

Good morning storm2k! Only got like 5 hours of sleep east central Florida here, not panicking but very curious to see if the GFS is indeed an outlier

[Javlin]

model spread graphic from Tomer

https://i.imgur.com/kwwgiZb.png

Per this chart Ian should have already been turning to the NW, doesn’t look like that has happened just yet on sat images. Guess we need RECON to confirm when we get the NW turn. After further review, The north quad appears to be stretching out towards to north now, perhaps this is the beginning of the NW turn.

That is my thinking Frank it is suppose to be going NW right now if it keeps going W none of these are worth there weight in salt Euro has it @16N 1PM and the GFS 15.8N and let's say 80W for both.Use the models kinda of tired of all the model bickering.

[NDG]

The consistency by the Euro of showing a landfall near Tampa Bay four runs in row cannot be dismissed.
I sure hope is not correct, that will give only 84 hrs for residents in that in low lying areas to evacuate.

[gatorcane]

The consistency by the Euro of showing a landfall near Tampa Bay four runs in row cannot be dismissed.
I sure hope is not correct, that will give only 84 hrs for residents in that in low lying areas to evacuate.

https://i.imgur.com/xl2cYyC.png

What category is that? How strong?

[tolakram]

0Z Euro


6Z GFS

[Seen-Enough]

Two quick questions:

1. With the 06Z Euro, is the system weakening as it approaches landfall or is it maintaining its forecasted intensity?
2. With multiple Recon flights happening, how quickly is the information obtained on these flights divested into the models? Curious if the information from the flights currently in the storm will be factored into the 12Z model runs.

[NDG]

The consistency by the Euro of showing a landfall near Tampa Bay four runs in row cannot be dismissed.
I sure hope is not correct, that will give only 84 hrs for residents in that in low lying areas to evacuate.

https://i.imgur.com/xl2cYyC.png

What category is that? How strong?

On the latest run is weaker, Cat 2 based on winds it shows, but on its earlier 0z run showed a solid Cat 3 at landfall.

[caneman]

The consistency by the Euro of showing a landfall near Tampa Bay four runs in row cannot be dismissed.
I sure hope is not correct, that will give only 84 hrs for residents in that in low lying areas to evacuate.

My thinking exactly people are so worried about the 120 and West and East models. If East verifies, were at T minus 90 hours with a major hurricane that would likely remain strong running towards Tampa Bay

https://i.imgur.com/xl2cYyC.png