ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Although it may not be an actual eye, somehow Ian looks rather impressive on satellite the last frames. I think Ian is (almost) ready to take off.

https://imgur.com/grmb6OE

I am still puzzled as to what is holding it back currently. Supposedly great conditions.

[Iceresistance]

Although it may not be an actual eye, somehow Ian looks rather impressive on satellite the last frames. I think Ian is (almost) ready to take off.

https://imgur.com/grmb6OE

I am still puzzled as to what is holding it back currently. Supposedly great conditions.

Someone mentioned that Convective Inhibition is causing issues with Ian, but he's improving now.

[Michele B]

My thoughts on putting up temporary shutters (wood, aluminum, metal) based on my own personal experience.

Since we don't use them very often, they are probably stored in a place not easily accessible (have to move things around to get to them and place them by the windows/doors);
Do you have all the materials necessary to put them up: tools, hardware, ladder, at least one helper preferably with extra tools;
Are you going to be dealing with rain & wind when you put them up? Rain is a hassle, wind is a problem if you're holding up a 6' tall panel.

So consider the above, and add whatever time it has taken you in the past to put them up - you have put them up in the past to make sure they fit, etc.?

my house n mazatlan is nowhere near water unfortunately but has built in metal shutters for security reasons and placed long before my arrival here.. they areblack and solid and donot remove.. these open wide for bright sun and stay nicely set open. can close easily for canes or whatever security reason was imagined on installation. these could be placed in all homes without major cost..is a shame that so many in cane danger zones donot think of using this kind of security against storms. they allow regular window usage and close easily and reopen as easliy. kids can do it. shame usa has not figured this out.

Every geological area has its own particular "quirks."

Was talking to one man who related a story about Charley....that his neighbor and all the people hunkered inside his house during Charley were ALL pushing against the front door of the house, trying to keep it SHUT closed against Charley's winds to avoid the storm getting into the house.

All I could say to him was, "There's a reason homes in FL used to always be built with exterior doors that opened OUTWARD!"

People come to an area from another place and want to build something they are familiar with, not taking into consideration there's a REASON homes in FL have doors that open outward, as opposed to "up north" where the doors can swing IN.

[d3v123]

I thought I’d have more clarity about this storm today (located in Bradenton) and I definitely don’t feel like I do ha

[Hammy]

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

Most people now don't bother going to official sources for weather and preparedness information--it won't matter how much they educate the public if the public isn't listening.

[CrazyC83]

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

Right now, every square inch of Florida is fair game. The lack of consistency means that everyone should at least be in initial preparations, even if it just means having supplies for future storms. We just don't know due to model divergence. Sometimes, forecasts aren't easy even to this day.

[skillz305]

We learn more and more with each storm. Just facts.

[Kat5]

Looks to be heading WNW still.

[cycloneye]

Up to T number 3.5 on SSD dvorak.

A. 09L (IAN)

B. 25/1730Z

C. 15.7N

D. 80.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON
A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. THE PT AGREES WITH THE MET. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[gatorcane]

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

Just goes to show that people will believe what they want to believe, regardless of reality and true information.

That's what I took away from it!

I finally just quit trying to explain anything to any of them!

Complacency might run higher in the Tampa Bay Area than some others. The last major hurricane to impact the area was 1921 and they have the reputation of having the “Tampa Bay deflector shield” due to so many hurricanes which look to threaten but pass well offshore (or weaken as the last minute) typically impacting the panhandle or Big Bend instead. They did get some impact from some storms like Frances in 2004 and Irma in 2017 but those storms were shells of their former selves by the time they went through. CAT 4/5 Charley in 2004 was the ultimate example. Models had the area pegged day of but somehow that hurricane veered over to Punta Gorda instead.

[wxman57]

When should I fly out of Miami if I want to avoid flying through a hurricane? Friday AM? Currently my flight is scheduled for Thur AM but this looks like really bad timing to get back west.

I'm flying back to Colorado so hoping they'd route to south across the Gulf as opposed to the normal panhandle flight path.

Thank you.

Ian should be well northwest of Miami by Thursday morning, but perhaps you can convince the captain to pass through Ian as an impromptu recon mission?

[AJC3]

When should I fly out of Miami if I want to avoid flying through a hurricane? Friday AM? Currently my flight is scheduled for Thur AM but this looks like really bad timing to get back west.

I'm flying back to Colorado so hoping they'd route to south across the Gulf as opposed to the normal panhandle flight path.

Thank you.

Ian should be well northwest of Miami by Thursday morning, but perhaps you can convince the captain to pass through Ian as an impromptu recon mission?

I hear Jet Blue does this and you don't even have to ask....

[wxman57]

New TVCN should arrive in the next 15 minutes or so. With the eastward GFS shift and the Euro and UKMET hating Tampa, I suspect consensus will shift eastward. Not all the way to Tampa, but close. NHC will follow with an eastward shift and earlier landfall due to shorter distance having to be covered. I'm still not sure this will get to their predicted 115 kts. Not sure it'll make 100 kts, either. We'll see.

[AmandaInDestin]

When should I fly out of Miami if I want to avoid flying through a hurricane? Friday AM? Currently my flight is scheduled for Thur AM but this looks like really bad timing to get back west.

I'm flying back to Colorado so hoping they'd route to south across the Gulf as opposed to the normal panhandle flight path.

Thank you.

Ian should be well northwest of Miami by Thursday morning, but perhaps you can convince the captain to pass through Ian as an impromptu recon mission?

I hear Jet Blue does this and you don't even have to ask....

Isn't this also how spirit likes to fly?

[Blown Away]

IMO, watching if Ian moves R of the track and the where he crosses Cuba will tell us the point on FL.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

[Frank P]

IMO, watching if Ian moves R of the track and the where he crosses Cuba will tell us the point on FL.

Almost looks like it’s going NNW on sat loops..

[caneman]

Just goes to show that people will believe what they want to believe, regardless of reality and true information.

That's what I took away from it!

I finally just quit trying to explain anything to any of them!

Complacency might run higher in the Tampa Bay Area than some others. The last major hurricane to impact the area was 1921 and they have the reputation of having the “Tampa Bay deflector shield” due to so many hurricanes which look to threaten but pass well offshore (or weaken as the last minute) typically impacting the panhandle or Big Bend instead. They did get some impact from some storms like Frances in 2004 and Irma in 2017 but those storms were shells of their former selves by the time they went through. CAT 4/5 Charley in 2004 was the ultimate example. Models had the area pegged day of but somehow that hurricane veered over to Punta Gorda instead.

I wouldn't say shell, theyre weren't cake walks.. I live near the beaches in Pinellas. Got 70 mph winds from Frances and Jeanne and both took my power put for 6 days each. Irma was around 90 mph here on the beach and it took my power out for 5 days. Yes not a major but we've had enough taste to know what it can be like and should know how much worse it could be except the many newbies to the area. Locals have no excuses. Hurricane Elena plus many other high end tropical storms

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

[pgoss11]

IMO, watching if Ian moves R of the track and the where he crosses Cuba will tell us the point on FL.

Almost looks like it’s going NNW on sat loops..

The 2:00 Intermediate Advisory still says WNW