ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[karenfromheaven]

To help with the decision whether to shutter and/or evacuate. The SLOSH graphic below represents a "what if?" for a landfall near Tampa of an average-sized hurricane that is borderline Cat 2/Cat 3. If you're in one of those very low-lying communities on the coast, then your home/business will be inundated by lots of water. Tampa hasn't seen this kind of surge since the 1940s or 1950s. It's only a POSSIBLE surge for now. Ian would have to track inland just west of Tampa. Blue flags indicate water depth (not subtracting land, though all flags touch the water, not land).

http://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHTPA.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHTPA.JPG

The SLOSH models are no joke. If there were a storm where this plot needed to be seriously considered, Ian is it. Don't wait until the last minute and stuck in a low spot while evacuating on the highway .

[ronjon]

I'm surprised even with the synoptic data that NOAA got last night the EURO hasn't budged. They had a lot of new data that made it into the latest runs.

Could say the same thing about the GFS refusing to budge with the new data, one would think ONE of them would have budged but nope

I'm pretty shocked there is such a spread in guidance between GFS and Euro. It's about 150 miles apart at 72-96 hours out. I think most people are watch and wait mode now with so much uncertainty and a rather anemic looking storm. Have to say the Euro really hasn't budged in the last 4 to 5 runs (landfall Naples to bradenton). This uncertainty is stressful for us living along the gulf coast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Intensity on this pathetic.

https://i.ibb.co/drcgNFr/recon-AF301-0909-A-IAN.png

He is a struggling right now. Looking anemic. How is this expected to get to cat 4 or 5?

[toad strangler]

Intensity on this pathetic.

https://i.ibb.co/drcgNFr/recon-AF301-0909-A-IAN.png

He is a struggling right now. Looking anemic. How is this expected to get to cat 4 or 5?

Who is expecting that? Not me. High end 2 perhaps a 3 for a brief moment.

[SconnieCane]

Going to rely on points and how far Ian is away from those points now until until north of Key West to get an idea of how much of an impact we will likely experience.

First point was 15n 80w,(missed just right). Next point for me is 17N 81W, if it hits or misses right we can expect more of an impact, NHC official forecast is left of that point).

Ian appears to be moving NW now and not forecast to move due north until it clears Cuba, obviously if it turns NNW then N before Cuba, this is bad for me and the peninsula. As we know, the further south at land fall the stronger the storm will be.

Not a forecast by any means, but I am NOT expecting a panhandle landfall. My best guess is Fort Myers to Cedar Key. The angle of the storm.vs coastline make it impossible to narrow it down.

While obviously a much different set up, Charley hooking
right earlier than expected and strengthening comes to mind as a bad outlier

My strong belief based on what I’m seeing out there is that IF Ian tracks in a direction out of line with the official forecast, it’ll be to the south and East not north and west. In other words, I think the chance is higher Ian landfalls south of, say, Tampa than well north

I feel like this is a case of north now = south later. As is the faster/more north Ian gets now, the more likely it gets caught by the trough and pulled east into the peninsula rather than being left behind and limping into the northern Gulf.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Intensity on this pathetic.

https://i.ibb.co/drcgNFr/recon-AF301-0909-A-IAN.png

He is a struggling right now. Looking anemic. How is this expected to get to cat 4 or 5?

Who is expecting that? Not me. High end 2 perhaps a 3 for a brief moment.

NHC pretty explicitly states Cat. 4 peak...

[Iceresistance]

Intensity on this pathetic.

https://i.ibb.co/drcgNFr/recon-AF301-0909-A-IAN.png

The pressure has gone up, it appears that a center reformation is very likely.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm surprised even with the synoptic data that NOAA got last night the EURO hasn't budged. They had a lot of new data that made it into the latest runs.

Could say the same thing about the GFS refusing to budge with the new data, one would think ONE of them would have budged but nope

Great point. Though this conversation is drifting into the "Models thread", I'd be more curious if (and how) the new data impacted the ensembles

The NHC this morning pretty much has the same questions. The disco was saying how despite data from flights and weather balloon launches across the country the models haven’t changed and still have a massive spread after day 3. So it seems beyond day 3 it’s still a coin flip as to where this thing will end up.

[eastcoastFL]

Intensity on this pathetic.

https://i.ibb.co/drcgNFr/recon-AF301-0909-A-IAN.png

He is a struggling right now. Looking anemic. How is this expected to get to cat 4 or 5?

Who is expecting that? Not me. High end 2 perhaps a 3 for a brief moment.

These NHC guys seem to disagree. They continue to forecast rapid intensification on each update


Ian remains within an environment that appears quite conducive for
strengthening. Once the circulation become more vertically
coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat
content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian
moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Deterministic to
Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) once
again calls for a 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during
the following 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin later today, and
forecasts Ian to be a major hurricane when it nears western
Cuba in about 48 hours. The latest official intensity forecast
shows a similar peak intensity around 72 h over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as the previous advisory.

[eastcoastFL]

Going to rely on points and how far Ian is away from those points now until until north of Key West to get an idea of how much of an impact we will likely experience.

First point was 15n 80w,(missed just right). Next point for me is 17N 81W, if it hits or misses right we can expect more of an impact, NHC official forecast is left of that point).

Ian appears to be moving NW now and not forecast to move due north until it clears Cuba, obviously if it turns NNW then N before Cuba, this is bad for me and the peninsula. As we know, the further south at land fall the stronger the storm will be.

Not a forecast by any means, but I am NOT expecting a panhandle landfall. My best guess is Fort Myers to Cedar Key. The angle of the storm.vs coastline make it impossible to narrow it down.

While obviously a much different set up, Charley hooking
right earlier than expected and strengthening comes to mind as a bad outlier

My strong belief based on what I’m seeing out there is that IF Ian tracks in a direction out of line with the official forecast, it’ll be to the south and East not north and west. In other words, I think the chance is higher Ian landfalls south of, say, Tampa than well north

I feel like this is a case of north now = south later. As is the faster/more north Ian gets now, the more likely it gets caught by the trough and pulled east into the peninsula rather than being left behind and limping into the northern Gulf.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That’s my understanding as well. If it tracks on the northern/eastern side of the cone for now and crosses Cuba a little sooner it will be in time to meet the trough who will yank it NE. Slower and more to the west it misses that train.

[Emmett_Brown]

So far, the biggest change in structure that I see is that recon found a decent sized area of W winds. So it could be argued that Ian is finally more than just a wave axis. The potential for Ian to be a major is obviously still there, but thankfully he's taking his time.

[Jr0d]

http://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHTPA.JPG

That is a but concerning to see so much area vulnerable to 15'+ of surge. With Ian, I hope the compact size will limit surge.

My grandmom and aunt live in the Clearwater/Safety Harbor area. My grandmom's place is the stronger structure and around 30' above sea level. I will have to give them a call soon and see what their plan is. With her being 95 years old evacuating is difficult but not as bad having no power for an extended period of time.

[cane5]

Intensity on this pathetic.

https://i.ibb.co/drcgNFr/recon-AF301-0909-A-IAN.png

He is a struggling right now. Looking anemic. How is this expected to get to cat 4 or 5?

Nobody is projecting that perhaps a 3. It’s called rapid intensivication where a storm can change wind strength upwards to 50 miles an hour in one day.

[Jr0d]

.... The potential for Ian to be a major is obviously still there, but thankfully he's taking his time.

I am about 99% certain this will be a major.

Fir now Ian is taking his time, but once this gets stacked it will be off to the races.

If Ian is not a hurricane by this time tomorrow, I will be shocked.

[tolakram]

Nothing unexpected yet. HWRF has Ian starting at 1001 and rising to 1004 before starting a slow ramp up to 995 some time this evening. If it's still weak by recon tonight then something unexpected is going on in my opinion.

[MGC]

Ian has plenty of water to traverse and time to intensify into a major. Expect the center to locate under the MLC today. For those of you concerned with surge, I'd keep an eye on its wind radius. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best......MGC

[crimi481]

Fiona's tail gas been disrupting Ian. Amazing?

[Hurricaneman]

There is a new convective burst over the center, looks to be fully aligned now, let the games begin

[toad strangler]

He is a struggling right now. Looking anemic. How is this expected to get to cat 4 or 5?

Who is expecting that? Not me. High end 2 perhaps a 3 for a brief moment.

These NHC guys seem to disagree. They continue to forecast rapid intensification on each update


Ian remains within an environment that appears quite conducive for
strengthening. Once the circulation become more vertically
coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat
content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian
moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Deterministic to
Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) once
again calls for a 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during
the following 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin later today, and
forecasts Ian to be a major hurricane when it nears western
Cuba in about 48 hours. The latest official intensity forecast
shows a similar peak intensity around 72 h over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as the previous advisory.

Ya before crossing the lattitude of Cuba I can see that. Afterwards,

Farther East = deeper
Farther West = weaker

[tolakram]

Structure looks great, but so far no big convection.