ATL: IAN - Models

[LarryWx]

12z icon, right of 6z by a good amount (6z was north of tampa)

https://i.imgur.com/iiO3iVb.png

That is a less serious track for Tampa Bay on 12Z ICON vs 6Z regarding storm surge if I'm not mistaken?

[tolakram]

Is the NAM even worth talking about? It's track has shifted quite a bit to the EURO fwiw.

Depends. The NAM is superior at upper levels ... sometimes. Track can be modified by intensity though and the NAM is a mesoscale model so can over intensify systems, etc. etc.

[NDG]

What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

https://i.imgur.com/mvw3WLO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Jlhg7KS.gif

Once the Euro locks onto a storm in this range like it appears to have done with Ian it can be amazingly accurate. We will see what happens but no doubt the western FL peninsula’s risk level has increased.

NHC cone is still in the big bend so best to avoid speculations, and here is also last year's verification. Euro does significantly worse than the GFS in the 48-96 hr period where we are right now.

https://i.imgur.com/sHYLiKH.png

You can't go by last year, every year and with every storm they are different.
The GFS failed with Fiona's cyclogenesis and initial track over NE PR instead of eastern DR but with Earl the Euro didn't do that well in the beginning showing it weaker and with a more westward track.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon, right of 6z by a good amount (6z was north of tampa)

https://i.imgur.com/iiO3iVb.png

That is a less serious track for Tampa Bay on 12Z ICON vs 6Z regarding storm surge if I'm not mistaken?

If it goes exactly that, yeah, although bayshore dr would get a lot of surge, not the entire bay. Slightly north is a different story. I wouldn't play around.

[NDG]

Is the NAM even worth talking about? It's track has shifted quite a bit to the EURO fwiw.

Sometimes I look at it for trends which the GFS may follow.

Edit: I actually don't see that it shifted towards the Euro, it has been very far to the right all along, if anything it has shifted to the left, but still well to the right of the GFS.

[cane5]

12z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/jQmVbJv.gif

So excuse my ignorance but is this a forward looking model that feeds info into the Euro and GFS and if that’s the case can we expect a shift away from the panhandle and near Port Charlotte ?

[BobHarlem]

12z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/jQmVbJv.gif

So excuse my ignorance but is this a forward looking model that feeds info into the Euro and GFS and if that’s the case can we expect a shift away from the panhandle and near Port Charlotte ?

No, it's completely independent of those, it's the German model. It's just one opinion, Euro/CMC/GFS/UKMet will have it's own thing as they are all different agencies.

[tolakram]

12z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/jQmVbJv.gif

So excuse my ignorance but is this a forward looking model that feeds info into the Euro and GFS and if that’s the case can we expect a shift away from the panhandle and near Port Charlotte ?

No, this is a German weather model that has at times done pretty well. Like the UKMET it's a decent independent model to watch (my opinion).

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs.

[FLpanhandle91]

Pretty good initialization on the 12z GFS.

[cane5]

Thanks guys how much does the consensus opinion on these boards favor the German model ?

[Kohlecane]

12z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/jQmVbJv.gif

So excuse my ignorance but is this a forward looking model that feeds info into the Euro and GFS and if that’s the case can we expect a shift away from the panhandle and near Port Charlotte ?

No, this is a German weather model that has at times done pretty well. Like the UKMET it's a decent independent model to watch (my opinion).

I second this, I remember the UKMET performed the best long-term last year with Hurricane Grace, If I remember correctly it was one of the only models hinting at a Yucatan hit when it was still getting together South of PR

[tolakram]

12Z GFS init

[Blown Away]

12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs.

Being inside the 4 day period, if the GFS or Euro are wrong it will need to start budging significantly in these 12z runs. JMHO

[NDG]

12z GFS through 15 hrs is showing Ian much weaker than its previous 06z & 0z runs, a little farther to the north.

[tolakram]

Still struggling with center at 12 hours

[tolakram]

[chaser1]

What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

https://i.imgur.com/mvw3WLO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Jlhg7KS.gif

Right; So my takeaway is that GFS might not have been anticipating the slightly deeper and more southerly sharp influence that the EURO has depicted for this short-wave trough. Mind you, we're not talking about some kind of all-out whiff because the GFS has in fact nudged eastward approx 3 degrees longitude over the prior 72 hr.'s. What I find interesting is that when viewing recent 12 hourly runs of the NAM for mid and upper-level winds and trough depth & orientation, it has been quite consistent in mirroring the EURO forecasting this deep trough (specifically the 582mb line) a bit further south than the GFS had been run-after-run. More often than not I've found the NAM to more commonly be in line with the GFS in terms of CONUS mid and upper-level forecast heights but in this case, it may just be the GFS being a tad slower in catching up with what might be a slightly sharper and deeper trough digging into the S.E. CONUS. We're not talking about any large margin of difference however any bit less or more of a southwesterly steering influence could be enough to impact Ian's storm track by 2-3 degrees. 2-3 degrees (longitude) could make a big difference between a landfall around St. Marks and a landfall around Tampa.

[NDG]

[Hurricane Mike]

As I stated before I went to sleep in the wee hours of the morning, I still favor the EURO solution only because it keeps Ian less organized in the short term, which seems likely because of Ian's current disorganization. 

The models further west like the GFS and similar members, all have Ian basically sub 980-mb by late tonight or the wee hours of tomorrow. That just doesn't seem realistic to me given the current state of organization.