ATL: IAN - Models
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
12MB weaker on the GFS at hour 30 compared to the 06Z
Hour 48 looks to be shifted right some.
Hour 48 looks to be shifted right some.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
trend
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Look at the 582 line (500mb), getting further south each run.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
through 48 on 12z GFS the trough looks oh so slightly farther dug in S
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Hurricane Mike wrote:
The models further west like the GFS and similar members, all have Ian basically sub 980-mb by late tonight or the wee hours of tomorrow. That just doesn't seem realistic to me given the current state of organization.
I think 980s in 24hrs is possible. Tomorrow morning we will likely wake up a hurricane.
Ive been looking at the Mesoscale models this morning, If the NAM is to be trusted, we will need a hurricane watch this afternoon fir the lower Keys.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Sounds to me the other models aside from the Gfs maybe closer to what the Euro has been saying is that the trough will dig deeper and move Ian more due ENE.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Trend is pretty clear
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
I only see a slight shift to the right of previous runs by the GFS is what most likely landfall will be, but the slight trend towards the Euro, UKMET and Icon continues.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
NDG wrote:I only see a slight shift to the right of previous runs by the GFS is what most likely landfall will be, but the slight trend towards the Euro, UKMET and Icon continues.
https://i.imgur.com/NX8pykC.png
Yep little by little the GFS is shifting east. If you compare the runs yesterday to today, the difference is much more obvious.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Moving north now, GFS is not giving up on Ian getting pulled but then missing the trough.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
12z GFS Trend
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Ut oh GFS really slowing it down hour 90. It is trying so hard not to move Ian into the peninsula.
Noticeable shift east at hour 90.
Noticeable shift east at hour 90.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
tolakram wrote:Moving north now, GFS is not giving up on Ian getting pulled but then missing the trough.
https://i.imgur.com/XzwLJKQ.png
Looking at 500mb the trough is a bit slower in pulling out. It's lagging back a bit.
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