ATL: IAN - Models

[StPeteMike]

Besides the infamous GFS, concerning that the models (and NHC) have Ian slowly leaving the west peninsula and state of Florida. If the Euro is accurate in timing but nudges 30 miles north, Tampa Bay is in for some mess….

[TallyTracker]

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/iBRQMQJ.gif

6Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/fpgjejx.gif

That slow track inland on the Euro is a set up for a massive inland flood event. Some places could easily get over 20 inches of rain if Ian takes 2 days to go from Tampa to Georgia. Not to mention it would like maintain TS strength for most if not all of that time since the peninsula is relatively flat and the center never strays far from the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574012569123262466

[NDG]

Hope the Euro's track doesn't verify. Looks like because of increasing shear as it makes landfall the heaviest rain will be on the northern quadrant of the storm.

[Poonwalker]

The location and angle of approach to Cuba is going to be telling. I think a direct hit on Tampa is almost impossible to predict until the last 12-24 hrs being perpendicular to the path. On that note, even if NHC marks you out of a cone, It’s easy to let your guard down and then get surprised the last day when a slight change in the path happens.

[otowntiger]

06Z Euro Not Budding. Says Sarasota/Bradenton. South of Tampa Bay (Better case scenario RE: Surge)

I don't know how many runs now in the same general area....

https://i.imgur.com/EGJe40f.png

track and location is obviously most important in looking at these models, but also noteworthy is the intensity. It seems Euro is keeping it weaker than it did previously and way weaker than most other models. While bad, a 974mb (low end cat 2) weakening hurricane is much better than an intensifying sub 950mb storm slamming the coast.

[StPeteMike]

Hope the Euro's track doesn't verify. Looks like because of increasing shear as it makes landfall the heaviest rain will be on the northern quadrant of the storm.

https://i.imgur.com/RTTIbZG.png

So it’s either wind and massive flooding or wind and massive storm surge flooding…. great.

[ObsessedMiami]

The NHC is going to have to cr*p or get off the toilet pretty soon in terms of forecasting a landfall. I know there is big uncertainty in the timing of the turn but emergency planners have to make some decisions very soon.

[tolakram]

Here's the players on the field. Keep an eye on that WV loop over the next few days as that trough is going to be key to where Ian tracks.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-simplewv-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined



6Z Euro so far

[tolakram]

GFS analysis


Euro

[Jr0d]

Good morning storm2k! Only got like 5 hours of sleep east central Florida here, not panicking but very curious to see if the GFS is indeed an outlier

I wish I could get 5 hours, running off less than 3 hours right now and have to get some storm prep done just in case we get more than minimal tropical storm conditions in Key West. A little wobble east could mean the difference between 30kts and 60kts++ of wind for us.

The NWS no longer says hurricane conditions possible for us, but still calling for tropical storm conditions Tues/Wed. This likely means a tropical storm watch later today, my guess is it will be only for the lower keys(west if Marathon) with Dry Tortugas getting a hurricane watch. Further east with watches tells me they have very low confidence in the computer models.

A bit weird we still dont have a good consensus with models. I am ignoring the GFS for now.

[NDG]

Here's one good reason to question the GFS and not so much the Euro.
The Euro has been consistent for at least the last 5 runs of not strengthening last night while the GFS has been too strong.
The latest 06z GFS keeps wanting to quickly start intensifying as soon as early this afternoon while the Euro has been consistent of intensification not starting until late tonight.

[Frank P]

Per RECON not getting any stronger, pressure was down to 999 earlier this am and now up to 1004mb..

[StormPyrate]

The NHC is going to have to cr*p or get off the toilet pretty soon in terms of forecasting a landfall. I know there is big uncertainty in the timing of the turn but emergency planners have to make some decisions very soon.

the NHC has to do exactly what they are doing.
Individuals need to make choices.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 UKMET anyone?

[MJGarrison]

The NHC is going to have to cr*p or get off the toilet pretty soon in terms of forecasting a landfall. I know there is big uncertainty in the timing of the turn but emergency planners have to make some decisions very soon.

I believe they are constantly in contact with emergency officials from each county, explaining the risk and uncertainty in track.


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[SEASON_CANCELED]

The NHC is going to have to cr*p or get off the toilet pretty soon in terms of forecasting a landfall. I know there is big uncertainty in the timing of the turn but emergency planners have to make some decisions very soon.

The storm is still 1000 miles away lmao

Nobody with 2 brain cells is going to listen to any evacuation order at this range. Eva caution is an expensive and time consuming ordeal.

[skyline385]

Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

[NDG]

06 UKMET anyone?

06z UKMET only goes out to 60 hrs, it sped up Ian a little bit and is about 5-10 miles west of its previous 0z run, so not much change.

[tolakram]

The NHC is going to have to cr*p or get off the toilet pretty soon in terms of forecasting a landfall. I know there is big uncertainty in the timing of the turn but emergency planners have to make some decisions very soon.

Not sure what you're saying here, other than they aren't forecasting where YOU think it's going?

Reminder to everyone, these model threads are fun but don't kid yourself into thinking we can do a better job than the NHC. Here's the latest NHC track.